Corpus Christi, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

760
FXUS64 KCRP 102034
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
234 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 232 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Key Messages:

- Coastal hazards continue through at least tonight

- Well above normal temperatures

Ridging will hold firm through Monday night increasing subsidence
across the region. With the increased subsidence and near normal
moisture (PWAT near 1`;50th percentile of climatology), rain chances
will remain near 0. However, enough low level moisture will be in
place tonight to aid in the development of patchy to locally dense
fog across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Above normal
temperatures will unfortunately continue through the short term with
highs 10 degrees above normal and lows 10-13 degrees above normal
when compared to our climate sites.

Swell periods are finally beginning to subside, with buoys now only
reporting 10 second swell periods instead of the 11-12 seconds we
have been seeing. Therefore, the coastal flooding threat should be
beginning to trend downward. However, with 10 second swell periods
and increased water levels due to the prolonged coastal flooding
event, the advisory might need to be extended one more high tide
cycle. Along with the possible extension of the coastal flood
advisory, the high risk of rip currents may also need to be extended.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Not much change to talk about in the long-term period. Let`s start
with the overall synoptic flow. The beginning of the period starts
out with a low amplitude ridge over the Mississippi River Valley
associated with a mid-level high over the Gulf. There`s also a
shortwave trough on the windward side of the Rockies. Our region
will be under southwesterly flow and dry conditions. The
aforementioned trough will lift northeast across the Great Plains
mid-week sending a frontal boundary southward. This will be followed
by general subsidence from an area of high pressure building across
the western Gulf. Confidence with regards to the front has increased
as operational models have better agreement of the boundary sliding
through South Texas, reaching the coast sometime late Wednesday into
early Thursday. Rain chances remain low (<15%) as the front begins
to mix out thereby limiting the amount of lift. Dry conditions at
the surface will be short lived as onshore flow quickly returns
early Friday behind the front.

Temperatures range in the mid to upper 80s most of the period with
afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 80s Thursday and
Friday. Overnight lows dip to the upper 50s to low 70s. Thursday
night is forecast to feature lows in the low 50s across northern
portions of the Coastal Plains in response to dry air infiltration
and mainly clear skies.

The threat of dangerous beach conditions is diminishing and Coastal
Flooding is not expected during the long-term period. Will keep an
eye on the trends and provide updates as necessary.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this evening and into tonight.
Western sites should remain VFR through this TAF cycle, however,
the eastern sites are expected to drop a category or two. MVFR
visibilities are expected across the eastern sites with a low to
medium chance for patchy dense fog dropping ALI and VCT down to
IFR/LIFR. Any fog that develops should dissipate tomorrow morning
returning all sites back to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Weak to moderate north to northeasterly flow is expected through
Monday night with no chances for rain. Seas should continue
subsiding this afternoon and drop below advisory conditions this
evening. Mainly weak to moderate northeasterly flow Tuesday
briefly veers more easterly early on Wednesday before becoming
northerly in response to a cold front mid-week. Flow increases to
moderate at times late in the week resulting in Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions. Weak onshore flow returns this
weekend. Rain chances each day are low (< 20%) except for
Wednesday with a low to moderate 20-30% chance over the offshore
waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    87  68  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          88  61  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            88  62  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             89  65  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          85  70  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           88  62  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        89  67  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       83  73  82  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ245-342>347-
     442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ250-255-
     270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...JCP