Corpus Christi, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

961
FXUS64 KCRP 112324
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
624 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 617 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

- Moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms continue tonight
  through the weekend.

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms through Thursday

- Marginal to a slight risk for Excessive Rainfall today through
  Friday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Complicated forecast in store for the overnight period into
tomorrow, with another chance at a passing MCS. The question is:
are we looking at a heavy rainfall event for the overnight period
or at rapidly evolving convection? Bottom line is models have
been struggling to resolve the convection from earlier in the day,
and differ significantly in solutions for the overnight period.
To account for some of the uncertainty, went ahead and based the
PoP forecast for tonight from the latest available HREF. Bringing
in the higher PoPs to our northern edge with EWX early in the
night, and then shifting these higher chances eastward into the
Victoria Crossroads by early Thursday, while maintaining chances
high through the day in this general area. WPC has kept a Marginal
to Slight risk for excessive rainfall tonight through Friday
morning over our area, with the highest chances also residing over
the northeastern tier of the CWA. Additional rainfall
accumulations of 0.5-1.5 inches remain in the forecast through the
end of the week (mainly east), but convection could easily result
in higher accumulations. Daily rain and thunderstorm chances
(20-40%) will then continue through early next week as a mid level
low slowly drifts eastward, opens up into a trough which then
extends into our region.

We will continuously monitor the conditions for updates required
to the forecast based on the complex scenario tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Morning convection has kept most of the area capped with a more
stable environment. Latest satellite and radar observations such
fair weather CU across South Texas, with an isolated
shower/thunderstorms developing over the nearshore waters and
along the coast. These will continue to be isolated in nature
through the evening. By tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity
picks up in central Texas, with a line of showers and
thunderstorms slowly moving SE into the southeast Texas and
Victoria Crossroads. The CAMs have a general conensus in this
scenario, but all models differ from timing, to MCS-motion, to
the southern extent of the line of storms. For this reason, only
adding in PROB30 groups for reduced visibility from -TSRA, but
will amend if the models start honing in a viable passage of time
for KVCT and how far south this line forms (possibly affecting
KALI/KCRP).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A moderate to at times fresh breeze (BF 4-5) will persist tonight
into next week, with periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions. A moderate (30-50%) chance of rain is expected daily
through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  94  80  94 /  50  40  20  20
Victoria          76  90  77  91 /  60  50  30  40
Laredo            77 100  80 102 /  30  20  10  10
Alice             77  97  77  97 /  40  40  10  20
Rockport          81  91  81  91 /  40  40  30  30
Cotulla           76  98  77 101 /  50  30  10  10
Kingsville        79  96  79  96 /  40  40  20  20
Navy Corpus       82  90  83  90 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...ANM/88
AVIATION...AE/82