Corpus Christi, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

624
FXUS64 KCRP 160622
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
122 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 119 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through Wednesday,
heat index 100-110

- Low rain chances (20-40%) Monday to Tuesday, increases to medium
to high chances (40-70%) Tuesday night through Friday

- Increased rip current risk and potential minor coastal flooding
  into early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

No significant changes this forecast package. Moisture begins to
increase and deepen today as the stubborn ridge earlier this week
flattens southward and mid-level shortwaves develop downstream of
the main trough digging southward into the SW CONUS. Dewpoints will
climb into the mid 70s this afternoon, with highs from the mid 80s
to mid 90s, creating heat indices of 90-100 and a moderate risk of
heat-related impacts. Specific humidity from 925-850mb nears
climatological max this weekend, then combines with Pacific moisture
through next week, enhancing PWATs to around 2.0" (99th percentile).

High dewpoints resulting in record flirting high minimum
temperatures and heat indices 100-110 Sunday through Tuesday will
lead to a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts. Greatest
concern remains over the Brush Country where greater breaks in cloud
cover will occur in the afternoon. Low rain chances early next week
will increase to medium to high shower and thunderstorm chances (40-
70%) Tuesday night through Friday as more potent mid-level
disturbances interact with the extremely high moisture and a surface
coastal trough ahead of an approaching cold front. Through next
week, we`ll need to keep a close eye on the storm intensity
potential as there will be plenty of elevated instability. The
caveat is the low-level cinh in place with weak surface to 3km lapse
rates less than 6 C/km. However, dependent on the southward
progression of a cold front Wednesday night and mid-level PVA, we
could break this cap and tap into the 2500+ J/kg MUCAPE along with
DCAPE near 1000. Right now, strong thunderstorms aren`t out of the
question but less confident on any mention of severe potential with
effective shear generally less than 30 knots.

Although a bit beyond day 7, the LREF shows a medium chance (45-60%)
of rainfall totaling over 2.0" across South Texas through next
weekend. The ECENS mean shows 1.75-3.25" (west to east), the GEFS
mean shows 1.0-2.0", and the GEM mean shows 2.50-3.00". Spread
throughout 7-10 days, these amounts will be welcomed with open arms
for our watershed.

Lastly, the P-ETSS tide predictions have trended down a tad, now
between 1.5-1.7ft MSL Sunday morning and Monday morning. However,
given the persistent strong onshore flow increasing swell heights
and periods, there remains an increased chance for minor coastal
flooding and risk of rip currents into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Stronger LLJ tonight over the Brush Country will promote MVFR
ceilings to develop, mainly between 09-15Z. Less confidence of
MVFR ceilings elsewhere but included TEMPO groups for VCT/CRP/ALI.
Winds will remain strong enough to negate fog development.
Southeasterly winds restrengthen by mid-morning to 15-20 knots
sustained and gusts 25-30 knots again. By the end of the TAF
cycle, MVFR cigs return, with lower confidence for KLRD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5)southeasterly breeze will persist into the
middle of next week. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
through Saturday morning for the bays and nearshore waters south of
Port Aransas. An extension or/and expansion of the advisory may be
necessary later this weekend into next week. Low to medium rain
chances begin Tuesday night and continue through the rest of next
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

No elevated fire weather conditions are expected through next work
week. Moisture increases significantly later this weekend and
continues through next week, keeping minimum relative humidity above
40%, along with increasing rain chances Tuesday through next
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  79  90  80 /   0   0  10  10
Victoria          90  77  91  78 /   0  10  10  10
Laredo            98  77 100  78 /   0   0  10  10
Alice             93  77  94  79 /   0   0  10  10
Rockport          88  79  89  80 /  10   0  10  10
Cotulla           97  76  98  79 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        90  78  91  80 /   0   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       86  79  86  80 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ231-232-
     250.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...AE/82