Brownsville, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

705
FXUS64 KBRO 150445
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1045 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

The passage of a cold front has brought a noticeably drier airmass
over Deep South Texas. This will result in cooler nights and mild
days through the short term period, with no precipitation chances in
the forecast. The combination of light, northerly winds and clear
skies will promote efficient radiational cooling processes, and will
allow for low temperatures to fall into the upper 40s and low 50s
across the Northern Ranchlands and mid 50s to around 60 degrees
across the Rio Grande Valley tonight.

After a cool start to the day on Friday, plentiful sunshine should
allow for a rapid warm up into the low to mid 80s during the
afternoon hours. Winds will gradually shift to the east through the
day tomorrow, and toward the southeast tomorrow night. The return of
low level southeasterly flow, although light, should result in
slightly higher low temperatures for Friday night. Still, overnight
lows will be closer to seasonal normals, ranging from the mid 50s
across the Northern Ranchlands to low 60s across the Rio Grande
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

The long term begins Saturday with a troughing pattern in place over
the western US, placing Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
beneath southwesterly upper level winds. At the surface, winds will
be from the southeast, flowing around a surface high centered over
the Ohio River Valley. The trough is expected to continue to
elongate, forming a cut-off low by Saturday night, which will move
over the Desert Southwest and northwestern Mexico through Sunday
night. Meanwhile, the surface high will translate southeastward over
the Mid-Atlantic. As heights lower ahead of the trough to the west,
a tightening pressure gradient will form over Deep South Texas,
leading to breezy conditions for Sunday and Monday. Additionally, as
the jet stream flows ahead of the trough and increases southwesterly
winds aloft, a southerly low level jet may form in response, which
could lead to the issuance of a Wind Advisory for parts of the
County Warning Area (CWA) on Sunday and Monday as strong wind gusts
could mix down to the surface. However, confidence at this time is
low to medium as guidance is in disagreement on timing and strength
of enhanced winds.

The trough and associated surface low pressure will emerge east of
the Rockies by Monday morning with an attached cold front trailing
to the south and southwest through central Texas. Increased moisture
from enhanced southerly-southeasterly onshore flow and lift along
the frontal boundary could result in a low (15%) chance of showers
for coastal Kenedy County Sunday night. Chances increase to 25-35%
Monday morning, expanding across the northern Ranchlands and coastal
counties, mainly east of I69 C. By the afternoon, thunderstorms may
develop across Kenedy County, but overall, the probability of
showers and thunderstorms decrease to 25% and will be more limited
to the coastal counties as the evening progresses. Probabilities
decrease overnight. Meanwhile, winds will begin to subside later
Monday afternoon as the trough lifts northeastward and the cold
front enters the Rio Grande Plains and Upper Rio Grande Valley,
turning winds from southeasterly to northerly. The front will
continue from west to east throughout Monday evening and will have
pushed the entire CWA by Tuesday morning.

Behind the cold front, a strong surface high over the northern
Intermountain West will expand, sending a surge of high pressure
southward through Deep South Texas Tuesday night and resulting in
breezy conditions on Wednesday. Calmer conditions are possible on
Thursday.

Temperature-wise, ahead of the front, daily highs on Saturday
through Monday will reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s and lower
80s at the beaches. Saturday night lows will fall to the mid to
upper 60s and lower 70s with upper 70s at the beaches. As
southeasterly winds bring in warmer air and increased humidity on
Sunday and Monday, overnight Sunday lows will fall to the low to mid
70s across inland Deep South Texas with upper 70s at the beaches.
Monday night will feature similar temperatures with the exception of
lower 60s across the northern Ranchlands and Upper Rio Grande
Valley, courtesy of the cold front. Temperatures will cool slightly
behind the front on Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s, but a more
noticeable drop in temperatures will occur Tuesday night with lows
falling to the mid 50s to lower 60s and near 70 at the beach. Highs
will reach into the mid to upper 70s to around 80 on Wednesday and
lows will bottom out in the lower to upper 40s, and lower 50s and
near 60 at the beaches Wednesday night. Highs on Thursday will reach
into the upper 60s and lower 70s on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period, with clear
skies. Fog is not expected to develop, as the air is still too dry
from the cold front that passed through the area last night.  Winds
will start out predominantly northeasterly and move into a more
easterly direction throughout the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Tonight through Friday night...Elevated seas and low to moderate
winds will persist through late tonight over the Gulf waters in
response to the passage of a cold front. Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution conditions will continue through late this evening due to
occasional wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots, but should subside
overnight. Winds will gradually shift to the east by mid to late
morning on Friday. Otherwise, seas around 4-5 feet will fall to 2-3
feet by late tonight.

Saturday through Thursday...Saturday will feature light to gentle
southeasterly winds and slight seas. Overnight Saturday, Small Craft
should Exercise Caution (SCEC) and, or, Small Craft Advisory
conditions will develop as winds pick up to a fresh to strong breeze
in response to a tightening pressure gradient, persisting through
Sunday. Winds will enhance further Sunday afternoon with a strong
breeze and moderate seas across all Coastal Waters, strengthening to
near gale overnight, resulting in rough seas into Monday. As the
trough pulls away to the north and a cold front advances eastward
inland Monday, winds will subside to a gentle to moderate
southeasterly breeze as marine conditions improve. Late Monday into
Tuesday, winds will turn from the north and remain light and gentle
as the cold front passes through. Later Tuesday into Wednesday, a
surge of high pressure and tightening pressure gradient will
result in another round of strong northerly winds, leading to
rough seas, SCEC and, or, SCA conditions lasting into Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             60  83  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               55  83  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 59  86  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         55  84  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      70  78  72  81 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     61  81  63  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...55-MM