Brownsville, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

889
FXUS64 KBRO 022008 CCA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
308 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Key Messages:

- Windy with another Wind Advisory Thursday.

- Above Normal Temperatures

- High Risk of Rip Currents and Small Craft Advisories

The active spring synoptic pattern continue to support breezy to
outright windy conditions for all of Deep South Texas, especially
the coastal counties. A broad and strong cold low pressure trough
continues to deepening over the Rockies and Inter-Mountainwest and
combine with subtropical ridge building over Florida and the Gulf.
The pressure gradient remains strong over the Western Gulf with
models suggesting the redevelopment of the 925-850mb low level jet
tonight and again Thursday night/Friday morning. Models are
suggesting the LLJ to peak around 50 knots late tonight/Thursday AM
and 45-50kts Friday AM. Mechanical mixing starting around sunrise
Thursday and continuing as daytime heating accelerates should allow
for these winds to mix to the surface setting the stage for another
wind Advisory favoring the coastal counties including the Lower RGV
and SPI.

Other sensible weather, strong southerly winds maintain above normal
temperatures for the short term with lows in the 70s both Tonight
and Thursday night. High climb well into 90 away from the immediate
coast. Combine these afternoon temperatures with dew points in the
low to mid 70s heat indices will be bumping up in the 98-104 degree
range maintain at least a moderate heat risk for most of Deep South
Texas. Look for a thin layer of stratus overspread the CWA tonight
and quickly burning off Thursday mid-morning. Similar to this
morning, increasing clouds tonight with a mostly sunny day tomorrow.

Finally, the high risk of rip currents at our local beaches persist
through at least Friday morning as the strong southerly winds
continue to roughen up the surf.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

*Key Messages:

- Windy conditions on Friday, with a Wind Advisory possible

- Well-above average temperatures Friday and Saturday with the
  warmest day expected to be Friday

-Cold front passes through Saturday with below average
 temperatures Sunday and Monday before warming with more average
 temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

Breezy to windy conditions continue Friday into Saturday morning,
with winds out of the south-southeast, as a tight pressure gradient
develops between a strengthening surface low pressure near the
AR/TX/OH borders and a high pressure offshore the southeast US
coast. A Wind Advisory is possible on Friday as the NBM is already
hinting at a 10-15% of sustained winds exceeding 30 mph across the
barrier islands, coastal counties and the middle RGV. Additionally,
the GFS is indicating a 35-50 knot low-level (925 mb) jet along and
east of I-69 C. As the low pressure strengthens, an associated pre-
frontal trough is expected to approach Deep South Texas from the
north, with winds weakening and turning northerly as the trough
passes through from Saturday morning into the afternoon. Meanwhile,
a mid-to-upper level trough and cut-off low will advance east-
southeastward from the Desert Southwest/northern Mexico on Friday to
West Texas by Saturday morning. As it continues eastward and mid-to-
upper southwesterly flow divergence increases over the County
Warning Area (CWA), along with the lift provided by the approaching
front, a gradual uptick in showers and thunderstorms over the lower
Texas Gulf waters is expected to result in a low-to-medium (20-40%)
chance over the western Gulf throughout the day Saturday. As the
front arrives on the leading edge of a surge of high pressure later
Saturday night, a low-to-medium (20-30%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms is possible over the coastal counties and Middle RGV
from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Behind the front, breezy
conditions return late Saturday night and into Sunday as north-
northwesterly low-level (925 mb) winds increase on the backside of
the departing low pressure system.

Quiet weather is expected by Monday, and into the rest of the long
term, as ridging aloft gives way to west-northwesterly flow.
Northerly surface winds continue into Monday and become
southeasterly by Wednesday as a high pressure moves into the Deep
South.

Friday is anticipated to be the hottest day of the period with highs
soaring into 90s across inland portions of Deep South Texas, nearing
100 degrees F over the Rio Grande Plains, with Friday night lows
falling to the upper 60s to low-to-mid 70s. On Saturday, the wind
shift out of the north is likely to limit highs to the upper 80s-to-
low 90s. As the front passes through Saturday night, temperatures
will cool off substantially and into the 50s. Highs in the 70s are
expected for Sunday and Monday with 80s returning Tuesday and
Wednesday as winds veer back to easterly and southeasterly. Lows in
the 40s/50s Sunday and Monday night will slightly warm into mid-to-
upper 50s Tuesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Strong southerly winds continue to impact the regional airports
with the strongest winds expected at KBRO and KHRL the remainder
of the day. Winds will be slow to decoupled completely and may not
do so until after 05Z. At that time, low level wind shear is
likely to develop with winds at 1000-2000 ft strengthening to
50kts overnight. Some lower clouds to develop over the region with
a MVFR ceilings to impact all airports after 05Z and persist
through Thursday 14Z. Strong wind gusts of 35-40 kts expected once
again Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Tonight through Thursday night...Western Gulf pressure gradient
persist through Friday morning as high pressure combines with a
strengthen low pressure trough settling over the Southern Rocky
Mountains. A diurnal wind pattern with strong offshore winds
developing overnight and lowering during the day. While winds on
the Laguna Madre are likely to be stronger during the afternoon
hours with limited diminishing during the evening and overnight
hours. Seas have responded today due to earlier strong winds at
buoy 42020 and are in the range of 6 to 9 feet offshore. The high
sea state persist through Friday morning and may even builds
overnight. Small Craft Advisory are already in effect until 1 AM
Friday for all coastal waters.

Friday through next Wednesday...Small Craft Advisories are likely to
persist through Monday. Fresh to strong south-southeasterly winds
and moderate to rough (6-10 ft) seas are likely Friday and Friday
night due to a tight pressure gradient between a strengthening
low pressure system over the Central Plains and high pressure to
the east. Winds temporarily weaken on Saturday as a pre-frontal
trough shifts winds out of the north. Seas are anticipated to
subside to moderate (6-8 feet) during this time. As the front
draws closer throughout the day Saturday, chances of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase from a low-to-
moderate (20-30%) to a moderate (30-40%) chance by late Saturday
evening. Following the passage of the cold front late Saturday
night, northerly winds will increase to strong into Sunday
morning, building seas back to rough, possibly very rough, into
Sunday afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds maintain into
Monday with much more ideal conditions returning throughout the
beginning of next week with gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas returning by Tuesday, gradually shifting out of the southeast
by Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Due to historical rainfall last week across the mid to lower Rio
Grande Valley, water levels across both the Arroyo Colorado and Rio
Grande remain elevated and both the main floodway and north floodway
are flowing.

The Arroyo Colorado at the HAGT2 gauge in Harlingen is reporting
18.03 ft and falling. The gauge in Rio Hondo, ACHT2, is reporting
12.62 ft and falling.

The Rio Grande near San Benito, SBNT2, reached action stage of 44.0
ft around 12 PM Friday and crested at 54.04 ft early Sunday morning,
just shy of minor flood stage at 55.0 ft. Water levels at San Benito
have fallen to 49.10 ft and are expected to fall back below action
stage of 44.0 ft this afternoon.

The Rio Grande at Lower Brownsville, LOBT2, reached action stage of
24.0 ft around 5 PM Monday afternoon, and crested at 24.71 ft
Tuesday afternoon. Water levels at Lower Brownsville have fallen to
24.56 ft and are expected to fall back below action stage of 24.0 ft
late this afternoon or early this evening.

The main floodway through Weslaco at WSLT2 is at 18.40 ft and
falling, with the north floodway near Sebastian at SBST2 at 12.03 ft
and falling.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             75  93  76  89 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               73  95  74  92 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 76  97  77  96 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         72 100  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      74  83  74  81 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     73  86  74  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ251-254-255-
     351-354-355-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59-GB
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...59-GB