Brownsville, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

145
FXUS64 KBRO 141820
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
120 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Overall benign weather conditions are expected for the remainder of
this weekend. Continued southeasterly flow, plentiful daytime
heating, and weak surface convergence in the absence of deeper
atmospheric forcing will lead to isolated showers this afternoon
into overnight tonight. Aside from a slight uptick in streamer and
garden variety showers across the coastal areas on Sunday, hi-res
guidance suggests that most of Sunday should also stay dry with the
best chances for more organized convection and thunderstorms to our
north. That being said, cannot completely rule out a stray
thunderstorm that develops over the inland area or an outflow driven
convective activity, as we saw on Thursday evening. However, this
remains an unlikely scenario (less than 20 percent chance) given
that a 590+ Dm ridge begins to build in from the west.

Otherwise, hot and humid conditions continue with maximum heat index
values of 103-109. Overnight low temperatures will only drop into
the upper 70s and low 80s with dew points in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

After a relatively benign start to the new work week, the weather
pattern gets increasingly unsettled towards mid week as mid to long
range guidance shows a plume of tropical moisture advecting
northwards into the Gulf of America from the Carribean. As typical
with longer range guidance, the average model error beyond three
days or 72 hours is over 150 miles. NAEFS situational awareness
ensemble guidance indicates that the PWATs and Integrated Water
Vapor Transport (IVT) increase to 2-3 standard deviations above
normal for the latter half of the week. Unsurprisingly, CPC 6-10 day
precipitation outlook shows a 70-80 percent confidence in above
normal precipitation. To be clear, the NHC is not expecting tropical
cyclone activity anywhere in the Atlantic basin, including the Gulf
of America, in the next 7 days. What this means is that Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) could see increasing chances
(50 to 60 percent) of moderate to locally heavy rainfall by the
latter half of next week. With increasing rain chances and cloud
cover, heat risk concerns are also expected to decrease. In fact,
the CPC 6-10 day temperature outlook is suggesting near to even
slightly below normal temperatures (33-40 percent confidence) for
our region. For reference, normal highs for mid June in Deep
South Texas and the RGV are in the mid to upper 90s, except upper
80s to near 90 for SPI.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Generally favorable flying conditions with good visibilities are
expected for the TAF period. Southeast to south-southeast winds with
gusts over 20 kt at times during the late morning to early afternoon
hours are expected, diminishing to below 10 kt during the overnight
hours. Between 06-12z, there is highest confidence (60-70 percent)
of MVFR ceilings with a low chance of brief IFR ceilings (10-20
percent) for KMFE; medium confidence (40-50 percent) of MVFR
ceilings at KBRO and low-medium confidence (20-30 percent) of MVFR
ceilings at KHRL.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected this weekend
through early next week with light to moderate southeasterly winds
and low to moderate seas. Mainly dry and seasonably warm conditions
are expected over the weekend except for isolated showers (less than
10 percent coverage) over the Gulf waters. Weather pattern becomes
increasingly unsettled as we head into middle of next week, with 10-
30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday,
increasing to 30-50 percent for Wednesday into Friday. As the
surface pressure gradient tightens mid to late next week, Small
Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory conditions could
potentially be reached.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  94  80  93 /  30  30  30  40
HARLINGEN               79  96  77  95 /  10  30  20  30
MCALLEN                 81 100  80  99 /  10  20  10  30
RIO GRANDE CITY         79  98  78  97 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  88  81  88 /  20  30  30  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  93  79  92 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88-Chai
LONG TERM....88-Chai
AVIATION...88-Chai