Arlington, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

337
FXUS64 KFWD 072338
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
638 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and mostly rain-free weather will return for most of the
  upcoming week with heat index values at or above 100 degrees
  each afternoon.

- Isolated showers and storms will be possible Monday and Tuesday
  afternoon, mainly for the far southern reaches of our forecast
  area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

This afternoon a few lingering showers and thunderstorms are located
around and north of the Metroplex.  These should diminish by this
evening and rain chances should continue to decrease.  The upper
level low will lift northeastward towards the Mississippi Valley.
Another mild and humid night is expected with mostly cloudy skies
and southerly winds.  Some patchy fog could develop in low-lying
areas where heavy rain occurred and winds are lighter.

The upper-level trough axis should exit the region and into the
Midwest by Monday morning.  In its wake, a subtropical ridge will
build in across Texas with 500mb heights up to 590dam, and 850mb
temperatures of 17-20 deg C. Morning cloud cover should burn off
and give way to sunny skies with high temperatures reaching the
low 90s. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s could also result in heat
indices between 100 and 103 degrees, especially across the
Metroplex. Late in the afternoon, a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms could develop for parts of central Texas along an
inland sea-breeze front. Storms should be brief and severe weather
is not expected and although a few storms could produce brief
gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The subtropical ridge will settle in across Texas and the western
Gulf Coast and persist into Thursday. Rain chances will dry up
during this time, but the tradeoff is much sunnier and hotter
conditions are anticipated. Model consensus shows 500mb heights of
590dam centered over east Texas with 850mb temperatures of 18-20 deg
C each day. There is a low to medium (20 to 60%) chance for surface
high temperatures in the mid 90s. In addition, the humidity levels
will still be rather high for much of the upcoming week with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This would lead to heat indices
between 100-105 each afternoon. Towards the end of the week, some
large-scale troughing will build in across the north-central US
and weaken the 500mb ridge. Models hint at a cold front
approaching north Texas by Friday, but confidence on this is low.
For now, some low (<20%) chances of rain were included for
northern counties for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR and gusty south flow should prevail through the evening at all
terminals. We opted to not include gusts in the prevailing line of
the TAFs since gust spreads should generally remain AOB 10 kts.

MVFR ceilings should engulf the entire region tonight. While lower
ceilings will generally move from S to N, we`re not expecting a
sheet of stratus to move north through the night. Instead, the
moisture supporting the existing shallow cumulus should stratify
into a lowering sheet of stratus, eventually bottoming out between
1,000 and 2,000 ft AGL. There is a 20-30% chance of IFR ceilings
late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Ceilings should lift and
scatter with the typical diurnal trends, allowing VFR to prevail
at all terminals by mid-afternoon.

Scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop near the
coast early in the day that spread northward along an enhanced
seabreeze front. These will make a run at the ACT terminal in the
afternoon, but we are not confident enough to include VCTS or even
PROB30 at this time. However, this will need to be monitored for
future TAFs.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  92  75  92 /   0   0   0   0
Waco                74  89  74  90 /   0   0   0   0
Paris               73  89  75  90 /  10   0   0   0
Denton              75  91  75  91 /   0   0   0   0
McKinney            75  90  76  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dallas              75  93  76  93 /  10   0   0   0
Terrell             73  91  74  92 /  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           75  92  74  94 /   0   0   0   0
Temple              75  90  74  91 /   0  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  93  73  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kearney
LONG TERM....Kearney
AVIATION...Bonnette