Arlington, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

771
FXUS64 KFWD 090001
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
701 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms will continue through the evening,
  and additional thunderstorm activity is expected on Wednesday.
  Some storms may be on the stronger side, with the risk for gusty
  winds and small hail.

- Thursday and Friday should clear out before low rain chances
  (15-30%) return to the region this weekend.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected, with
  highs through the beginning of next week to remain in the low
  and mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1246 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025/
/Through Tomorrow Night/

...Today and Tonight...

A weak upper-level disturbance will slowly drift south across the
Great Plains over the course of today. Morning convection in the
Central Plains associated with this disturbance has generated a
southward moving outflow boundary, serving as a focus point for
additional convective development which is already underway this
afternoon across portions of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Further to
the south across portions of Southeast and Eastern Texas,
scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms continue to develop and
slowly expand to the north. While these storms should remain east
of I-35 and south of I-20, there is much more uncertainty with
convective evolution from storms approaching the region from the
north.

With minimal CIN across Northern TX (sourced from ACARS soundings
at DFW and DAL), and weak, yet broad forcing for ascent from the
disturbance to the north, it seems probable that at least isolated
thunderstorms should develop across much of North Texas within
the next couple of hours. In general, the higher rain chances
(40-50%) will be east of US-75/I-45 across Northeast Texas. Lower
rain chances (15-30%) extend west into the Big Country. These
storms should by and large remain below severe limits, but an
isolated instance or two of a severe wind gust cannot be ruled
out, particularly if a more organized cluster of storms or MCS can
move into the region from Oklahoma later this evening. Any
potential for severe winds gusts will largely remain north of I-20
and east of US-281. It is also important to note, even though the
above scenario is the general consensus amongst short term
guidance, there is still substantial uncertainty in exact
location, intensity, and evolution of storms today. The vast
majority of ongoing storms this evening will dissipate with the
loss of diurnal heating. However, there is a very low chance
(10-15%) of a stray shower or thunderstorm lingering through the
overnight hours as slightly stronger forcing for ascent arrives
from the north.

...Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night...

The Central Great Plains trough is expected to continue its slow
progression to the south, with its axis roughly along or just
north of the Red River Valley by tomorrow afternoon. Diurnally
driven convection will once again develop across much of North and
Central Texas by the afternoon hours, with highest precipitation
chances (40-50%) across East Texas, diminishing with westward
extent (15-30% west of I-35). Storms are not expected to be
severe, but as with any summer-time convection, may produce
frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Due to the weak
synoptic forcing in place across the region, storms may linger
longer into the late evening/early overnight hours compared to
storms today. As such, the vast majority of activity should still
diminish by midnight tomorrow night.


Darrah

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1246 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025/
/Thursday through Monday/

Synoptic scale subsidence will build into the region by the end of
the week, suppressing diurnally driven convection Thursday and
Friday afternoons. Though ridging will build out west, near or
slightly below normal heights, and high boundary layer humidity
will keep afternoon temperatures near, or slightly below normal
(in the low to mid 90s). Peak heat indices will range from 95 to
105 each afternoon. Though medium range guidance trends closer to
near-normal temperatures for the weekend, rain chances (20-40%)
will also return across the region. As such, there is still
substantial uncertainty with high temperatures this weekend
onward, which will largely be dependent on how convection develops
and evolves during the afternoon and evening hours.


Darrah

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Scattered thunderstorms continue to impact most of D10 this
evening, with numerous outflow boundary interactions igniting new
thunderstorms near the Metroplex TAF sites. Expect 1-2 more hours
of TSRA impacts at North Texas airports (especially DFW and DAL)
with periods of heavy rain and erratic gusty winds of 30-40 kts.
Activity will dissipate around or after sunset. Variable winds
will recover to southerly following the dissipation of convection,
and south flow will prevail into Wednesday with VFR skies.
Additional chances for showers and storms exist tomorrow
afternoon, and VCSH has been introduced to all airports towards
the end of the valid period.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  92  75  94  76 /  20  30  20   5   0
Waco                74  88  73  91  74 /  20  40  20   5   0
Paris               72  90  72  93  75 /  30  40  20  10   0
Denton              74  93  73  95  75 /  10  30  20   0   0
McKinney            74  92  74  94  76 /  30  30  20   5   0
Dallas              76  94  75  96  77 /  20  30  20   5   0
Terrell             74  91  73  93  74 /  30  50  20  10   0
Corsicana           75  91  75  94  76 /  30  50  20  10   0
Temple              73  88  72  91  74 /  20  40  20   5   0
Mineral Wells       73  93  72  95  74 /  10  20  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$