Amarillo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

111
FXUS64 KAMA 221116
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
516 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 336 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

- Above average temperatures in the 60s to low 70s today.

- Cooler temperatures arrive tomorrow and Tuesday with low clouds
  and fog possible across the east the next two mornings.

- Low precipitation chances return late Christmas Day into
  Thursday, but uncertainty remains high.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 336 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

It`s another day of weak northwest flow aloft, allowing for
highs 10-20 degrees above seasonal averages for late December.
Clear skies and a southwest breeze will help temperatures rise
well into the 60s, with a few localized spots even reaching 70
this afternoon. Other than that, it will be a very quiet day
weather wise until a weak cold front drops south across the area
overnight.

As a sfc low develops and moves south of the Panhandles,
northerly winds will begin to draw in cooler air, along with
slightly higher dew points across the far eastern Panhandles.
Areas of low clouds and fog could develop as a result overnight
into Monday morning. Based on strong signal from HRRR forecast
visibility and at least decent support from other model forecast
soundings showing saturated lower levels, if any fog does develop,
it could be dense leading to reduced visibility during the
morning commute. Latest hi-res data currently indicates a 40-70%
chance for visibility less than 1 mile, although coarser model
guidance suggests only about a 20% probability for dense fog. Any
fog will likely lift through the day, but clouds will linger for a
majority of the CWA, making for a seasonal and dreary December
day with highs in the 50s. Don`t be surprised if cloud cover keeps
some locations in the east from even reaching 50 degrees.

Winds will shift out of the northeast as the sfc low departs and
an H500 trough moves overhead tomorrow night, further increasing
WAA and moisture return to the eastern and potentially even
central Panhandles. We`ll be on the lookout for fog again
(potentially dense) late Monday into early Tuesday, which could
impact the morning commute. Increased lift from the upper level
disturbance may even be enough to squeeze out some light drizzle,
but the chance for any measurable precipitation remains less than
10%.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Christmas Eve will find the Panhandles in between systems, with
clear skies, light winds, and highs around average in the 50s. By
Wednesday, southwest flow aloft ahead of another disturbance hot
on the heels of its predecessor, will aid lee sfc cyclogenesis
over SE Colorado. Southerly winds around 20 mph gusting up to 30
mph will set up over the Panhandles as a result of the tightening
pressure gradient, making for a breezy Christmas. Model
disagreement is still quite stark, leading to continued low
confidence in any precipitation chances with this system. The GFS
tracks the closed low over the northern combined Panhandles,
pulling a dry slot to most of the region, meaning lower precip
chances other than the far northern Panhandles. The latest ECMWF
on the hand, takes the core of the low directly over the heart of
the CWA, lending enough lift and moisture to generate better
shower chances. Split the difference, and you get the latest NBM
forecast, placing 20-30% POPs across the NE half of the
Panhandles. If precip can occur, it looks like it will likely be
rain (unless a stronger push of colder air moves in), and would
only be a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of rain.

Thursday onward, ensembles diverge even more, but continue to
depict additional systems approaching the high Plains. Given the
quick frequency of these disturbances, any meaningful moisture
return to the region would be in doubt, lending low confidence in
precip. Overall, expect near to above average temperatures with a
slow warming trend into next weekend.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated at all sites throughout the period.
Winds will be out of the south at 5-15 kts this morning-afternoon,
before turning out of the north behind a front this evening.
Cloud decks will move in behind the front overnight, but should
remain above impactful thresholds.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                68  33  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  64  29  51  33 /   0   0  10  10
Boise City OK              68  33  53  29 /   0   0   0  10
Borger TX                  69  33  53  34 /   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              67  31  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  68  34  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               67  35  55  39 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 66  30  55  28 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  64  29  52  29 /   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX                69  34  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                64  35  52  37 /   0   0  10  10
Pampa TX                   66  34  52  37 /   0   0  10  10
Shamrock TX                64  39  55  41 /   0  10  10   0
Wellington TX              65  40  58  42 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38