Amarillo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

160
FXUS64 KAMA 282329
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible each day through Wednesday. A few
  strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today, and
  there is a very low chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm
  each day after.

- Widespread mid 90s to 100 degree temperatures are expected for
  today and Monday. 90s are expected to return through the rest of
  the week, and 100s are favored to return for the Holiday
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Mesoanalysis shows our synoptic pattern remains characterized by
high pressure to our southeast and low pressure to our northwest,
positioning southwest flow aloft over the region. This regime is
helping a surface low deepen over eastern CO, placing a tighter
pressure gradient over the Panhandles once again. It`s even breezier
today with southwest winds sustained 20-30 mph, gusting up to 40 mph
in some locations. This breeze will thankfully help high
temperatures of 100-108 feel more bearable, but not completely
negate the effects of the dangerous heat.

Storm chances still exist this afternoon-evening when a weak
disturbance within the flow is set to arrive. A mass influx of 700mb
theta-e is being advected northward over the southeast TX Panhandle,
with surface winds staying more out of the south-southeast across
the eastern Panhandles. This is helping maintain 50s-60s dew points
over the area. Better low level lift along a pseudo dryline/sfc
trough will ensue, increasing the odds of convective development
primarily across the far south-southeast TX Panhandle. HREF guidance
places 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE along and east of this boundary, along
with 20-25 kts of bulk shear. DCAPE values are not as stout as
recent days, but inverted-v signatures can still be found in
forecast soundings with steep low-level lapse rates, indicating the
potential for severe damaging wind gusts with any storms. Some small
hail could occur as well, but relatively warm 500mb temperatures
will make it difficult to achieve severe hail sizes. In general, hi-
res CAMs continue to depict spotty storm development across the
southeastern Texas Panhandle, lifting north-northeast through the
evening hours. It`s worth noting though that weak forcing and some
dry air entrainment may cause storms to struggle developing, much
like we saw yesterday. Regardless, the likelihood of seeing
appreciable rainfall is still rather low today, but still enough to
support 15-30% POPs for these areas from about 4 PM to 12 AM. If any
stronger storm can sustain itself where best moisture exists,
locally heavier downpours may lead to very low flash flooding
chances.

Monday will be very similar to today both from the synoptic and
mesoscale perspective. The main difference will be closer proximity
to stronger low pressure, which will help keep us a few degrees
cooler while drawing better moisture to more of the region. Gusty
south winds won`t go away, and highs in the upper 90s to low 100s
are still forecast across the region. Rather than being confined to
the SE Panhandles, 50s to mid 60s dew points are slated to spread
westward over the central Panhandles, where the dryline/sfc trough
will act as a focal point for storm initiation in the afternoon to
evening hours yet again. Hi-res data suggests storm coverage will be
greater compared to previous days, with a southwest to northeast
oriented line of storms popping up along the boundary. CAPE values
will be comparable to today, but weaker deep layer shear could
prevent storms from becoming more organized. However, forecast DCAPE
values are over 2000 J/kg again, so anything that develops could
easily produce strong/severe downburst winds. Locally heavy
downpours have a better chance of occurring with tomorrow`s
convection, primarily along and east of the HWY 60 corridor (10-40%
chance for >0.5" of rain).

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Our upper level pattern remains largely unchanged through Tue-Wed,
aside from some very minor shifts in the location of high and low
pressure. We are still projected to have hot and gusty conditions
both days, with highs in the 90s and perhaps a few lingering triple
digits, as well as continued potential for afternoon-evening
thunderstorms across the central and eastern Panhandles. Medium
range model guidance shows low pressure maintaining slightly closer
proximity to the region these days, sending slightly better
shortwave disturbances our way for convective development (20-30%
POPs). Recent trends from the GFS as well as RRFS are becoming more
aggressive towards storm potential these two days, so we may see
these rain chances increase as we get closer. Surface winds of 15-30
mph out of the south with higher gusts will remain commonplace as
well, but also serve to maintain decent moisture content across the
region. Thursday through the upcoming weekend, global models and
ensembles suggest that troughing to our northwest will lift into the
northern Great Plains, leaving the southern High Plains with weaker
flow aloft and higher pressure. As a result, temperatures returning
to more widespread triple digits and lower storm chances are favored
for the Panhandles, although some low, mentionable rain potential
could return this weekend.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

As of this afternoon, present satellite and radar were seeing
storms struggle in our dry environment. However, there is still
potential for some activity to be present with the dry line
starting to retreat west towards much hotter conditions. This
could lead to some storm impacts over KAMA before sunset, but
confidence is still on the lower end for that outcome. Instead
focus has been more on the winds that area likely to gust to
around 20 to 30 kt clear through the overnight. This is mostly due
to another low-level jet setting up that can also lead to some
low-level wind shear for all terminals tonight. Otherwise, VFR
conditions do look to hold for all terminals clear through the
package.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ007-008-
     011>013-018-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...11