Amarillo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

808
FXUS64 KAMA 051800
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
100 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Elevated fire weather remains present this afternoon with
  critical fire looking to follow Monday in the north.

- A pattern shift starting Tuesday will see chances of showers and
  thunderstorms possible clear into next weekend.

- The potential for active weather will look to keep temperatures
  a bit more regulated with highs in the 70s to low 80s this
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A bit of a quieter day for the Panhandles as models see a upper-
level ridge slowly build throughout today. For today, temperatures
are looking to warm under the ridge and associated high pressure
with afternoon highs closer to the mid 70s. Winds on the other
hand will look to pick up just a bit across the Western Panhandles
creating some breezy conditions this afternoon and evening. These
winds alongside the still very dry conditions will unfortunately
result in some elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. For
Monday, high pressure and the upper-level ridge look to hold,
which will allow for another dry and warm day. However to the far
northwest, a weak lee-side low is expected to build off the Front
Range. This low will help shift winds back towards a more
southwesterly direction for the day and allow for some areas to
see gusts upwards of 40 mph across the Northern Panhandles.
Unfortunately these winds may be enough to create another round of
elevated to low-end critical fire weather, especially with
relative humidity values looking to be under 15 percent for the
afternoon. Currently a Red Flag Warning is in place for that
afternoon across the Northern Panhandles. Otherwise, look for
temperatures to stay on the warmer side with afternoon highs in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Beyond Monday the overall upper-level pattern looks to shift as
models see multiple troughs push across the Panhandles clear
through Friday. Each of these trough will look to provide us with
a chance at active weather with first starting Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday evening. Currently latest ensembles are beginning
to favor seeing some form of showers and thunderstorms as the
trough and its associate Pacific front move across the area, with
chances holding around 20 to 40 percent. However, chances of any
beneficial rainfall seem to be much lower with present models not
seeing a lot of moisture present behind the front. As it stands,
indication from the ensembles are only seeing a 10 to 15 percent
chance of seeing amount greater than a quarter of an inch.
Instead, better chances may have to wait for the next system
moving in sometime Thursday into Friday. At this time present
ensemble are giving much better chances for actual beneficial
rainfall with this secondary system. Currently chances of greater
than a quarter of an inch are closer to 30 to 40 percent. From
there models do see a potential for this active weather to
continue into next weekend. However, these still plenty of
uncertainty that may see these chances fall or increase over the
coming days. Regardless, look for temperatures to stay warm, but a
bit more regulated with afternoon highs mostly in the 70s to low
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Dry conditions continue to hold under the building high pressure
system with terminals expected to stay VFR through the Package.
Surface winds may increase over the afternoon and early evening,
but should stay below 25kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A weak lee-side low set up is expected to be present this Monday
afternoon, which will allow for gusty southwesterly winds to be
present across the area. Currently, expectations have the
strongest winds focused in the Northwestern Panhandles where
speeds could reach 20 to 25 mph and gusts upwards of 40 mph.
Meanwhile, high pressure over the Panhandles will make for another
dry day with relative humidity values across the Western
Panhandles holding below 15 percent with the rest of the area
staying around 20 percent. One wrench in these conditions will be
the lee-side low itself as it looks to move off the the Front
Range during the afternoon time frame. This will result in winds
weakening sooner and decreasing concern more towards elevated than
critical.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ001>007.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11