Amarillo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
|
NWS Forecast for Amarillo TX
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Amarillo TX
Issued by: National Weather Service Amarillo, TX |
Updated: 12:46 am CDT Sep 21, 2024 |
|
Overnight
Slight Chance Showers
|
Saturday
Mostly Cloudy then Showers
|
Saturday Night
T-storms
|
Sunday
Chance Showers
|
Sunday Night
Slight Chance T-storms then Mostly Clear
|
Monday
Sunny
|
Monday Night
Mostly Clear then Chance Showers
|
Tuesday
Chance Showers then Chance T-storms
|
Tuesday Night
Chance T-storms
|
Lo 68 °F |
Hi 87 °F |
Lo 60 °F |
Hi 68 °F |
Lo 47 °F |
Hi 76 °F |
Lo 55 °F |
Hi 74 °F |
Lo 54 °F |
|
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Overnight
|
A 20 percent chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Saturday
|
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 1pm. High near 87. South southwest wind around 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. |
Saturday Night
|
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 60. North wind around 10 mph becoming east in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. |
Sunday
|
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers between 1pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. North wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Sunday Night
|
A slight chance of thunderstorms before 7pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 47. North wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%. |
Monday
|
Sunny, with a high near 76. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon. |
Monday Night
|
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly clear, with a low around 55. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Tuesday
|
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. South wind around 10 mph becoming east in the afternoon. |
Tuesday Night
|
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. East wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Wednesday
|
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Wednesday Night
|
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. |
Thursday
|
Sunny, with a high near 83. |
Thursday Night
|
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. |
Friday
|
Sunny, with a high near 83. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Amarillo TX.
|
Weather Forecast Discussion
034
FXUS64 KAMA 210531
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1231 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to roll in across the
western Panhandles early this morning. This activity continues to
not be handled well by the latest hi-res models. The showers
should gradually decrease in coverage through the morning hours as
the better upper level lift moves off to the northeast. Have added
PoPs through the early morning hours across the west and central
to account for the light showers.
Muscha
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
- Thunderstorms will be possible today through Sunday with some
of the storms having the potential to be severe, with damaging
winds and large hail being the primary concern, with localized
flooding becoming possible on Saturday.
- Cooler temperatures are likely to be present Sunday with the
arrival of the cold front.
- Additional thunderstorm chances are forecast early to mid next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
As of the early this afternoon, radar and satellite were already
seeing showers and thunderstorms move in with the lead wave of the
incoming upper-level system. Latest expectations for the CAMs
continues to see these showers focus mostly in the western and
northern portions of the Panhandles with potential to be present
clear into the overnight hours. In terms of impacts, CAMs have
been very confident very in little MLCAPE being present with some
of the higher outcomes still having values under 1000J/kg. The
bigger concern for the severe potential today will be more focused
on the winds as all the CAMs are suggesting DCAPE values above
1500 J/kg, which would be more then enough to create a 60 to 70
mph gust off a weak collapsing thunderstorm. Secondary to the
winds, will be the flooding potential for today as all models see
PWAT values rise above an inch today and continue to rise with the
approach of the main system. Added to this is will a very good
potential to see storms train over areas with flow staying
consistent for the day and CAMs suggesting that environment will
be favorable to recycle and redevelop storms. While this setup may
not result in quick flash flooding, it could be a case of small
amounts adding up over time, especially if storms continue into
the overnight.
Of course this overnight activity will be key to the impacts
expected for Saturday when the system arrives in full to the
Panhandles. As it stands, CAMs are in agreement that much better
MLCAPE will be present across the southwestern portions of the
Panhandles, with very good wind shear present in the area as well.
What is especially concerning, is that many of these model are
suggesting that a chunk of this strong shear is present in the
lower-level which indicate better chances for a tornadic event to
be present alongside strong severe thunderstorms. However should
activity be present through the overnight, then the above mention
conditions will struggle to come to fruition under already present
cloud cover. Alongside this caveat, will be the final placement
of the boundary accompanying the system. At this time, CAMs
suggest that it holds north enough to keep the better ingredients
present to areas south of the I-40 corridor. However, it is
entirely possible that the boundary moves further south than
expected and shifts those ingredients south alongside it. Rather,
the better chances for impacts may be on the flooding side of the
equation. Currently, model agrees that PWAT values will rise even
further Saturday, which will bring a majority of the Panhandles to
values around 1.25 to 1.5 inches. Added to this will be very
similar motion and training that is expected today with potential
for storms to last clear into Sunday. Given this and the potential
rain from the overnight tonight, it is not out of the question
for locations around to Panhandles to average precipitation
accumulations of an inch by the time we hit Sunday. Add to this
the potential for areas to localized heavier amounts due to
thunderstorms, and localize flooding has the better chances to
occur over the course of the day. Regardless, expect cooler
weather to follow this activity with the northwestern Panhandles
looking to drop into the mid 70s for high temperatures Saturday.
Meanwhile in the southeast where conditions and activity are not
as favored, temperatures could still rise into the 90s for the
day.
Scoleri
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
The mid-level trough responsible for the rain chances on Saturday is
expected to eject and become imposed within northeastern Colorado by
early Sunday morning. Concurrently, this trough`s jet streak is
progged to slide northeastward, fostering the development of a sfc
high and robust CAA into the CWA. Strong northerly flow in
conjunction with modest sfc cyclogenesis in the Permian Basin is
expected to yield robust convergence along the cold front. This
Strong convergence coupled with ample BL moisture will encourage
appreciable chances for scattered convection throughout the day on
Sunday. However, the 12z suite of deterministic models exhibit much
disparity in the degree of forward advancement of the cold front,
owed to previous days coldpool magnitude and subtleties in sfc
high strength. If the cold front advances too quickly, then the
warm- sector and thus rain chances will be confined south of the
CWA. Conversely, some deterministic members slow the progression
of the cold front, yielding decent QPF returns in the Southeastern
CWA. Moreover, flooding may also become a concern in the latter
scenario due to boundary parallel shear and tendency of training
storms. POPs ranging from the 40`s to even upper 60`s have
therefore been continued for the Eastern half of CWA, Sunday.
A brief lull of rain chances will exist on Monday, with the
exception of modest POPs across the far northwestern CWA.
Appreciable rain chances return on Tuesday afternoon as a positively-
tilted trough is progged to encroach on the Southern Plains.
Regarding rain prospects on Tuesday, Much uncertainty exists in
the degree of return flow and BL moisture. Therefore, POPs on
Tuesday have been maintained in the 30`s to lower 50`s, with some
likely adjustment with further confidence. Following Tuesday,
rain chances depress considerably as the trough departs the CWA.
Below average temperatures ranging from the upper 50`s to the upper
70`s are likely on Sunday in the wake of the cold front.
Although, some uncertainty exists in the forecasted highs
considering cloud cover and possible convection. Additionally,
Low`s in the lower 40`s are plausible early Monday morning in the
far northern FA, especially if there is little to no cloud cover.
Following Sunday High temperatures are expected to rebound to
seasonal levels in the 70`s and 80`s through Wednesday.
LNJ/SAS
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024
VFR conditions are forecast to start this TAF cycle. MVFR to IFR
ceilings and visibility will be possible at all sites due to
showers and thunderstorms starting around or after 18z through the
end of this TAF issuance. Winds will initially be out of the
southwest but will become northerly behind a front. Sporadic winds
with higher gusts will be possible at the sites when thunderstorms
move over the terminals. MVFR to IFR ceilings are very likely at
the sites after 00z along with continued showers and potentially
thunderstorms.
Muscha
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 88 59 68 46 / 70 90 40 10
Beaver OK 87 55 66 43 / 70 90 50 10
Boise City OK 75 49 59 40 / 80 90 20 0
Borger TX 92 59 71 45 / 80 90 40 10
Boys Ranch TX 84 57 68 44 / 80 90 30 10
Canyon TX 88 59 69 44 / 70 90 40 10
Clarendon TX 91 62 73 47 / 50 80 60 30
Dalhart TX 75 51 63 41 / 80 90 20 0
Guymon OK 81 51 63 40 / 80 90 40 0
Hereford TX 87 59 69 45 / 80 90 30 10
Lipscomb TX 93 60 70 45 / 60 90 60 20
Pampa TX 89 59 69 45 / 70 90 50 20
Shamrock TX 94 64 74 48 / 40 70 70 40
Wellington TX 96 67 79 50 / 30 60 70 40
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...05
View a Different U.S. Forecast Discussion Location
(In alphabetical order by state)
|
|
|
|