Smyrna, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

341
FXUS64 KOHX 231800
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1200 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1117 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

 - A warming trend is in store this week as high temperatures warm
   to the 50s and 60s.

 - Light rain returns to the area Christmas Day, mainly in the
   western half, and another round of rain Friday through the
   weekend. Severe weather is not expected.

 - Additional rounds of rain will move in next week, with above
   normal precipitation in the forecast through the end of the
   month.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Warmer temps begin moving in today as southerly flow returns to
the mid state. Highs in the 50s will be common through the week as
well as some rounds of rain in the forecast. But expecting dry
conditions today and tomorrow as we get weak upper ridging
overhead before the southern Plains trough continues eastward for
Wednesday. Low temps tonight will be Arden and below freezing for
the Plateau and points south, but cloud cover in the north and
west should keep temps above freezing in those areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

As the upper trough strengthens a bit as it moves east, additional
moisture will move northward, and models now keep most of the
moisture off to our west. Still held on to some precip for the
western half Christmas Day, but those amounts now are just a few
hundredths for most and a tenth or so for the far NW. Getting
later in the day on Christmas, the upper trough weakens
considerably as it moves northeast, giving us brief shortwave
ridging later in the day. Light rain will be possible on Thursday,
but much better chances for rain move in for Friday and the
weekend when a much stronger trough moves east. Multiple lobes of
the upper trough will swing through the southern Plains into the
Midwest, giving us waves of rain chances (40-70%) Friday through
Sunday. Highest rainfall totals right now look to be Saturday
night into Sunday, and when its all said and done, 1 to 2 inches
of rain is in the forecast Friday through early next week.
Currently, there`s not too much instability with these waves of
rain next weekend, so severe chances are low attm. Clusters
support the lack of any strong to severe currently, but the ECMWF
ensembles do have a slightly stronger trough

Next week, above average rainfall is expected as an active weather
pattern continues. Models have little agreement other than that!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1001 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

VFR conditions will continue through this taf period. Skies will
be mainly clear today with increasing south winds on the back side
of a high pressure center. Increasing mid and high level moisture
will bring cigs around 8kft tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      53  37  55  39 /   0  10  10  10
Clarksville    53  39  54  40 /   0  20  10  30
Crossville     46  29  51  32 /   0  10  10   0
Columbia       52  34  56  37 /   0  10  10  10
Cookeville     50  32  51  36 /   0  10  10   0
Jamestown      48  31  50  34 /   0  10  10   0
Lawrenceburg   51  32  55  37 /   0  10  10  20
Murfreesboro   53  33  55  35 /   0  10  10  10
Waverly        52  35  56  39 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....13