Smyrna, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

098
FXUS64 KOHX 181136
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
636 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

- Low chance of strong to severe storms tonight. Gusty winds and
  heavy rainfall will be the main concerns, but there is a very
  low tornado concern, as well.

- Please be prepared for nocturnal storms. Have your cell phone
  charged prior to go to bed just in case you go under warning.

- Summer-like heat and drier weather makes an appearance across
  Middle Tennessee for next weekend. Heat indices climb to 100
  degrees Saturday through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Unsettled weather is going to continue into middle part of the
week. We will remain in a long wave trough over the central part
of the country. A short wave will be lifting over Middle TN
tonight and that may bring a few showers or isolated
thunderstorms for the overnight but overall we will be dry. An MCS
has developed over the southern Plains and will push east
overnight. This MCS will weaken as it pushes through MO/AR but it
will likely bring outflows or an MCV to Middle TN by tomorrow
afternoon. This will be enough to kick off scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the afternoon. We will see tons of CAPE pushing
to above 2000+ j/kg. Bulk shear will remain on the low side, less
than 20 knots. We will see some improvement in the mid-level lapse
rates but overall the severe threat will be on the low side for
the afternoon and early evening.

An upper level trough tracking into the Great Lakes will push a
frontal boundary south into the region later in the day. This will
bring us a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. We will
also see our bulk shear increase during the evening to 20-30
knots. This will give us a slightly better chance for a few more
organized cells. We will likely see a broken line of
thunderstorms along the frontal boundary move into the northwest
part of the area after 9 PM but it may move in later, there is
still quite a bit of uncertainty with exact timing. They will
continue to push east during the overnight. The best severe
chances would be in northwestern part of the area where CAPE,
shear, and forcing will be a bit better. Gusty winds and hail are
going to be the main concern. We do see good low level shear but
there is a lack of turning with height and we should have a CAP in
place, this will keep the tornado threat on the low side. PWATs
will remain high throughout the day and night in the 1.60-1.80"
range. Storm motion will be high enough to limit the flash
flooding threat but we could see some localized training along the
front.

The upper level trough will dig out of the Great Lakes and move
over Middle TN on Thursday. This will bring anther day of
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Bulk shear Thursday will be
20-30 knots with ok lapse rates. Can`t rule out a few stronger
storms with wind and hail being the main threats. Highs will be in
the mid 80s to around 90 Wednesday, a touch cooler Thursday with
low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Quieter weather finally settles in on Friday but the heat will be
on as a strong upper level ridge builds over the region. Highs
will warm into the low to mid 90s over the weekend. The humidity
will be sticking around and this will push max heat index values
to around 100 Saturday and above the century mark Sunday. We will
remain under the strong upper level ridge into the start of next
week with highs staying in the low to mid 90s and afternoon heat
index values above 100. This will be an extended period of heat
and we will see major heat risk starting Sunday and continue into
at least the first half of next week. This level of heat risk
affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration. By the middle of the week the upper level ridge may be
just far enough east that we could see some popup afternoon
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

IFR has arrived at all mid-state terminals, but should be short-
lived as MVFR should return by 13-14Z and VFR by 15-16Z. Two lines
of TS expected tonight. Have tempo`d at each terminal with
reductions in vis for each. Southwest winds will be light for
another couple of hours, but gusts of 18-20 kts are expected at
each terminal starting around 15Z and lasting through TS arrival.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  72  87  70 /  30  70  70   0
Clarksville    88  72  85  68 /  60  80  30   0
Crossville     83  66  79  63 /  50  60  90  10
Columbia       89  70  85  67 /  30  70  70  10
Cookeville     84  68  80  66 /  40  70  90  10
Jamestown      84  67  79  63 /  50  60  90  10
Lawrenceburg   88  70  85  66 /  30  60  80  10
Murfreesboro   90  70  87  67 /  30  60  80  10
Waverly        88  68  85  66 /  50  70  40   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Unger