Smyrna, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

455
FXUS64 KOHX 181143
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
543 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

- High rain chances Thursday and Thursday evening. Chances for
  thunderstorms are very low.

- Warm and breezy conditions Thursday through Thursday evening
  with gusts of 25 to 35 mph at times.

- Above-normal temperatures are favored through the Christmas
  holiday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1008 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

As a shortwave exits to the east, a stronger upper-level low is
taking shape over the northern Plains. This system will continue to
make its way east through Thursday and will be responsible for high
rain chances across Middle TN. As this system and its cold front
approaches, southerly winds will continue to stream moisture into
the area, resulting in PWATs increasing to around one inch (near the
90th percentile for mid-December). This moisture advection ahead of
the cold front will allow for rain showers to develop by late
morning, become more widespread during the afternoon as the front
approaches, and then taper off late evening behind the front.
Despite an impressive jet with 500mb winds near 80 knots and 50-60
knots at 850mb, severe weather is not anticipated. This is still due
to very limited instability with forecast soundings showing SBCAPE
less than 100 J/kg. It`ll still be windy though with a tight surface
pressure gradient setting up ahead of the front. Southerly winds are
expected to gust 25-35 mph through the afternoon and evening. Gusts
near 40 mph aren`t out of the question, but that probability is low
at 20-30% so don`t anticipate a Wind Advisory being issued at this
time.

Behind the front, temperatures will be cooler on Friday with
forecast highs in the 40s - about 15 degrees cooler compared to
Thursday. Overall, it`ll be a nice day though with dry and sunny
conditions thanks to weak surface high pressure building in.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1008 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Temperatures will quickly rebound as we start the weekend with highs
on Saturday returning to the mid and upper-50s. This warming trend
continues into next week, resulting in temperatures in the 60s as we
approach Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. The good news is that
nothing look hazardous as we go into the holiday week. Models are
depicting a couple shortwaves that are enough to keep low rain
chances in the extended forecast - mainly Sunday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Cigs will be lowering this morning and will become MVFR between
15 and 17z. Showers will overspread the area during the morning
and continue through the afternoon. A front will bring a heavier
line of rain from west to east between 22 and 04z. Low vis and IFR
cigs will be possible with and just behind this line. Cigs in the
west will start to come up after 02z and should return to VFR but
they will remain in MVFR for eastern terminals through the
overnight. Gusty southerly winds will develop this morning and we
will see gusts up to 27 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      62  31  45  31 /  90  90   0   0
Clarksville    61  28  42  29 /  90  60   0   0
Crossville     56  27  40  26 /  90  90   0   0
Columbia       61  31  46  31 /  90  80   0   0
Cookeville     58  28  40  28 /  90 100   0   0
Jamestown      56  26  39  27 /  90 100   0   0
Lawrenceburg   60  31  46  31 /  90  80   0   0
Murfreesboro   61  31  45  30 /  90  90   0   0
Waverly        59  28  42  31 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Mueller