Smyrna, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

602
FXUS64 KOHX 021125
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
625 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Major flooding may develop for northwest Middle Tennessee with
  heavy rainfall at times Wednesday evening through Sunday
  morning. Stewart, Montgomery, and Houston Counties are at
  greatest risk with 6 to 10 inches of rainfall expected. Flash
  flooding and eventually river flooding will be concerns across
  the northwest half of Middle Tennessee.

- There will be a risk for severe storms across the area at times
  Wednesday evening through Saturday. The main risk area will be
  over the northwest half of Middle Tennessee. The risk is very
  "conditional" as thunderstorms may stay focused along the
  frontal zone northwest of our area. If storms do spread farther
  southeast into the Mid State, they may contain damaging winds
  and torrential downpours. Although less of a risk, large hail
  and tornadoes cannot be ruled out. It will be important to
  monitor forecast updates frequently for the latest information.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 750 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Tonight is going to be the last quiet night of weather we can
expect for quite some time. A surface ridge has already slipped
across Middle Tennessee, with winds now turning southeastward.
Expect winds to increase considerably from the south tomorrow as
the pressure gradient tightens up ahead of an approaching cold
front. Winds tomorrow will increase to the point that a Wind
Advisory has been issued for expected gusts of 35-45 mph. In
addition, 850 mb winds look to increase to 60-65 kts by tomorrow
afternoon, setting up a highly efficient moisture transport that
will help increase our Precipitable Water values well above the
90th percentile climatologically. The 18Z HRRR brings a line of
storms into the northwest corner of Middle Tennessee around 02Z
tomorrow evening, and up to Nashville by around 06Z, and then the
activity won`t go much farther. Also, storms look to weaken some
as they progress eastward through Middle Tennessee, so the severe
potential for areas to the east and south of Nashville are
probably minimal for tomorrow and tomorrow night. In fact, many
locations won`t see any showers at all until Thursday or later. As
storms weaken tomorrow evening and overnight, we will transition
from a severe threat to more of a flooding threat. Indeed, this
opening round of active weather may produce some robust rainfall
totals right off the bat, with echo training likely to occur
across areas to the northwest of Nashville. By 12Z Thursday, the
aforementioned cold front will become quasi-stationary just
northwest of Middle Tennessee. Obviously, rainfall amounts will
be greatest closer to the boundary, then taper off considerably.
This means there will be quite the rainfall gradient across Middle
Tennessee throughout this event. Meanwhile, the severe potential
will continue on Thursday and Thursday night, although to a lesser
extent than on Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 750 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

The quasi-stationary boundary won`t go away anytime soon. It
appears to be held at bay buy a strong Bermuda High and persistent
ridging over the southeast U.S. So the SPC keeps a severe
potential in place across Middle Tennessee for Friday and
Saturday, as well. With little air mass change in coming days, we
can expect daytime temperatures well above seasonal normals with
dew points staying put in the 60s until the front comes through
this weekend. With the front stalled to our northwest, several
impulses will ride up the wave, thereby creating several rounds of
active weather between tomorrow night and Saturday night. It is
difficult at this point to address any timing questions beyond
tomorrow night and early Thursday. It is also difficult to
ascertain just how deeply the severe storms and flooding will
extend into Middle Tennessee. It`s safe to say that areas to the
north and west of Nashville can expect a high potential for both
river and areal flooding. Storm total QPF values range from 6-10"
across this region. At this time, river models are only beginning
to pick up on the initial QPF. Once we get deeper into the event,
we can expect significant rises on rivers and streams. Also, there
is the uncertainty of boundary placing itself. If the quasi-
stationary boundary were to set up farther east than what is
currently projected, more areas in Middle Tennessee would be
adversely impact. And if the boundary sets up farther west, then
the reverse would be true. Either way, we may very well wind up
with a scenario where locations north and west of Nashville
experience significant flooding and severe storms, and areas along
the Cumberland Plateau experience very little active weather
until the weekend. Finally, the surface high pressure will begin
to relent by Saturday, allowing for the quasi-stationary boundary
to finally pick up some steam and push through Middle Tennessee
Saturday night and Sunday, thereby bringing this multi-day weather
event to a close. Temperatures on the back side of the front will
be considerably cooler. In fact, several mid state locations may
be in for some frosty weather Tuesday morning and again Wednesday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

MVFR cigs are expected to develop at the taf sites this morning
before cigs improve to VFR this afternoon. There is a low chance
of a scattered storm impacting CKV this afternoon and this was
addressed with a prob30 group. The higher storm chances will be
after 03/03z at CKV and after 03/06z at BNA/MQY. CSV/SRB are
expected to remain dry for the forecast period. Winds will be
gusty through the taf period with southerly winds increasing to
20-25 kts late this morning with gusts up to 35 kts through the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  69  81  68 /  30  70  70  50
Clarksville    84  64  73  64 /  50  90 100  80
Crossville     77  64  82  64 /  10  20  20  30
Columbia       84  67  83  68 /  20  50  70  40
Cookeville     80  67  82  66 /  20  40  60  40
Jamestown      79  64  82  63 /  10  40  60  40
Lawrenceburg   83  69  84  70 /  20  40  50  30
Murfreesboro   85  67  84  68 /  20  50  70  40
Waverly        83  63  74  64 /  50  80  90  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Thursday for
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
TNZ005>011-023>031-056>060-062-093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Reagan