Memphis, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

048
FXUS64 KMEG 221104
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
504 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected for Christmas Eve
  and Christmas Day. Highs will range from the low to mid 70s.

- A 20 to 60 percent chance for light showers will return Monday
  through Tuesday evening as a warm front lifts north.

- Mild conditions will persist through Friday, but the timing and
  impacts of a cold front next weekend remain unclear.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

The latest surface analysis places a cold front along the Gulf
Coast this evening with an expansive 1036mb high over the eastern
CONUS. The latest GOES Nighttime Microphysics RGB reveals low and
mid level stratus creeping well north of the boundary, aided by
weak warm advection at 850 mb. Aloft, weak northwest flow remains
prevalent across the entire Mississippi Valley.

The cold front will begin to lift north as a warm front on
Monday. Significant low level moisture advection will create low
stratus and drizzle along with scattered showers by mid
afternoon. Temperatures behind the boundary will rise into the
low to mid 60s. The front will lift north of the region by late
Monday night with continued light showers and drizzle through
Tuesday as a couple of weak shortwaves ripple through northwest
flow aloft.

The big story for the holiday week is not snow, but unseasonably
warm air blanketing the region. A 588 dam upper level ridge will
build into the Mid-South Tuesday through Friday with temperatures
soaring into the low to mid 70s, or about 20 to 25 degrees above
normal for this time of year. Christmas day will feel more like
late September rather than late December.

Model guidance (LREF) is in high agreement with a cold front
moving into the region this weekend. A large trough will deepen
as it moves across the Plains and helps push an Arctic front down
into the Ohio Valley. However, the degree as to how dry and cold
the airmass will be remains a point of divergence in the
ensembles. Nonetheless, the forecast will favor the return of
rainfall and a cooling trend back toward seasonal norms (highs in
the 50s) by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Stratus has lifted north of the MEM terminal and is currently
impacting JBR. VFR conditions should not last long at the other
3 terminals as south winds bring abundant moisture to the area
and a strengthening 30kt LLJ enhances lift across the region.
MVFR cigs are expected between 14 and 17z. Cigs will continue to
lower this afternoon and overnight becoming IFR or even LIFR
tonight. There may be a few very light rain showers around during
the day, but coverage is not expected to be high enough for even
a PROB30. Confidence is moderately high (30-40%) that drizzle will
develop this afternoon and will continue through the end of the
TAF cycle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

A 20% to 60% chance of wetting rain will return Monday into
Tuesday as a warm front lifts north. Fire danger will remain very
low all next week as humidity will remain elevated in the 50% to
80% range. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected each day as
a strong upper level high pressure system remains over the
region.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JDS