Memphis, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

804
FXUS64 KMEG 121938
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
238 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this
  afternoon through late evening. There is a low chance (1/5) of a
  few severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the
  majority of the Mid-South. Damaging winds and flash flooding are
  the primary threats, but a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled
  out through this evening.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday through
  this weekend. At this time, the chances for severe thunderstorms
  appears limited.

- Hot and humid conditions will develop next week, with isolated
  to scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms continuing. Heat
  indices will exceed 100 degrees by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Humidity has increased significantly across the Mid-South this
afternoon, in the wake of a marine frontal passage. Dewpoints
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region, with
temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 80s. A few diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms have popped up over the past
hour, but have quickly dissipated due to the lack of upper level
support. Aloft, a large upper low continues to churn near the
ArkLaTex. This trough will eject a leading shortwave into the
Lower Mississippi Valley through this evening.

The current thermodynamic environment features a NW to SE gradient
of 500 J/kg to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and steep low level lapse
rates around 8.5 C/km. The favorable shear remains along and west
of the Mississippi River, where up to 25 knots is currently
available. However, this area still features -100 J/kg of CIN and
low instability, keeping CI at bay. As we progress into the late
afternoon/early evening hours, an area of convection near the
ArkLaMiss will translate northeastward along the Delta and quickly
advect in richer and deeper moisture.

With ample instability and moderate shear in place by late
afternoon, a Marginal Risk (1/5) of strong to severe
thunderstorms is in place. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are
the main threats, however, a brief spin-up tornado cannot be ruled
out as the low level jet ramps up to around 30 knots this
evening. The majority of convective activity will lift north of
the Mid- South just after midnight.

Friday will see additional showers and thunderstorms throughout
the day as the main trough slowly lifts northeast across the
region. Instability will be more limited tomorrow afternoon, due
to ongoing showers and thunderstorms and subsequent cloud cover.
As PWATs remain elevated to near the 99th percentile, the threat
of heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will be in place.
Additionally, with weak shear aloft, typical summertime microbursts
will be more favorable with afternoon convective activity.

Unsettled weather will persist into the weekend, as the stubborn
upper trough slowly lifts out of the Tennessee Valley. Weak upper
level northwest flow will build into the region in wake of the
exiting trough. This will allow a few ridge-rider waves to
translate SE through the Mid-South through early next week. Still
too early to sort out storm mode, but an MCS or two could
materialize in this pattern.

Heat will increase across the region as we move into early next
week. However, it looks to be short-lived as the ridge never
fully establishes itself across the South. Another trough,
embedded in the westerlies, will eject into the Lower Mississippi
Valley by the middle of next week. This will bring more unsettled
weather and potentially more organized convection to the region.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Tough TAFs this issuance. Main concern is TSRA with the movement
of a frontal boundary this evening. As we remain in this
summertime pattern, CAMs continue to struggle with exact timing of
said convection. TEMPOs and PROB30s were drawn in to best fit
thunderstorm activity. Ceilings will also drop from current VFR to
MVFR and pockets of IFR as convection moves through this evening
and early afternoon tomorrow. South/southwest winds will be at
around 6-10 kts, with a few gusts up to 20 kts tomorrow afternoon.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

High humidity and wetting rain chances will continue through the
weekend.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH