Collierville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

896
FXUS64 KMEG 081919
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
219 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 219 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

- Thunderstorms will move through the Mid-South overnight and
  through the day tomorrow. A few storms could become severe,
  with damaging wind gusts and large hail as the main concerns.

- Dry and seasonable temperatures return Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Thunderstorm chances will begin to increase by the end of the
  work week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

A surface boundary currently sits just south of the Mid-South,
keeping conditions dry across the area with a few clouds across
north/central Mississippi. Do expect the remainder of the day to
remain dry for the most part, with temperatures expected to climb
into the mid 80s this afternoon. Elsewhere, an upper-level trough
will build through the upper Midwest into Monday, with a
corresponding frontal boundary sagging towards our area overnight
and pushing through the Mid-South during the daytime tomorrow.
This frontal boundary in addition with a decaying MCS from the
west could lead to some strong to severe thunderstorms developing
beginning as early as 4 AM and continuing into the afternoon
hours. Greatest confidence appears to be generally along and south
of the I-40 corridor, where instability will be greatest. If the
northern extent were to be achieved, this would likely be along
the TN River. CAPE is questionable on the northern end, but shear
does appear to be a bit better. In addition, besides the frontal
boundary there is some question with the mid and upper- level
support for this system. Most CAMs have the 700mb jet bisecting
the Mid-South, with questionable mid-level lapse rates, and
lackluster shear where CAPE values are highest through the event.
Given the presence of the frontal boundary with 2,000+ J/kg CAPE
by 4 AM through at least the afternoon, some thunderstorms could
likely become strong to severe. Think damaging winds and large
hail would be the main concern with any of these storms.

By Tuesday, a weak surface high pressure will develop across to
just north of the region, allowing for dry conditions and
seasonable temperatures through midweek. High temperatures will
likely be in the mid 80s on Tuesday, with mid to upper 80s on
Wednesday. On Thursday, a cut-off upper-level low will exit the
the plains and drift eastward, allowing shower and thunderstorm
chances to increase into the end of the work week. This overall
pattern will likely continue into the weekend, with scattered
chances (40-60%+) for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
There is still spread in ensemble guidance on the timing of this
cutoff low progression, so thunderstorm chances on Thursday are
still somewhat uncertain. Confidence does begin to increase into
the weekend for the Mid-South to be in an overall wet weather
pattern. High temperatures will likely remain just above normal to
end the week, in the upper 80s across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

The rest of the day through the overnight period looks completely
dry. There will be a frontal passage tomorrow morning with a
relatively messy convective mode ahead of the front. For now,
opted to keep the PROB30s at all sites except JBR given the lack
of agreement in the CAMs. Will say that there looks to be an
initial wave shortly after 12Z Monday and then maybe a final push
of convection around 18Z with the FROPA, which is the reasoning
behind such a long period of prevailing precip and VCTS. Ceilings
don`t look particularly low save for brief downpours, so expect
mostly VFR for all sites. Winds will gradually shift around to the
west and eventually north throughout the day tomorrow.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CAD