Clarksville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

070
FXUS64 KOHX 130432
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1032 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Not much going on weather-wise this evening and into tonight with
high pressure dominating the area, leading to mostly clear skies
and dry conditions. Our weather pattern changes tomorrow though
thanks to a low pressure system currently located over CO and a
cold front currently moving into OK and TX. This low tracks
towards the Great Lakes area tomorrow, and as it does so, our
surface winds will become southerly. With moisture advection and
the approaching low and cold front, our rain chances will increase
late Wednesday morning and into the early afternoon. The good
news is that severe weather is still not anticipated. While heavy
rain will be possible at times, our 00Z sounding this evening
shows a very dry atmosphere with a PWAT of only 0.40 inches. It`ll
take time for this profile to become more saturated so it likely
won`t be until Wednesday evening or overnight that gives the best
chance for heavier rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Thanks to sprawling surface high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes and a sharp ridge axis overhead, we are enjoying a very
fine day by November standards, or any standards for that matter.
The afternoon will be sunny with temps in the 60s. Tonight will be
clear to partly cloudy. It will be cool with lows in the 40s, but
still a few degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.

The wx switch will flip and things will get pretty messy by late
Wednesday. A deep trough from the Four Corners will plow eastward,
spinning up a low pressure system and cold front. The low will
move toward the Great Lakes while the trailing cold front moves
across the Tn Valley Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Locally, southeast winds will increase after daybreak Wednesday
and showers will begin to form in our western counties by
lunchtime. The rain will then spread eastward across all of
Middle Tn by Wednesday night.

Although some rumbles of thunder may be heard, we are not looking
for any severe storms. The main impact from vigorous lift ahead of
the front will be enhanced rainfall. Overall, rainfall totals of
1 to 2 inches are expected. Model ensembles are pretty tight on
these values, but a few models show some heavier pockets of 3 or 4
inches possible along and west of I-65. If these heavier localized
values do happen, it could result in some brief ponding of water
on streets and in low spots, especially late Wednesday evening.
The system will be moving pretty quickly, so we do not anticipate
widespread problems with flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Rain will move out by daybreak Thursday for areas west of I-65.
Rain will end for most eastern areas by midday. Only slight
cooling will follow the front with near normal temps to end the
workweek.

Dry high pressure will take over the weekend with very nice wx
again. Temps will climb a few degrees above normal for the
weekend.

Looking into next week, the next chance for showers comes early
next week with perhaps some significant rain chances late next
week. Those details are very uncertain, but what does look pretty
certain is the warmer than normal pattern with no freezing temps
in sight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Showers will begin to impact CKV/MQY/BNA around midday Wednesday
and starting in the late afternoon/early evening at SRB/CSV. Cigs
will gradually deteriorate to MVFR at CKV/MQY/BNA and even IFR at
CKV. Cigs should stay VFR at CSV/SRB through the taf period. Vis
could temporarily reduce to MVFR/IFR during the evening at
CKV/MQY/BNA during heavier showers. Winds will increase to 5-10
kts during the morning out of the SE/SSE with some gusts up to
around 20 kts through the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      47  66  54  62 /   0  90  90  20
Clarksville    44  63  53  61 /   0 100 100  10
Crossville     41  63  44  58 /   0  50 100  70
Columbia       45  63  52  62 /   0  80 100  10
Cookeville     45  66  48  60 /   0  70 100  70
Jamestown      41  65  45  60 /   0  50 100  80
Lawrenceburg   45  63  52  63 /   0  80 100  10
Murfreesboro   45  66  51  63 /   0  80 100  30
Waverly        46  63  51  61 /   0  90 100   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Clements
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Reagan