Bartlett, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

497
FXUS64 KMEG 130514
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1114 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

A quiet night across the Mid-South at this hour. Our next front is
out over the Southern Plains at this hour. The latest GOES
Nighttime Microphysics RGB channel shows a well defined baroclinic
leaf over Oklahoma and Texas. Simultaneously, the remnants of
Rafael is surging north into Louisiana and Mississippi at this
hour. Both systems will affect the area on Wednesday.

Rafael`s remnants will arrive early tomorrow morning and bring
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms to the region.
Strong storms are not anticipated, as only a small and short-lived
warm sector will exist tomorrow afternoon near our southwestern
counties.

The aforementioned cold front will move into the region by late
afternoon and move slowly through the Mid-South through Thursday
morning. QPF totals will range from 0.5 to 1.5 inches through this
period.

Went ahead and increased minimum temperatures by a couple of
degrees, due to some weak warm air advection ahead of the remnants
of Rafael. The rest of the forecast is in good shape.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will lift north along the Mississippi
River late tonight and develop eastward through the remainder of
the Midsouth on Wednesday. Rain should lift out of West Tennessee
and northeast Mississippi by late Wednesday evening. Fair and
seasonal weather will follow for Thursday, and persist through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Midday GOES water vapor imagery showed progressive upper level
longwave trough over the central Rockies. This feature will lift
to the Great Plains by Wednesday morning, with diffluent
downstream flow overspreading the lower MS River Valley. A 925mb
warm front will lift into north MS prior to 12Z Wednesday, serving
as focus for showers and thunderstorms. 12Z HRRR progs MUCAPE as
high as 500 J/kg, rooted around 925mb. 40-50kt 925mb winds will
provide moisture influx during the day, with PWAT reaching as high
as 1.8 inches east of the MS River Wednesday afternoon. By
Wednesday evening, rain should lift east of the Midsouth, as the
slightly negative-tilted midlevel trough axis rotates through.

The upper level pattern will remain progressive through the
weekend. The Midsouth will experience fair and seasonal weather
under ridging aloft. The ridge axis will lift east of the Midsouth
on Monday, as a negative-tilt upper low ejects from the southern
plains into the upper Midwest. A stronger southern branch trough
will soon follow, digging into the southern plains by next Tuesday.
This system may phase with a northern branch low, resulting in a
large cut-off upper low centered over the mid-MS River Valley by
the middle of next week. Much time remains for such complex
pattern to develop, and the global models have yet to settle on a
consensus. But there at least appears to be a better than even
chance of cooler than normal temperatures for the Thanksgiving
holiday.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the overnight hours. Rain
will start to move into the Mid-South on Wednesday morning as
moisture from the remnants of Rafael move northward. Showers and a
few thunderstorms are expected across the entire region through
Wednesday night as a cold front moves through. Winds will be
mainly from the northeast around 5 knots overnight before shifting
to the southeast on Wednesday and increasing to 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ARS