Yankton, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

392
FXUS63 KFSD 102012
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
212 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to just above normal temperatures will continue into the
  new week with daily highs expected to stay in the 40s and 50s.

- Confidence continues to increase in measurable rain chances
  (40%-60%) from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Accumulative
  amounts will vary between 0.10" to 0.30" of an inch with the
  highest amounts east of I-29.

- While mostly quiet and dry conditions are expected for the
  rest of the week, a few more rain chances (10%-20%) will be
  possible by Sunday. However, the details remain far from
  certain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

REST OF THE EVENING/TONIGHT: Quieter and mostly clear conditions
return! Taking a look across the area, cloud cover continues to
gradually clear as the stratus erodes from peak heating. Looking
aloft, a weak mid-level ridge has quick moved in to replace the
departed ULL as westerly surface winds have returned. With this
in mind and weak warm air advection aloft, temperatures have
slightly increase from the previous day with highs peaking in
the low to upper 50s this afternoon. From here, expect the
clearer conditions to persist through about midnight (06z)
before a few more areas of stratus and mid-level clouds develop
ahead a dry cold front. While no precipitation is expected with
this near-surface feature, cooler air behind the front will
makes its way to surface affecting our overnight temperatures
especially north of I-90. Nonetheless, with expect our
temperatures to gradually decrease into the low to mid 30s for
most areas with some spots along the Hwy- 14 corridor
potentially dropping into the upper 20s.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Heading into the new week, quieter conditions
will continue into Monday as surface ridging quickly moves in
just north of us to replace the departing front. Northerly to
northeasterly surface flow will become a touch breezy by Monday
afternoon as the SPG tightens leading to wind gusts up to 25
mph. With lingering cold air advection (CAA) aloft and
northerly to northeasterly flow, expect our temperatures to be
closer to our seasonal normals for the day as highs top out in
the 40s and low 50s with the warmest conditions along the
Missouri River. Looking into Tuesday, a chilly start is ahead as
most areas wake up to temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s.
However, as we tap into better mixing conditions will become
more mild with highs topping out in the upper 40s to mid 50s for
the day. As the SPG tightens, southwesterly surface winds will
become quite breezy with gusts between 30-35 mph possible
especially west of I-29. Our attention will then turn westwards
as a fairly progressive shortwave trough and its associated cold
front move through the northern and central plains from Tuesday
night into Wednesday potentially bringing our next precipitation
chances (40%-60%). Similar to yesterday, most of the 10.12z
guidance has areas of scattered showers developing ahead of the
cold front as increasing PVA interacts with the LLJ.

However, there has been a noticeable increase in coverage among
deterministic model solutions especially in the Euro/Canadian
worlds. With model-derived sounding continuing to indicate a
significant amount of dry air in the mid-levels, pattern
recognition says to hedge my bets on the drier solutions of the
GFS & NAM which have the better shower coverage just east of our
CWA with the better plume of moisture. With this all this in
mind, the general expectation is for scattered showers to
progress eastwards across our area with the front then become
more widespread east of I-29 as better saturation occurs.
Accumulative amounts are currently set to be upwards of 0.10" of
an inch west of I-29 and upwards of .30" of an east of I-29.
However, these numbers will vary over the coming days a newer
runs of guidance are produced; so keep an eye on the forecast if
you have any outdoor plans on Tuesday night or Wednesday
morning. Looking into the rest of Wednesday, any lingering
shower activity should continue to push eastwards during the
morning hours as cloud cover decreases behind the cold front.
However, breezier conditions will again return by late morning
as the SPG tightens with the arrival of more amplified ridging.
With this in mind, expect our mild stretch of temperatures to
continue as highs top out in the low to mid 50s for the day.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Looking into the latter parts of the week and
the weekend, an amplified ridging pattern will continue through
about Saturday with quasi-zonal flow aloft. Large-scale troughing
will move into the western CONUS over the weekend and potentially
affect our pattern heading into Sunday. However, long-range
guidance doesn`t have a good handle on the key details as of yet.
As a result, decided to leave the default NBM POPs in for the
extended period. Lastly, conditions will likely trend warmer
through Friday before gradually cooling down over the weekend
with the warmest conditions likely occurring on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Mostly MVFR and IFR conditions will continue this TAF period due
to lingering areas of low stratus. Taking a look at satellite
imagery, areas of eroding MVFR to IFR stratus continue to
gradually push eastwards across parts of the area this
afternoon. From here, most high resolution guidance has us
keeping the stratus through as late as 06z tonight before
things completely clear things out. However, as a cold front
swings through; could see a few areas of stratus and mid-level
clouds redevelop overnight. Lastly, westerly winds will become
more northerly to northwesterly with the frontal passage to end
the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gumbs
AVIATION...Gumbs