Spearfish, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

641
FXUS63 KUNR 090330
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
930 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke from wildfires out west continues to impact the area
  through Wednesday.

- Above normal temperatures and elevated fire conditions through
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Current Water Vapor and upper air analysis shows upper ridge from
the southwest CONUS into the northern plains. Surface analysis
shows a weak trough over the WY/SD border this afternoon. Winds
are generally out of the southwest with temperatures in the upper
70s to mid 80s.

Weak forcing along with upslope flow has allowed for some clouds
to develop over the central and northern Black Hills. Fairly dry
boundary layer, however some sprinkles may reach the ground this
afternoon. Ridge will continue to bring well above normal
temperatures through mid-week, with highs Wednesday staying in
the 80s. HRRR smoke models continue to show wildfire smoke from
Wyoming in the region at least through Wednesday.

On Thursday, ridge flattens as a wave and associated cold front
moves through the northern plains. Models continue to push back
timing of the frontal boundary towards the latter half of
Thursday, which may allow for another warm day before temperatures
drop behind the front. Models keep the bulk of any mid-level moisture
north of the forecast area Thursday, but cannot discount some
potential sprinkles in northwestern SD.

There is some model uncertainty on the overall pattern
progression over the weekend, with some models hinting at split
flow towards Saturday/Sunday. While confidence is low on any
active weather the latter half of the forecast period, confidence
remains high on seeing at or above normal temperatures through
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 930 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period.
Smoke from western wildfires may result in visibility restrictions
across portions of northeast WY and far western SD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 224 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions expected through Wednesday with
daily MinRH <20% and poor RH recovery at night over northeast
WY/far western SD. Probability of >25mph wind gusts is low. Dry
cool front drops in Thursday with a period of breezy southerly
winds ahead of it and northwesterly winds behind it (40-70%
chance 25mph+ wind gusts), which will create near critical to
critical fire weather conditions. Dry and mild/warm weather
continues through early next week.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...7
FIRE WEATHER...Dye