Sioux Falls, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

126
FXUS63 KFSD 030828
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
328 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The daylight hours today will be dry before another chance for
  precipitation returns to the area tonight through Friday.
  Precipitation will come in the forms of rain and snow though
  rain will be the predominant precipitation type.

- Beneficial rainfall amounts are likely with a 60-100% chance
  for exceeding a quarter of an inch and a 50-80% chance for
  exceeding a half an inch of rain.

- Dry weather returns for the weekend through the middle of next
  week with temperatures warming back to seasonable to
  potentially above average levels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

A few flurries persist early this morning mainly along highway-14.
Should see any chance for flurries lift north over the next few
hours. This will leave dry and quiet conditions for the daylight
hours today as subsidence takes over on the backside of a departing
upper level wave. High temperatures look to warm to the 40s to low
50s this afternoon with light and variable winds thanks to surface
high pressure passing through the area. The break from precipitation
will be short lived though as a weak shortwave trough rotates into
the forecast area this evening. Temperatures will be near to above
freezing during the evening and overnight hours where precipitation
is falling. Thus expect rain to be the predominant precipitation
type though some snow looks to mix in with the rain just before
daybreak. Low temperatures look to fall to the 30s overnight.

No break in the precipitation for Friday as the previously mentioned
upper level wave slowly de-amplifies aloft. Despite the weakening
wave, saturated thermal profiles along with decent omega (upward
motion) in the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) will keep precipitation
going throughout the day and night. High temperatures will warm to
low 40s to low 50s. A cold front will pass through the forecast area
during the late afternoon and evening hours, cooling low
temperatures down to the upper teens and 20s overnight. Rain looks
to transition back to snow Friday night but with forcing for ascent
waning, the snow is expected to be light. In terms of amounts, total
rainfall amounts from about a tenth of an inch all the way up to
three quarters of an inch are possible. As of now, the highest
amounts look to fall west of I-29 and especially west of the James
River. These amounts are supported by the ensembles as they show
high probabilities up to a 60-100% chance for exceeding a quarter of
an inch and a 50-80% chance for exceeding a half an inch of liquid
QPF. Snowfall amounts are likely to be very light with amounts
generally below an inch. The NBM supports this as it shows
probabilities only up to about 30% for exceeding an inch of snow
across parts of Beadle and Jerauld counties in South Dakota.

An extended period of dry weather begins over the weekend as broad
troughing remains in place thanks to the northern stream jet aloft.
Temperatures for the weekend look to begin below average on Saturday
with highs in the 40s expected. Sunday will be the warmer of the two
days as highs warm to the mid 40s to upper 50s. A cold front looks
to dives south through the area late Sunday though. This will drop
temperatures back to below average on Monday with highs in the upper
30s and 40s.

Good news is that Monday`s cold temperatures will not last long as
upper level ridging over the western CONUS pushes eastwards. This
will push highs back to near seasonable to above average with highs
in the 50s, 60s, and even 70s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Light snow showers north of Interstate 90 will taper off around
06Z. MVFR/IFR stratus across the area will slowly break up from
south to north through the night into Thursday morning. Gusty
northwesterly winds will diminish overnight, trending toward
light by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meyers
AVIATION...JM