Madison, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

020
FXUS63 KFSD 131131
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
631 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A boundary draped across the area today will bring rain
  chances (30-50%) to locations along and east of I-29. Severe
  weather is not expected.

- An active pattern looks to bring continued chances for showers
  and storms for the weekend and most of next week. While some
  details remain uncertain, continue to monitor the forecast for
  strong to severe storms and heavy rain potential.

- Temperatures look to remain in the 70s, 80s, and low 90s today
  through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Elevated showers and thunderstorms begin the day today north of
highway-14. A few weak persist across parts of far eastern South
Dakota and southwest Minnesota but will continue to push off to the
northeast through the rest of the overnight hours. While the mid
level wave responsible for this rain will be off to the northeast of
the area today, a surface trough will push through the forecast area
this afternoon which could result in another chance for showers and
a few thunderstorms generally along and east of I-29. The stationary
boundary that has been draped across the region will be at the
center of this inverted trough, further supporting the potential (30-
50%) for rain. Instability values look to be locally higher along
the boundary as moisture pools ahead of the front. This could result
in modest CAPE values up to 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg. At the same time,
vertical shear will be quite weak with winds within the entire
troposphere below 30 knots. Thus, any shower or storm that does
develop on the front will be weak and not severe. Any chance for
rain will come to an end during the evening hours as the boundary
drops southward to around the highway-20 corridor. Outside of rain
chances, high temperatures will warm to the 70s and 80s across the
area, coolest along highway-14 where low level stratus looks to
linger throughout the day. Overnight lows will fall to the 50s and
60s.

Saturday will be another generally dry day across the area. Highs
will be a bit warmer though as 850 mb temperatures warm to the upper
teens to about 20C aloft. Mixing these temperatures to the surface
will result in high temperatures into the 80s to low 90s, warmest
along the Missouri River Valley. The previously mentioned boundary
will push back northwards though how far north remains uncertain at
this time. Weak to negligible forcing will be present over the area
so have reduced PoPs to near zero. There could still be an isolated
shower or storm but confidence in this potential is low (<20%).
Chances for rain look to increase Saturday night though as a mid
level wave encroaches onto the area. However, location of showers
and storms is uncertain at this time. Low temperatures will fall to
the 60s overnight.

Sunday ends the weekend with continued chances for showers and
storms throughout the day. Though again, this will be highly
dependent on show weak shortwaves track throughout the day. Have
left model blended PoPs in place with precipitation chances ranging
from 30-50%. 850 mb temperatures will nudge upwards a bit more,
resulting in another hot day with highs into the 80s to low 90s.
With a moist airmass in place, large buoyancy values will be in
place with CAPE values exceeding 2,000 J/kg. Shear is quite marginal
though with a magnitude of less than 30 knots. DCAPE is also quite
high with values exceeding 1,000 J/kg. If a storm is able to develop
in this environment, it could be strong to severe with damaging
winds and potentially large hail as the primary hazards.

No break in rain chances early next week as weak shortwaves continue
to track around the upper level ridge building over the Southern
Plains. This will continue rain chances through Monday and Tuesday
though Tuesday has the higher potential at this time. This is due to
medium range guidance showing a slightly stronger shortwave trough
flattening the upper level ridge. The ensembles further support this
wave and also show moderate probabilities (50-60%) for exceeding a
quarter of an inch of rain. While not a strong signal, the Euro
Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) also shows about a 50% chance for
anomalous QPF values. Aside from rain chances, Monday will be the
hottest of the two days with highs again in the 80s to low 90s.
Highs will cool a bit on Tuesday down to the upper 70s and 80s.

Medium range guidance also shows a second, stronger shortwave trough
pushing through the area on Wednesday. The strength of the trough
varies amongst the models but it suggests that this wave brings
another round of rain to the area. The ensembles vary quite a bit
in rain potential as the Canadian and Euro ensembles show below a
20% chance for exceeding tenth of an inch of rain. The GFS ensemble
is the outlier as it shows a 40-60% chance for exceeding a tenth of
an inch of QPF. Have left model blended PoPs in place for now but
will continue to monitor this potential.

Upper level ridging looks to rebuild over the southern CONUS for the
end of next week. This could result in more active zonal flow across
the Northern Plains, continuing chances for rain. Too soon to go
into amounts or location of rainfall at this time due to increasing
variance amongst medium range guidance. High temperatures look to
remain in 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Current satellite shows low level stratus across parts of the area
early this morning. The stratus is sitting over south central South
Dakota but bends back to the highway-14 corridor and adjacent
portions of southwest Minnesota. The stratus is sitting at
MVFR/IFR/LIFR levels and also have visibilities down to
MVFR/IFR/LIFR thresholds as well. While the stratus should lift for
most of the area, do think that the stratus will stick around along
and north of highway-14 for most of the day today. This would also
keep MVFR ceilings in place for KHON.

A weak surface low along with a warm front and cold front sits
across the area this morning. This is resulting in sporadic wind
directions but should see winds turn to out of the
west/northwest/north by this afternoon. Showers and weak storms may
develop along the cold front this afternoon mainly along and east of
I-29. Should see any chance for rain come to an end this evening.

The previously mentioned stratus will fall back to MVFR/IFR/LIFR
levels this evening and night along and south of highway-14. Winds
will turn out of the east/northeast to end the TAF period which look
to be just strong enough to prevent fog from developing. &&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meyers
AVIATION...Meyers