Huron, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

401
FXUS63 KFSD 201931
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
231 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The heat will continue into Sunday. Central SD will see some
  relief by Sunday, the rest of the area by Sunday night into
  Monday. Afternoon/evening heat indices average 100-110 degrees
  while nighttime heat indices only fall to 70 to 80 degrees.

- Southerly winds will gust to 25 to 40 mph at times through
  Sunday. While fire weather concerns are fairly low, isolated
  locations have struggled to get rainfall the past 3-6 weeks so
  some locally dry locations may be susceptible.

- Sunday evening into Monday morning may see some strong to
  severe thunderstorms with potential for locally heavy
  rainfall.

- An active pattern looks to set up for much of next week.
  Still a lot of details to work out but the position of the
  upper level jet suggests the potential for multiple chances
  for showers and thunderstorms, especially far southern SD,
  northern NE and northern IA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Very warm and breezy through the night with temperatures only
falling into the lower to mid 70s. Central SD may see an isolated
shower or thunderstorm early this evening as a weak wave moves
through which could aid in allowing a couple of updrafts to develop.
While severe weather is unlikely, a wind gust to 50 mph and dime
sized hail not out of the question. Away from central SD, while
there is an abundance of instability a very strong capping inversion
will keep any convective activity at bay. Some extremely high based
ACCAS will be possible in roughly central SD later tonight, but any
precipitation that develops with that will likely evaporate before
reaching the ground. While a heat burst is not impossible, the low
level inversion appears to be a little too deep to allow any warming
at the surface. The main threat would be some locally gusty winds if
any precipitation can get close to the ground.

Another very hot day expected for Saturday with highs again from
about 95 to 105. Given the expected dew points heat indices will
average about 100-110 in the afternoon. Helping to take the edge off
a bit will be southerly winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph. The capping
inversion appears as though it will hold Saturday and Saturday night.

Sunday will see a bit stronger wave move through central SD which
will shove a cool front eastward into the area. By late afternoon
this front will be somewhere near the James Valley, the by early
evening from about Brookings to Tyndall. Initially it appears the
area will be capped into the afternoon, but with some cooler air
sneaking in aloft with the incoming wave suspect that we will see
some development along and near the surface front from roughly 23-
1z. With close to 2500 J/kg CAPE and roughly 40 knots of mid to deep
layer shear a few severe storms, possibly hail as large as 2 inches
and wind gusts to 70 mph. A few discrete cells will be possible with
what looks to be a nice low level inflow from the southwest so an
isolated tornado will be possible.

Monday into Monday night will see the threat shift southeast as
cooler air spills into the area and axis of instability shift
south.

A fairly well agreed upon pattern is still expected early to mid
week next week. A strong jet will slowly exit to the northeast of
the area from Monday through Thursday. This will leave the immediate
vicinity within the right entrance region of the upper level jet,
promoting lift as well as allowing a series of waves to traverse
northward through the region. The big question marks will be just
where the low and mid level instability sets up as convection can be
pretty finicky and any small changes in the location of any expected
instability will bring large changes to potential rainfall and
possible severe weather. However, with the expected southwest flow
aloft, any low level boundaries created by an MCS will not push as
far south, thus allowing the instability to remain nearby, which
could allow for multiple days of showers and thunderstorms. There
are even hints that this pattern could hang in through the end of
the week. The latest EC Ensemble and GEFS show about a 10-20 percent
chance for more than 4" of rain by weeks end next week, mainly in
northwest IA and far southeast SD/northeast NE. This is a bit lower
chance than before and shows the difficulty in trying to nail down
precipitation amounts 3-6 days out in the warm season. However,
changes are still likely so still a period of time to keep an eye
on. Tuesday night into Wednesday night continues to look like the
better chance for a more widespread thunderstorm threat with some
heavy rain and severe weather threats.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

VFR through the period. The main concern will be wind and LLWS.
Winds will gust to around 30 to 35 mph at times today and
continue to remain fairly strong through the night into Saturday
morning. Overnight a core of very strong winds just off the
surface around 1000 feet will rapidly increase to 50 to 60 mph
creating some LLWS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for SDZ061-062-
     065>071.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for SDZ038-050-052-053-
     057>059-063-064.
     Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for SDZ039-040-054>056-060.
MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08