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Dell Rapids, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Dell Rapids SD
National Weather Service Forecast for: Dell Rapids SD
Issued by: National Weather Service Sioux Falls, SD
Updated: 11:46 am CDT Jul 13, 2025
 
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm.  Sunny, with a high near 87. South southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Slight Chance
T-storms
Tonight

Tonight: A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm.  Mostly clear, with a low around 63. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight.
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Mostly Clear
Monday

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 89. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunny

Monday
Night
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Partly Cloudy

Tuesday

Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Mostly Sunny
then Chance
Showers
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 10pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 10pm and 1am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%.
T-storms
Likely
Wednesday

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76.
Chance
Showers
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Mostly Cloudy

Thursday

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Mostly Sunny

Hi 87 °F Lo 63 °F Hi 89 °F Lo 68 °F Hi 88 °F Lo 62 °F Hi 76 °F Lo 55 °F Hi 73 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

This Afternoon
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Sunny, with a high near 87. South southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tonight
 
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 63. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast after midnight.
Monday
 
Sunny, with a high near 89. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Tuesday Night
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 10pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 10pm and 1am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76.
Wednesday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Thursday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.
Thursday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Friday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Friday Night
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61.
Saturday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Dell Rapids SD.

Weather Forecast Discussion
987
FXUS63 KFSD 131729
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity begin to build back into the area for today.

- A low (~20% chance) thunderstorm risk for this afternoon and
  evening, and an isolated stronger to severe storm could
  produce large hail and damaging winds.

- Heat and humidity continue for Monday and Tuesday, with
  increasing storm chances on Tuesday and Tuesday night. With
  that will come a threat for severe storms along with heavy
  rainfall.

- Cooler temperatures expected for mid to late week, with
  periodic low precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Warming temperatures for today as an upper level trough oriented
through the Mississippi Valley shifts to the east - resulting in
rising upper level heights over our area. Related to that, an 850 mb
thermal ridge to our west begins to nudge into out area, and with
850 mb temperatures in the mid teens to lower 20s C by afternoon,
highs will climb into the mid 80s (east) to mid 90s (west). In
addition to the warm temperatures, it will become more humid in an
increasing southerly flow out ahead of a surface trough/frontal
boundary to our west. This will push dew points into the mid 60s to
near 70 - which will add to the discomfort. The surface
trough/frontal boundary will push eastward into our area during the
day, and hi-res models continue to develop isolated convection with
this feature in the later afternoon and evening. The main forcing
with this system will be low level convergence along the boundary,
with only weak mid/upper level forcing. As a result, anything that
develops should be pretty isolated. MLCAPE in the vicinity of the
front will run around 2000 J/KG by afternoon, this collocated with
bulk shear around 30 kts. Model soundings indicate tall skinny CAPE
with mid level lapse rates between 5 to 6 C/KM, so would expect only
isolated stronger storms. That being said, with the above mentioned
CAPE values and downdraft CAPE around 1500 J/KG, cannot rule out an
isolated storm with large hail and gusty winds - which aligns well
with the SPC Day 1 Marginal (level 1 out of 5) convective outlook.

The upper level pattern begins to transition to a more zonal flow on
Monday, and with high pressure strengthening over the Mississippi
Valley and low pressure deepening over the western High Plains, the
southerly low level flow will continue to increase over our area.
This will bring temperatures and dew points up another notch, with
highs into the upper 80s to upper 90s - with warmest readings over
central SD. Guidance continues to indicate that mainly dry
conditions will prevail for Monday into early Tuesday, with any
convection remaining to our north and west in the vicinity of a
frontal boundary draped across that area.

By later on Tuesday the boundary finally tracks into our area -
bringing an increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms into
Wednesday as a couple shortwaves track through the upper level flow.
The severe threat for Tuesday afternoon and evening remains somewhat
in question. Although there will be plenty of instability to work
with, models continue to show a rather weak mid level flow and
relatively low bulk shear. A perhaps bigger threat could be heavy
rain as the system works across the area, with ensembles showing
PWAT values in the 90th percentile or greater with respect to
climatology, and as a result the WPC Day 3 ERO slight risk (level 2
out of 4) for portions of our area seems appropriate.

On the backside of the system, temperatures drop back to below
seasonal averages for the middle and end of the week, with highs 70s
to lower 80s. As alluded to earlier, showers may continue into
Wednesday and Wednesday evening (though seeing model differences in
the specifics of this scenario). The overall trend should be for
drier conditions as we move into the end of the week into next
weekend, though periodic rain chances may remain as a series of
upper level shortwaves track across the region through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Latest
satellite shows vastly clear skies across the area expect for a
small area of mid level clouds across parts of northeast Nebraska
and northwest Iowa. A small area of smoke is also reducing
visibilities down to MVFR levels at KSUX. Winds are out of the
southwest but will be slowly turning to out of the northwest behind
a front that has entered the area. This same front will bring the
potential for showers and thunderstorms along it this afternoon. At
this time, southwest Minnesota has the highest chances for seeing
showers and storms though this could extend back into KFSD and other
parts of southeast South Dakota. Have included a PROB30 group in
KFSD`s TAF for this reason. Trends will be monitored over the
afternoon hours but any chance for rain will come to an end by
midnight. This will leave light and variable winds for the overnight
hours before winds pick up out of the southeast to end the period
tomorrow.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Meyers
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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