Spartanburg, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

168
FXUS62 KGSP 030602
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
202 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures expected Thursday even as rain chances continue.
Fair afternoon skies and exceptionally warm weather end the week. A
cold front brings shower and thunderstorm chances on Sunday, with
drier and cooler conditions through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Thursday: Upslope showers continue to develop
and track north into the NC mountains. This shower activity may
linger along the Blue Ridge Escarpment through the overnight
hours. Otherwise, expect cloudy skies and temperatures staying
elevated, as a wedge gradually erodes with very warm temps just
to our south. Temps, dewpts, winds, sky, and PoPs were all updated
to reflect the latest obs and trends thru this morning.

Otherwise...Despite the surface high moving far enough offshore
that it won`t really be in position to actively sustain the wedge
any longer, there won`t be a mechanism to erode it; rather, there
will be the usual nighttime inversion and moist southeasterly
flow keeping the boundary layer saturated...which all but
guarantees the murky conditions will persist through the night.
Lows will struggle to fall below the upper 50s or lower 60s.
The daylight hours on Thursday will feature slow clearing...as
daytime heating very slowly mixes the residual wedge.  Temps today
are tricky...since the temperature trend will be highly dependent
on how quickly the wedge scatters out.  The NBM and a consensus
of the 12z CAMs are forecasting highs in the upper 70s or even
lower 80s...but think actual highs could wind up cooler since
these models may be clearing out the wedge unrealistically fast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Wed: Upper ridge starts out over the area then slowly
moves eastward as a trough digs into the Midwest. The moist upslope/
upglide weakens Thursday evening bringing an end to any showers.
Despite the ridge in place Friday, there looks to be enough moisture
and weak instability for isolated to scattered showers across the
mountains during the afternoon and early evening as a front moves
south toward the area but stalls just to our north. An isolated
ridge top shower can`t be ruled out Saturday afternoon, but overall
chance of precip is low with less in the way of moisture and
instability as the front moves north away from the area and a
surface ridge reasserts itself. Thicknesses and heights remain high
under the ridge. This puts record highs in jeopardy both days. Lows
will be around 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Wed: The upper trough mentioned at the end of the short
range moves east and pushes a cold front into the area Sunday. There
will be plenty of forcing and shear, along with high PW values,
associated with the front. There will be some instability, but the
amount is uncertain. Therefore, there is a low severe and excessive
rainfall threat which we`ll keep an eye on as the event approaches.
A wave forms along the front slowing its eastward progression
Monday. This will keep a chance of lingering showers across the
area, but any severe and flood threat will have moved eastward.

A weak secondary front/clipper type low may cross the area Tuesday,
but the guidance keeps shifting from low chance precip to dry. Have
kept the forecast dry for now. Dry and cooler high pressure moves in
Wednesday.

Temperatures are cooler but still above normal Sunday and falling to
near normal Monday. Temps drip below normal for Tuesday and
Wednesday. This brings a frost concern for the non-mountain areas of
the Upstate and NE GA and the NC southern foothills and Piedmont,
where the growing season has started.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A wedge lingers across the Escarpment and
adjacent foothills, with all sites in the wedge or near the wedge
boundary, except for CLT. Those site may see LIFR cigs and possibly
some vsby restrictions during the pre-dawn hours. The wedge is
expected to erode, bringing winds out of the S and improve the
vsbys. The LIFR cigs will take a while to mix out, however. All
sites will likely have IFR cigs this morning and possibly into
early aftn, with guidance showing cigs may not get to VFR until
early to mid aftn. A few showers may form again during the day,
but are expected to be mostly near the Escarpment and too isolated
for a TAF mention at this time. MVFR to IFR cigs may form again
tonight after 06z. Winds will be out of the south at all sites, once
the wedge fully erodes, picking up with some low-end gusts by late
morning or midday, then weakening again late aftn into this evening.

Outlook: IFR to MVFR cigs may return again late tonight and
linger into Friday morning. Drier conditions return Friday night
into Saturday night before another cold front brings shower and
thunderstorm chances, and associated flight restrictions, back
on Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      88 1963     31 1936     64 1946     23 1936
   KCLT      90 1946     42 1915     62 1986     26 2021
                                        1946
   KGSP      87 1967     44 1901     62 2014     27 2021
                1963                                1993
                1946                                1902



RECORDS FOR 04-04

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      83 1999     33 1891     61 1893     22 1936
                1978
   KCLT      87 1999     43 1911     63 1986     29 1936
                            1899        1945
                                        1934
   KGSP      88 1963     44 1936     62 1999     25 1975
                1934



RECORDS FOR 04-05

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      86 1909     30 1891     60 2023     20 1944
                                        1910
   KCLT      88 1942     38 1891     62 1910     26 1891
   KGSP      90 1934     43 1899     60 2023     25 1904
                                        1888



RECORDS FOR 04-06

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      88 1967     36 1950     64 2023     22 1898
   KCLT      90 2010     43 1931     67 2023     28 1891
                1929
   KGSP      88 2010     47 1950     65 2023     26 1904
                            1945

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/MPR
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...