Seven Oaks, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

630
FXUS62 KCAE 112225
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
625 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected this evening as deeper moisture has
returned to the Southeast. A warming trend is then expected as
we head through the week as a more typical summertime pattern
returns with scattered afternoon showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Shower activity continuing this evening with isolated to
  scattered storms possible.
- There is potential for locally heavy rain this evening.

With the surface trof having moved a little further inland
today, the better coverage of rain, including some heavy
pockets, has moved to the I-20 corridor and northward. Despite
little to no synoptic forcing, plentiful moisture is getting
forced upward by surface convergence thanks to the
aforementioned trof. Scattered showers with a few isolated
thunderstorms should continue through the evening, with coverage
diminishing but not disappearing overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Temperatures begin to warm Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Chances for showers/storms each day but coverage is expected
  to be greater Tuesday.

The forecast into Tuesday and the midweek remains largely on
track as upper ridging and high pressure slowly slide into the
region from the west. This should bring temperatures that get
closer to normal by Wednesday. Temperatures Tuesday may be
modulated by shower/storm chances some, but in general should
still reach the mid to upper 80s. As the periphery of the ridge
moves in Tuesday, both deterministic and ensemble model guidance
are in good agreement that a shortwave should ride along the
western periphery across the northern FA throughout the day,
perhaps with some weak surface troughing remaining in place as
well. Isolated showers may be ongoing to start the day but with
PWAT`s that remain greater than 2", this forcing should allow
for scattered to numerous showers and storms to form starting as
early as the late morning, but especially during the afternoon
and evening. The mean HREF solution depicts decent instability
(MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg), which is supported by CAM forecast
soundings, but deep layer shear will remain lacking. This will
bring another day where the greatest risk would be heavy
rainfall in any convection and possible isolated flooding where
training occurs. The area most at risk would be across the
northern Midlands and northern CSRA where the antecedent
soaking rainfall from last week has kept soils here rather
saturated. Due to this, a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for
excessive rainfall from WPC is seen across much of the area. As
the shortwave exits overnight, some shower activity may linger
mainly across the north into Wednesday morning.

Upper ridging begins to work overhead throughout the day on
Wednesday, bringing near normal temperatures and more seasonal
shower and storm chances during the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures should push back into the low 90s and the overall
environment should have moderate instability, but with PWAT`s
that look like they may fall slightly toward 1.9-2". Still,
plentiful moisture should allow for isolated to scattered
showers/storms by the afternoon and evening where the severe
risk appears fairly low. As has been seen the past couple days,
locally heavy rainfall should be the primary risk in any storms,
but frequent lightning can also be expected. The chance for any
activity to linger overnight is a bit lower than has been seen,
but an isolated shower cannot be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Warming trend the remainder of the period with more typical
  afternoon shower/storm chances.

Our more typical conditions for August are expected to continue
much of the late week and through this weekend, possibly
continuing into the early week. Ensemble guidance continues to
show the upper ridge slowly working westward through Thursday
and possibly Friday, bringing seasonal temperatures and
precipitation chances. By Friday and into Saturday, the ridge
should retrograde west enough that some weak troughing and a
very diffuse frontal feature near the FA, which may bring
slightly cooler temperatures and increased rain chances mainly
Saturday, but possibly as early as Friday. The end of the
weekend appears to have near normal temperatures and rain
chances before greater uncertainty enters the forecast heading
into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered to widespread showers and associated restrictions
likely to remain over much of the next 24 hours.

Ceilings outside of any rainfall continue to be vfr early this
evening. Brief ceiling and visibility restrictions will occur
with heavier showers tonight. With a surface trough moving
through, expect at least some scattered showers to remain
overnight and into Tuesday morning. Overnight, ceilings are
expected to decrease from current vfr conditions down into lower
into MVFR and eventually IFR after about 06z-07z. These
restrictions are anticipated to remain into Tuesday morning,
then guidance does show conditions lifting back to vfr outside
of any showers around 16z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Expect periods of restrictions and
convection each day as deep moisture remains in place early this
week. By mid-week, more typical summertime conditions return.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$