Myrtle Beach, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

039
FXUS62 KILM 052044
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
344 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure across New England will move off the East Coast
over the next few days. Temperatures will surge above normal through
Thursday as subtropical air moves onshore. Rain chances increase
Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure may return Friday into
next weekend before a front approaches early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Offshore high pressure has allowed for consistent onshore flow
today, evidenced by the cloud streets captured on the latest GOES-16
visible feeds. High pressure will continue to creep further offshore
tonight and Wednesday, but the western extent of it will still
maintain its influence into the Carolinas.

Late tonight, winds go calm, and dewpoint depressions draw within a
degree or two. In fact, the lowest 100 mb look rather saturated
inland. Looks like another setup for fog before sunrise Wednesday
morning, lingering into the first couple of hours after sunrise.
Once again, this fog will be patchy, with probably a few dense spots
along the SC Pee Dee region and the interior portions of the NC
coastal plain. Keep those lights on during the morning commute, just
not the high beams. Check that speed too.

Finally have a bit more "action" for Wednesday than what we`ve seen
in quite awhile. Shortwave energy rides up the Gulf and into GA/FL
by late morning/early afternoon. Upper flow becomes southwesterly,
bringing plenty of rich, subtropical air, partially broken off from
Tropical Storm Rafael. The best rain chances are far off to the west
in central SC, the CSRA, and into central Georgia, but with the
large swath of moisture building in, rain chances will tick up
around these parts as well, particularly in northeast SC.
Precipitable water values are near or just above an inch right now,
but will soar close to 2 inches by late Wednesday afternoon.

Clouds increase throughout the day, and highs shoot up to the low-to-
mid 80s, as we continue to forget what month we`re in. Showers will
start streaming in from the southwest, filling in more as the
afternoon wears on. Moderate to heavy rainfall possible across parts
of the Pee Dee and Grand Strand regions. The area remains in D0
(Abnormally Dry) to D1 (Moderate Drought), but even so, if there`s
enough training over a particular area, ponding or minor flooding
may occur in some of the more low-lying areas. As such, the Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) does have most of northeast SC in a
"Marginal Risk" (threat level 1/4) for excessive rainfall. May need
to keep an eye on this when the time comes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
With deep ridging offshore, moisture advection from the SSW combined
with PVA associated with 500mb impulses rounding the offshore ridge
will lead to a period of cloudy and unsettled weather Wednesday
night through Thursday. PWATs reach around 2" across northeast SC
during this period, which is rather anomalous for this time of year.
Current forecast has 1.5-2.5" of rain across northeast SC through
Thursday evening, and 0.5-1.5" for southeast NC. Potential for 3+
inches in southern parts of Georgetown and Williamsburg counties.
Pops decrease after sunset Thursday, but there may be lingering
light showers through Thursday night.

Due to clouds, rain, and WAA, low temps Wednesday night will be in
the upper 60s. This will challenge current record high-minimum temp
records for November 7th. Current forecast has highs in the mid to
upper 70s Thursday, with dewpoints around 70F, courtesy of
subtropical air. Low temps Thursday night still almost 20 degrees
above normal in the mid 60s.

Record high minimum temps for Thursday Nov 7
Wilmington     68 in 2015
Lumberton      65 in 2003
N Myrtle Beach 66 in 2003
Florence   66 in 2015

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast continues to be a bit uncertain heading into next weekend.
Front drops down across the area early Friday before 850mb ridge
rebuilds overhead. Subsidence from the ridge will keep rain chances
low - however column moisture remains decent (~1.5" PWAT) and
although forcing is weak, have kept 15-20% pops in the forecast
Friday into Sunday (granted a bit lower than previous forecast).
Brief surface wedge from the north Saturday night into Sunday may
lower pops further before a coastal trough looks to develop Sunday
afternoon. Another front approaches the area early next week.
Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Winds out of the SE or ESE
have recorded gusts up to 18 kts at times today, but that should
calm by sunset this evening. Biggest issue is fog that should form
before sunrise Wednesday, particularly inland. KFLO and KLBT stand
the greatest chance at capturing this, and may go down into IFR or
even LIFR. KILM may also experience some restrictions from fog, but
confidence is less here, and it may only be more like MVFR. Fog
should mix out by 13-14Z. VFR ceilings build in ahead of a front
towards the end of the period, with southeasterly winds increasing
to 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory continues until 6 AM EST
Wednesday morning. ESE to SE winds at 10 kts continue through the
period, with seas gradually decreasing to 3-5 ft after the advisory
concludes. Showers build in late Wednesday morning through the
afternoon, particularly from the South Santee River to Little River
out 20 nm.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Southeasterly winds persist across
the local coastal waters through Thursday evening. Winds turn
northeasterly by Friday afternoon behind a front that drops down
from the north early Friday. Northeast winds strengthen to 15-20 kts
Saturday afternoon as wedge of high pressure briefly develops inland
before winds turn back to southeasterly Sunday as aforementioned
high pressure moves offshore. Seas 3-5 ft Thursday briefly lowers to
3-4 ft Friday as SE swell weakens a bit, before wave heights
increase again to 3-5 ft late Saturday with the NE wind wave joining
the SE swell. Chance of rain Wednesday night and Thursday over the
waters, although thunder chances are fairly limited - best chance
for isolated thunder will be south of Murrells Inlet Wednesday
night. Rain may be heavy, and possibly widespread, at times causing
reduced visibilities.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB/VAO