Moncks Corner, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

194
FXUS62 KCHS 221931
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
331 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

...HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S. the first
half of this week, then shift into the Atlantic for the second
half of the week. Surface troughing should form over the region
the second half of this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Deep-layered high pressure with a 500 hPa height of around
598DM will remain centered north of the area tonight and will
slowly strengthen. The anticyclone is really starting to exert
its influence on the region with warming temperatures aloft
helping to curtail much in the way of meaningful shower/tstm
activity today. A few brief showers tried to pop near the
beaches earlier, but have since dissipated given the lack of
meaningful low-level convergence along the pure sea breeze
circulation and the likely entrainment of dry air. Rain-free
conditions will persist overnight, although an isolated
shower/tstm could develop closer to the west wall of the Gulf
Stream early Monday. It will remain warm tonight with lows
dropping into the lower 70s inland to around 80 at the beaches
and Downtown Charleston. Winds should go calm later this evening
as the sea breeze decays and the boundary layer decouples. This
could allow a few spots to drop into the upper 60s where
radiational cooling can be locally maximized, but these
instances should be pretty isolated. Some shallow ground fog
could develop just before daybreak, mainly south of I-16 and up
into the far southern South Carolina coastal counties where 1000
hPa condensation pressure deficits will be at their lowest. No
major reductions in visibilities are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The mid-levels will consist of a very strong ridge over the
eastern half of the U.S. with an embedded 598 dam High over the
Mid-Atlantic States. The embedded High should weaken to about
594 dam and shift over the TN Valley by Wednesday. While we will
have very high heights over our area, the highest will remain
just to our north and northwest. At the surface, High pressure
will be located over the Southeast U.S. through Wednesday,
gradually weakening. Though, there are hints that weak surface
troughing could start to form over our region on Wednesday. This
pattern will usher plenty of moisture into our region. But this
won`t equate to much convection because the aforementioned
ridge and High will limit the convective potential. Models keep
Monday fairly dry, with at most a lone weak shower along the sea
breeze. Tuesday, the models hint at maybe isolated weak
convection along the afternoon sea breeze. Wednesday, should be
a repeat of Tuesday. Overnights should be dry. But the main
story will be the heat. The combination of heights and 850 mb
temperatures will yield above normal temperatures. Highs will
easily climb into the 90s each day, except cooler at the beaches
due to the afternoon sea breeze. Tuesday appears to be the
hottest day in the short term with some inland highs hitting the
upper 90s and making a run for the 100 degree mark. Heat
indices will also climb well into the 100s each day. As of right
now, heat indices hit Heat Advisory criteria (108 degrees) on
Tuesday. But we`re concerned the inland dew points will lower in
the afternoon due to the westerly winds more than the models
are showing, which would cause heat indices to be a few degrees
lower. This will continue to be monitored. Also, low
temperatures will remain very mild and only fall into the low to
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The strong mid-level ridge initially in place over our region
should weaken by the end of the week. Likewise, the surface High
will shift away from our area and be replaced by surface
troughing. This will cause a gradual increase in diurnal
convection. Temperatures will remain above normal into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
22/18z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 18z Monday. Brief, isolated showers
could meander near KJZI and possibly KSAV through about 20z, but
no impacts are expected. Some shallow ground fog could develop
just before daybreak Monday, especially at KSAV, but no
meaningful reductions in vsbys are expected.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR. There could be brief
flight restrictions due to afternoon/evening convection Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A typical southerly wind regime for summer will
persist. Speeds will average 10 kt or less with seas 1-2 ft.

Monday through Thursday: High pressure will remain across the
Southeast U.S. the first half of this week, then shift into the
Atlantic for the second half of the week. Surface troughing
should form over our region the second half of this week. But a
typical summertime wind pattern will be in place. Each day,
winds should back with the formation of the afternoon sea
breeze. The strongest winds will be along the land/sea interface
and across the Charleston Harbor (with it`s passage). Each
night, winds will veer and increase as the nocturnal jet sets
up, especially closer to the coast. Seas will generally be 2 ft.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk remains in place for
the Georgia beaches through this evening

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The new moon is Tuesday night, which will yield higher
astronomical tides. Winds should be from the SW, which would
limit tidal anamolies. However, models still have noticeable
anamolies. So while Coastal Flooding (mainly for the Charleston
tide gauge) is not forecasted at this time, it won`t take much
for it to occur, prompting an advisory.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$