Mauldin, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

761
FXUS62 KGSP 100659
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
259 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving thru the area today will produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Most areas will see quiet weather and
lower humidity Wednesday behind the front. Seasonably hot and humid
weather returns late in the week with numerous showers and storms
each afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 146 AM Tuesday: Early morning water vapor imagery depicts a
closed and vertically stacked upper low spinning over the Great
Lakes region with a trough axis extending just east of the
Mississippi River. Surface observations along with low-level ThetaE
fields place a cold front draped from eastern Kentucky to central
Tennessee. A complex of deep convection also resides across the
coastal plain and will continue to shift farther east of the area
through daybreak. The rest of the pre-dawn hours will remain quiet
with no radar returns across the area, although a few isolated
sprinkles or light shower cannot be ruled out mainly along the
Tennessee border. A few instances of patchy fog will also be
possible, especially in favorable mountain valleys as well as in the
foothills along the I-40 corridor. While a couple pockets of dense
fog could be realized, coverage isn`t anticipated to be enough to
warrant a dense fog advisory.

Heading into the daylight hours, any pockets of fog will quickly mix
out following sunrise with low stratus also lifting and scattering.
The previously mentioned upstream cold front will swing across the
area today with timing around peak heating. Sufficient forcing for
ascent coupled with modest instability will support the development
of a broken band of convection along the advancing boundary.
Coverage should remain scattered for much of the area, but several
CAM members hint at the potential for a more solid linear segment to
fill in across the North Carolina foothills and push into the I-77
corridor. A couple strong storms with gusty winds will be possible
and an isolated severe storm with locally damaging winds cannot be
completely discounted if a more solid line with a balanced cold pool
is able to get cranking. The best chance for any isolated severe
storms will be generally along and east of I-77. Convection will
shift east of the area by this evening with a quiet post frontal
night expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 AM Tue, key messages:

1. Cold front stalls to our south Wednesday. Convection looks to
be suppressed over most of the CWA that day in the drier air
north of the front and weak subsidence aloft.

2. The front reactivates Thursday and convective chances tick
upward a bit. These chances linger into early Friday, as
elevated showers or storms remain possible in the frontal zone.

3. Max temps trending gradually warmer over the short term period.

Shortwave axis will drift across the Carolinas/Georgia during
the day Wednesday. Weak high pressure will spread over the CWA
behind that and the sfc front; flow in the mid to upper levels
will be W to NW but weak enough downslope may not be much of a
factor, and low-level flow may remain light SW`ly. Prog
soundings are dry aloft and a slight midlevel subsidence
inversion remains through the day. The axis of the shortwave may
interact with the front to promote some convective development
along it, so isolated precip is not out of the question in our
far SE nearest the front, and a stray shower over the mountains
can`t be entirely ruled out although not necessarily worthy of
PoPs.

The front begins to reactivate Wed night or early Thu as
shortwave moves thru TX and toward the lower MS Valley,
promoting southerly flow across the Southeast. Profiles moisten
enough in the layer above the PBL to make deep convection
plausible over most of the area by the diurnal peak. Winds are
weak through most of the column and thus shear will be very
weak. Surface to midlevel delta-theta-e is marginal at around 20
K, but DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg suggests a few storms could
pose a risk of a damaging microburst Thu aftn/evening. A few
hundred joules of MUCAPE persists Thursday night so some
overnight showers/storms are possible; continued moisture return
suggests wind threat will decrease while threat of locally
heavy rain will increase, with storm motion remaining slow owing
to the weak environmental flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM Tue, key messages:

1. Subtropical humidity returns to the area by Friday, which
essentially remains in place through the remainder of the
period; temps remain near normal.

2. Moist profiles and weak shear persist, supporting a typical
June threat of diurnally driven wet microbursts producing
localized heavy rainfall and perhaps a few instances of
damaging wind.

3. A weak cold front may impinge on the area Monday or early
Tuesday, but confidence is low and airmass change appears
unlikely.

Between the MS Valley shortwave and the Bermuda High, the warm
front continues to shift northward Friday and steady S to SW
persists over the CWA. This return flow continues through the
weekend, and dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s
over most of the Piedmont each afternoon. The atmospheric column
approaches saturation over a deep layer; PWATs trend gradually
higher each day through Sunday, although values look likely to
remain relatively tame at only 1.3 to 1.5 SD above climo per
ensembles. PoPs are higher than climo, chance Piedmont and
likely mountains on Friday, and likely to categorical Sat and
Sun. 0-3km and 0-6km shear remain weak and storm motion should
remain slow. DCAPE and theta-e lapses look marginal for a severe
wind threat, although the weak shear and high PWATs are classic
for June. Wet microbursts producing torrential rain and
isolated instances of damaging wind still look possible each day
thru Sunday. Temps will be near normal, so despite the humidity
Heat Index should top out only in the mid 90s.

The seasonably hot, humid weather and mainly diurnal PoPs most
likely will repeat on Monday, but confidence diminishes a bit
with models still not in agreement on the progression of the
trough out of the MS Valley. This could carry a frontal boundary
across the Appalachians late Mon or early Tue, mainly serving
to focus convection and perhaps increase shear. The 12/18z ECMWF
runs suggested a backdoor front might instead push down the
East Coast although probably not bringing cooler or less humid
air to the CWA until after the end of the period, if at all. The
forecast continues to reflect humid and stormy weather Monday,
not much different from Sunday, but that could change one way or
the other on subsequent forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Low stratus and patchy fog will be the
immediate focus through the rest of the early morning hours. Several
MVFR to IFR ceiling observations have started coming in mainly south
of I-85 and near the Charlotte area. MVFR to IFR ceilings should
become common through daybreak along and south of the I-85 corridor.
Patchy fog will also be possible, especially across mountain valleys
and in the foothills along the I-40 corridor (KAVL/KHKY). Any patchy
fog should mix out following sunrise along with lifting and
scattering of the low stratus deck. Cloud bases will remain low,
however, and brief periods of MVFR ceilings may continue into the
early afternoon before the stratus fully scatters. Thereafter,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along an
advancing cold front, especially along the I-85 corridor. PROB30
groups have been carried at all terminals for brief visibility and
ceiling restrictions. VFR is expected to return this evening as any
storms depart the area.

Outlook: VFR should continue through Wednesday. Mainly diurnal
thunderstorms return Thursday and will persist each
afternoon/evening into the weekend. There will be potential for late
night and early morning fog and low stratus restrictions each day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...TW