Lexington, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

773
FXUS62 KCAE 231511 AAA
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1111 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions, with dangerous heat index values, are
expected during the next few days under the continued influence
of a strong upper ridge. Rain chances increase mid to late week
as ridging begins to break down.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Message(s):

-  Dry. Heat continues to build into the region with well above
normal temperatures.

Satellite imagery showing clear skies across the region under
the influence of the very strong 598DM upper ridge centered
over Virginia. Atmospheric moisture has increased slightly but
still remains slightly below normal with values between 1.3-1.5
inches. Forecast soundings continue to indicate a strong
subsidence inversion around 700mb which should help to suppress
convection across the region. Temperatures already running warm
and pushing through the upper 80s to 90 degrees as of 11am,
aided in some part by west-northwesterly downsloping flow. These
temps are slightly higher than forecast and with convective
temperatures around 96-97 degrees, think mostly clear skies
should prevail and will bump up max temperatures a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Hot and humid with heat index values close to Heat Advisory
  criteria.

- Rain chances increase on Wednesday with isolated to scattered
  showers and thunderstorms possible.

Tonight, clear skies and light to near calm winds will return,
and lows will only fall into the balmy mid 70s.

Strong upper ridging will be centered to our north on Tuesday
and will likely begin to break down across the Southeastern US
on Wednesday as a mid-level feature undercuts the ridge. This
will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 90s to near 100
degrees on Tuesday, and the mid to upper 90s on Wednesday. The
combination of heat and humidity will allow heat index values to
reach the 103 to 108 range, potentially slightly higher on
Wednesday. These values place us close to our Heat Advisory
criteria of 108 degrees for two or more hours. No heat products
will be issued with this forecast package. Regardless of
criteria being met, caution should be exercised while outdoors
during peak heating. Rain chances have increased since
yesterday, especially on Wednesday. Added Chance PoPs to the
forecast on Wednesday during the afternoon and evening hours. It
is interesting to note that some machine learning guidance
shows an increased risk for strong to severe thunderstorms on
Wednesday, especially towards the Upstate. The timing and
coverage of this convective could also determine if Heat
Advisory criteria will be made. Some of the hi-res guidance
suggest convective development on Tuesday as well so added
Slight Chance PoPs for Tuesday evening in the Pee Dee region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Upper ridging weakens through the period allowing for a more
  typical summertime pattern including daily shower and
  thunderstorm chances.

The upper ridge should continue to weaken across the region late
this week. This will allow temperatures to return to near
seasonal values for late June with highs in the lower to mid
90s. A typical summer pattern becomes established with warm and
humid conditions and daily chances for afternoon and evening
convection. There will be a low to medium, 30 to 40 percent,
chance of measurable precipitation each day. The severe threat
appears low at this time, though summertime pulse thunderstorms
always bring the risk of a few stronger thunderstorms bringing a
strong wind risk.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

SKC this morning, though some upstream thin high cirrus to the
northeast may move over the terminals over the next few hours.
Surface winds remain variable much of this morning, then begin
to favor a SLY/SELY direction around midday through the
afternoon, remaining less than 10 kts. Mostly clear skies are
expected through the end of the TAF period with only FEW cumulus
and cirrus during the afternoon and into this evening before
becoming SKC.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The remainder of this week looks to be
on the drier side, though a slight increase in rain chances
Wednesday and beyond may lead to very brief restrictions if the
terminals are impacted.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$