Lexington, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

741
FXUS62 KCAE 160557
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
157 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak upper ridging will continue to break down through the mid
week, leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher rain
chances each day. Upper ridging then returns for the late week
and thus weekend, bringing warming temperatures and more typical
shower/storm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated to Scattered Storms this afternoon

Skies will likely be mostly clear early this morning with temps
falling into the low/mid 70s across the area. No convection is
expected with stable air over the forecast area. With crossover
temps in the low 70s we may see some patchy fog around sunrise
but fog should be restricted to fog prone locations such as near
streams and bodies of water.

Surface low pressure will shift further west today into the
Gulf. The area of subsidence which kept convection rather
limited the previous day will also shift west today. This
should allow for higher thunderstorm coverage than the previous
day. The highest chances are in the eastern Midlands and Pee
Dee where subsidence is weaker and the sea breeze helps trigger
convection. Instability remains relatively weak for the season
limiting the threat of severe weather. The western Midlands may
see only isolated storms with some drier air still in place
there. CAMs add confidence to the forecast with HREF
neighborhood probs of QPF highest along the I-95 corridor and
the Pee Dee. Temperatures today will be near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

_ Scattered afternoon thunderstorms forecast each day.

Weak troughing will persist at the surface across the Midlands of SC
through the next couple days as low pressure meanders across Florida
and into the Gulf. Aloft, ridging will hold strong over the
southeastern states, building in from the east. A tropical-like
airmass will remain in place, resulting in PWAT values pushing 2.0
inches at times. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
be possible each afternoon, aided from the weak troughing at the
surface. Frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall will be
the main hazards. The overall severe threat remains low, with ML
CAPE values only around 1000 J/kg and no mentionable shear. Storm
motions look to be more progressive than previous days, lowering the
flooding threat with any thunderstorms. However, a strong to
marginally severe storm or locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled
out where boundary collisions occur. Each evening will feature
diminishing rain chances and overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key message(s):


- Warming temperatures into the weekend.

- Typical summertime pattern will continue with afternoon showers
and thunderstorms

Upper ridging will prevail aloft over the southeastern states, as
supported by ensemble guidance. Additionally high pressure will
build in at the surface. The building high pressure will yield
warming temperatures, with high temperatures Friday and through the
weekend reaching into the upper 90s. Heat index values are forecast
to reach to around 100-105 through the weekend. Lacking any large
scale forcing, a typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms is forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions likely outside of afternoon convection

Restrictions not expected this morning with slightly drier air
over the region. Models have shown some indications of
stratus/fog toward daybreak, but they have been too aggressive
over the past few nights. So instead we went more with a
persistence forecast keeping VFR conditions in place.

Winds will be more out of the S/SSE today with speeds near 10
kts in the afternoon. Convection will develop this afternoon.
Yesterday`s area of subsidence which kept showers isolated has
shifted west. This will allow scattered thunderstorms with
higher coverage than the previous day particularly in the
eastern FA and Pee Dee where the sea breeze develops and
moisture is deeper. Storms should subside shortly after 00Z as
winds become light and variable.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical seasonal restrictions
continue with daily convection and patchy early morning
fog/stratus possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$