Greenville, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

868
FXUS62 KGSP 230002
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
702 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and cool high pressure moves off the East Coast tonight.  A warm
front will lift northeast through the area Tuesday, bringing small
rain chances to the mountains and an unusually warm air mass for
late December to the region. Expect dry conditions elsewhere, and
well-above normal temperatures for the Christmas holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1157 AM EST Monday: Amplifying upper ridge will build over
the central CONUS and gradually nudge east during the forecast
period. Strong surface high currently sitting over the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas has kept a very dry airmass in place, with dewpoints
in the teens and single digits, leading to RH values tanking below
25% for a majority of the CWFA, with minimum values dipping to
15-20%. Lights winds will limit any type of critical fire weather
concerns, but a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for northeast
Georgia through the early evening hours. Afternoon highs will be
near-normal today.

The surface high shifts offshore by tonight, allowing for a weak
low-level southwesterly return flow, while a weak shortwave to the
north shifts over the Great Lakes region. CAMs have picked up on
scattered reflectivity across the region later tonight into Tuesday
morning, but profiles indicate only a shallow moisture layer above
a very dry subcloud layer. As a result, CAMs are likely picking
up on scattered sprinkles and/or virga. However, with the enough
moisture available above the subcloud layer under the warm advection
regime, expect a deck of stratocu to develop by daybreak Tuesday and
remain stubborn through the morning hours before scattering as the
925mb-700mb flow veers to a downsloping northwesterly component
following the departing shortwave to the north. With not enough
confidence that measurable rainfall reaches the surface, kept
any mentionable PoPs out of the forecast across the Piedmont and
foothills. Mechanical lift will be able to squeeze the most out
of any shallow moisture that`s available along the mountains over
the immediate TN border and ridgetops, allowing for mentionable on
and off slight chance PoPs starting just before daybreak Tuesday
and lingering throughout the daytime period. P-type is expected
to remain all liquid as temperatures will be too warm for anything
else, even at the highest peaks. Otherwise, dewpoints will recover
into the upper 30s and 40s by Tuesday afternoon with higher heights
in place and a continued warm advection regime. In this case,
afternoon highs on Tuesday will jump to 8-12 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1100 AM EST Monday:

Key Message: Warming trend ramps up through the middle of the
week, with small rain chances in the NC mountains, mainly near
the TN border.

Mid level ridging will be in place across the region for Wednesday
and Christmas day. This will lead to very warm temperatures with
highs each day 17-20 degrees above normal. These forecast highs are
within a few degrees of records for GSP and CLT climate sites. (See
climate section below for more details).

A few rain showers are possible in the North Carolina mountains
through this period, but amounts would be very light and of little
impact.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1110 AM EST Monday:

Key Message: Well-above-normal temperatures will continue into the
weekend.

The mid level ridge will become slightly suppressed southward by
Friday and Saturday, but highs should remain warm in the 15-18
degrees above normal range each day. A pattern change should begin
to occur by the very end of the period, but that will be
incorporated into the forecast over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue thru the
00z taf period. The only exception is the potential for some low-end
VFR clouds to drop below 3000 ft tomorrow morning beginning around 10z.
More than likely, I expect cigs to remain above 3000 ft. Otherwise, a
broad area of stratocu between roughly 4 and 6 kft will continue to
spread over the area from the west, as an area of high clouds lingers
over our NE zones impacted KHKY and KCLT. In addition, a few sprinkles
can`t be ruled out overnight and into the morning, but the boundary lyr
remains very dry, so it`s difficult to see how any precip would reach
the sfc. Otherwise, outside the mtns, winds will continue to favor a
light, SELY direction tonight with some sites likely going light and
VRB to calm. Winds will toggle around to SWLY by early morning and
strengthen by late morning with low-end gusts expected at all taf sites
except KHKY. At KAVL, winds are expected to favor a SELY direction thru
the overnight and eventually pick up from the W/NW by late morning. Some
low-end gusts are possible at KAVL tomorrow, but they will likely be too
intermittent to include in the taf. In addition, a few hrs of LLWS is
expected at KAVL beginning around 10z Tuesday and at KHKY beginning
around 12z.

Outlook: A weak front will bring low-end chances for rain and associated
restrictions through early Wednesday, mainly across the mtns. Otherwise,
mostly dry, VFR conditions should prevail thru the end of the week, out-
side of possible patchy mtn valley fog and low stratus each morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 12-24

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      72 1955     17 1906     59 2015     -5 1983
   KCLT      73 2015     29 2022     63 2015      6 1983
                            1906
   KGSP      71 1964     28 2022     61 2015      7 2022



RECORDS FOR 12-25

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      71 2021     14 1983     59 2015     -7 1983
   KCLT      77 1955     22 1983     63 2015      4 1983
   KGSP      78 1955     22 1983     61 2015      6 1983



RECORDS FOR 12-26

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      78 1971     17 1902     55 2015      0 1983
   KCLT      77 2021     27 1983     58 2015      6 1983
                                        1964
   KGSP      76 2021     28 1983     62 1987      5 1985
                2015        1980



RECORDS FOR 12-27

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      72 1971     19 1902     59 2015      3 1925
   KCLT      72 2021     22 1892     65 2015     15 1970
                2015                                1948
                1971                                1925
   KGSP      75 1971     29 1925     64 2015     12 1925

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CAC/JPT
SHORT TERM...SCW
LONG TERM...SCW
AVIATION...JPT
CLIMATE...CAC