Goose Creek, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

795
FXUS62 KCHS 150524
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1224 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push offshore this evening. High pressure
will then return and prevail into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The surface cold front is now well offshore with the 850 hPa
running several hours behind. Extensive post-frontal stratus has
filled in across much of the area and will likely linger for
several more hours until the flow aloft becomes downslope
dominated in the wake of the 850 hPa front. Near term grids have
been readjusted slightly to reflect a slightly cloudier
solution. Lows from the mid-upper 40s well inland to the mid 50s
at the beaches are on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Closed mid level low will be traversing across the mid Atlantic
region at the start of the period along with a pocket of cool-ish
air air skirting southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.
Behind the trough, building upper level ridge axis and attending
surface high pressure will be moving through the central/southern
Plains on Friday before building into the eastern/southeastern CONUS
through the weekend. In the wake of the system moving through the
region today, there may be some lingering cloud cover around early
Friday. But clearing skies are anticipated through the morning hours
leaving mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. Forecast soundings
suggest high temperatures on Friday will range from the middle to
upper 60s...a few ticks below normal. Lows Friday night will be
dipping into the 40s most areas away from the coast with lower to
middle 40s anticipated well inland.

Weekend weather: Aforementioned upper level ridging/surface high
pressure dominates the region through the weekend leading to rain-
free weather. Still cool-ish Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to
around 70 but back into the lower 70s by Sunday. Saturday
night/Sunday morning low temperatures will probably be the coldest
through the entire forecast period with lows in the upper 30s well
inland to middle 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level ridging and surface high pressure continues to dominate
through at least Monday and probably the daylight hours Tuesday as
well. The warming trend to back above normal continues with daytime
highs in the middle 70s Monday and middle 70s to near 80 by Tuesday.

Meanwhile, closed upper level trough is forecast to develop across
the Central Plains around midweek and further deepen across the
eastern/southeastern CONUS during the latter half of next week. As
this occurs, remnant low from TS Sara might get picked up by the
trough and work its way up the southeast coast during the
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, although forecast confidence is fairly
low in that scenario panning out (still have to see just what
happens with TS Sara over the next few days). Either way, a period
of unsettled weather with the deepening trough is anticipated around
midweek and we could get a shot of fairly cool air for the latter
half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
15/06 TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: IFR cigs have filled in behind the cold front
and will linger for several more hours before the flow aloft
becomes downslope dominated. Once that occurs, the scouring out
of the low stratus will commence. That looks to occur roughly in
the 09-12 period and TEMPO groups were utilized during this time
to reflect cconditions occasional MVFR cigs as the scouring out
occurs. VFR should return at all three terminals by mid-
morning Gusty winds will persist through mid-afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds in the Charleston Harbor have been teetering very close
to advisory thresholds. Things should settle down into the 15-20
kt range which is just below the harbor 20 kt Small Craft
Advisory threshold.

Tonight: A cold front will sweep off the coast this evening with
cold air advection developing in its wake. This will result in
another wind surge overnight as cool/dry air promotes low-lvl mixing
into 1000 mb geostrophic winds around 30-35 kt. Northwest winds are
expected to increase to 20-25 kt across most local waters with even
a few gusts up to 30 kt across outer Georgia waters. Seas will also
build overnight, generally peaking between 3-5 ft across nearshore
waters and 4-6 ft across offshore Georgia waters. Given the setup,
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for nearshore South Carolina
waters and outer Georgia waters, and will begin across nearshore
Georgia waters at midnight. Conditions across the Charleston
Harbor should fall short of Small Craft Advisory level conditions,
but a few gusts up to 20-25 kt remain possible later tonight
near the harbor entrance.

Friday through Monday: Surface high pressure will build across the
eastern/southeastern U.S. through the weekend before shifting
offshore early next week. NW to N winds and seas will be elevated
Friday into Saturday, then trend lower Saturday night onward. Small
Craft Advisories will remain in effect for the Georgia and South
Carolina nearshore waters through Friday morning before gradually
expiring by Friday evening. Small Craft Advisory for the GA waters
beyond 20 nm will remain in effect through Saturday evening owing to
elevated seas. More tranquil conditions are expected Sunday through
Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tide levels will continue Friday and through the
weekend along the entire southeast South Carolina and southeast
Georgia coast with the highest tide levels occurring with the
morning high tides. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is
anticipated although there is a risk for major coastal flood
levels with the Saturday morning high tide for Charleston and
Coastal Colleton Counties. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in
effect for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties Friday
morning and could eventually be needed for Beaufort County, SC
and south to McIntosh County, GA for the Friday morning high
tide cycle.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM EST this morning for
     SCZ049-050.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ352-
     354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for AMZ374.

&&

$$