Easley, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

286
FXUS62 KGSP 130249
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1049 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and humid weather, with numerous showers and storms
each afternoon and evening, can be expected through the weekend. A
warming trend will occur next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 10:25 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Linger through Late Tonight

2) A Few Strong to Severe Storms Possible Friday Afternoon/Evening

3) Warm and Humid East of the Mountains

Sct showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly make their way NE
across our area early late this evening. Convective coverage should
gradually diminish as we move into the overnight hrs and instability
dwindles. Regardless, activity is likely to linger well past midnight.
Locally heavy rainfall within training convection appears to be the
main concern over the next few hrs. With PWATs ranging from 1.5 to 2
inches, we`ve already seen rain rates of 2+ inches/hour within some
of these storms. Otherwise, tonight`s lows should be roughly 4 to 8
degrees above climatology thanks to mostly cloudy skies and a humid
airmass. With light to calm winds expected thru the morning, patchy
fog and low stratus will likely develop across the area overnight.
The fog should dissipate by mid to late morning but the low stratus
will probably linger thru late morning before lifting by the early
afternoon tomorrow. This should help keep highs a few degrees below
climatology tomorrow, but it will be humid thanks to dewpts remaining
in the 70s across our lower terrain. Another round of sct convection
will develop tomorrow afternoon and likely linger well into tomorrow
night. A few strong to severe storms will be possible on Friday with
damaging wind gusts being the main hazard with any severe storms that
develop. In addition, the potential for heavy downpours may produce
localized flash flooding, especially over areas where storms train.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

The overall expectations regarding an unsettled weekend have not
changed with the latest guidance and forecast.  Guidance remains
in good agreement that an upper low will propagate east into
the Ohio Valley and enhance forcing across the mountains on
Saturday afternoon.  Compared to yesterday, models have trended
more unstable, with increasing likelihood that SBCAPE will
approach 1200-1500 J/kg over the mountains.  However, there is
a general consensus that an inversion will develop within the
750-850mb layer underneath the shortwave ridge centered over the
central Carolinas, as WAA appears to increase layer temperatures.
This is why QPF response over the Piedmont is quite unimpressive,
despite deep-layer southerly to southwesterly flow/moisture
advection that continues to support PWs in the 1.8-2.0" range.
As is often the case, PWs are only part of the equation...we also
need enough forcing/instability to realize or squeeze out the
moisture present through out the column.  Therefore, given a lack
of forcing underneath the transient ridge, it looks like any heavy
rainfall and isolated flash-flood threat may be largely confined to
the foothills and mountains if this inversion cannot be overcome.
Unidirectional bulk shear values may approach 25 kts over the
mountains, which could support some organized convection and a
few strong thunderstorms, capable of producing wet microbursts.
Given the abundant cloud cover and lowering thicknesses behind
the shortwave ridge and in advance of the approaching trough,
highs will likely be near to slightly below normal, with the
warmest maxes closer to the ridge axis over the central NC Piedmont.

Model guidance disagrees on the strength of the deamplifying
shortwave trough as is approaches the forecast area for Sunday,
but its proximity will generally support a similar forecast
compared to Saturday.  Forecast profiles continue to suggest a
weak 750-850mb inversion across the Piedmont.  This is plausible
given the consensus that the shortwave reflection will lift largely
north of the area, keeping the level in a warm southwesterly flow.
Max temperatures may actually be a degree or two cooler than
Saturday given the lowering thicknesses and cloud cover overhead.
However, like Saturday, the airmass is going to feel quite tropical,
with dewpoints in the lower 70s east of the Escarpment and near
70 in the mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday:

The shortwave trough that pestered the area over the weekend
will likely push off to the east during the day on Monday, being
fully absorbed by the westerlies to our north.  Thicknesses will
increase a bit during the day and winds aloft are expected
to turn more westerly behind the trough.  These changes to the
pattern should support a slight uptick in temperatures on Monday,
peaking a couple degrees above normal, with little improvement
in our tropical humidity.  Typically, overall convective coverage
would be on the decline in this pattern, but yet another shortwave
trough will be digging into the middle Mississippi River Valley
at the same time. This is causing some of the guidance to develop
another round of widespread shower and storm activity over the
mountains and as such our PoPs remain similar to Sunday.  However,
confidence in coverage becomes murky given the competing factors
at play and it`s even less clear there will be any notable strong
thunderstorm or heavy rainfall threat.

The shortwave trough quickly deamplifies and largely lifts north of
the forecast area as the subtropical ridge gradually strengthens and
expands to the north and west through the work week.  This supports
a gradual decline in diurnal PoPs to likely across the mountains
and chance over the Piedmont each day Tuesday through Thursday,
as max temperatures gradually increase each day.  Any showers or
storms that do develop each afternoon do not appear to pose any
notable threats given the overall lack of large-scale support, but
the typical summertime strong thunderstorm and heavy rain threat
can never be ruled out in this environment.  The westerly flow more
or less disconnects us from the best moisture flux, allowing drier
air to return to the mid-levels.  This would support an uptick
in the damaging wind threat if an isolated updraft or two grow
strong enough.  Expect high temperatures to reach 90 by Tuesday
east of the mountains and rise into the lower 90s by the end of
the period on Thursday.  Daytime mixing should start to become a
factor later in the week which would help to knock dewpoints down
a bit during peak heating.  However, dewpoints in the upper 60s
to near 70 may help to push heat indices into the upper 90s to
near 100 across favored Piedmont locations and the Charlotte metro.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Sct showers and thunderstorms continue to
develop across our fcst area this evening. Most of our terminals
could be impacted by the convection over the next few hrs, so I
kept a TEMPO for TSRA at KCLT, KGSP, KGMU, and KAND until 03z and
VCSH for any lingering showers going into the overnight. KAVL and
KHKY appear less likely to be impacted, so I have VCTS for the next
few hrs for those sites. Most of the latest guidance still has some
patchy fog (IFR to MVFR) and low stratus (IFR) developing overnight
into Friday morning, so I kept the restrictions at all taf sites
during that time. Expect another round of sct convection Fri aftn/
evening with PROB30s for TSRA beginning in the 18 to 20z timeframe
for all our taf sites. Winds should go light to calm later tonight.
They will pick back up from the S to SSW Friday aftn with speeds
generally between 4 and 8 kts.

Outlook: Mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected each
afternoon/evening thru early next week. There will be potential for
late night and early morning fog and low stratus restrictions each
day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...JPT