Dentsville, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

426
FXUS62 KCAE 131757
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
157 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon before a
meso low/MCV possibly brings another batch tonight and increased
rain chances Thursday. An upper level ridge over the southeast
states on Friday will shift west of the region over the weekend
and persist into next week. Lower rain chances are expected with
near normal temperatures over the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon.

- Another batch of showers and isolated storms could be
  possible tonight.

Upper ridging continues to build in today as GOES derived
PWAT`s and the SPC Mesoanalysis PWAT`s are below 2" for the
first time in a while across the FA. Enough low level moisture
exists for the development of scattered cumulus but little
convective activity is noted at the moment as temperatures climb
into the upper 80s to low 90s. Continuing through the remainder
of the afternoon and into this evening, isolated to scattered
showers/storms will be possible with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg ,
but the overall heavy rain risk is a bit lower with the more
limited coverage and lower overall moisture.

The interesting feature remains the evolution of a meso low/MCV
and shortwave currently positioned over SE AL. As recent CAMs
and the 12z HREF have come in, most have this feature bringing
at least isolated showers and possibly some storms across the
CSRA and into the Midlands between 05-09z, possibly earlier.
While organized convection is not anticipated, forecast
soundings do depict at least some elevated instability and
PWAT`s are expected to nudge up closer to, or exceed, 2" as the
low nears. With ongoing river flooding concerns, and very
saturated conditions north of I-20, the main concern will be
locally heavy rainfall that could contribute further to already
high river/stream levels and lead to the quick onset of flash
flooding in these saturated areas. Looking at the HREF LPMM
through Thursday morning, it depicts very localized spots of
1-2" from this activity and this seems reasonable with the
quicker moving nature of these showers/storms. Due to the heavy
rain threat, WPC has expanded its Day 1 Slight Risk (level 2 out
of 4) for excessive rainfall to cover part of the northern FA
through Thursday morning. This low/MCV is expected to continue
to move into the CWA through Thursday morning, possibly aiding
in keeping some showers going.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms will locally heavy rainfall
possible on Thursday.

- Warmer on Friday with lower rain chances as upper ridging builds
overhead.

A passing short wave will erode the northwest periphery of an upper
level ridge, and it along with an associated meso-low will produce
noctural convection that will be ongoing at the start of the period.
The latest CAMs all support this convection shifting northeast
across the area during the morning and early afternoon hours, before
lifting into the Pee Dee later in the day. Some weak NVA in wake of
this convective complex could result in drier conditions for part of
the afternoon before more diurnally driven convection develops to
the northwest. Instability initially looks weak, but should increase
toward the Pee Dee in the afternoon and cannot rule out a few
stronger storms. High precipitable water values up to 2.25 to 2.5
inches will result in some heavy rainfall, and localized flash
flooding is a possibility. Temperatures will be a bit cooler given
the convection and associated cloud cover.

The region will be located along the northern periphery of an upper
level ridge on Friday. Some weak short wave energy could pass aloft
to the north, but despite continued high precipitable water values,
convection appears to be mainly scattered in coverage and diurnally
driven.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Generally drier conditions, with mainly isolated diurnal
convection through the period.

-Temperatures near normal into next week.

An upper level ridge will retrograde to the west on Saturday, with
much of the guidance showing a front potentially dropping south of
the area. This should usher in some drier air for the weekend and
potentially beyond. Ensembles show the ridge remaining anchored to
the west and blended guidance favors mainly isolated showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Temperatures appear to be near
normal through much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions this afternoon and evening outside of any brief
shower/storm associated restrictions. Possible batch of showers
and storms tonight and MVFR to IFR ceilings.

Scattered cumulus are developing this afternoon with winds
between 5- 8 kts from the southwest as all TAF sites are
witnessing VFR conditions. Little activity in terms of
showers/storms are noted at the moment but some more agitated
cumulus are expected to lead to isolated to scattered showers
and storms in the coming hours and into this evening. Confidence
in any one TAF site seeing impacts from this activity is low
and thus I have only left mention of VCSH at this time. Heading
into tonight, a meso low/MCV could drive another batch of
showers and storms that first move into the CSRA and then into
the Midlands. Recent model guidance continues to suggest this
activity forming and thus I have added a PROB30 group tonight
and into early Thursday morning at the Augusta and Columbia
terminals where the greatest chance for possible restrictions
from this activity is expected. Outside of this, guidance is not
overly aggressive with stratus tonight and early Thursday, but
with increasing moisture due to the meso low/MCV and possible
rain overnight, think at least MVFR ceilings will be seen into
early Thursday before slowly lifting through the morning after
14z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...More typical summertime conditions
return with afternoon convection and possible periods of stratus
in the morning each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$