Conway, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

940
FXUS62 KILM 150558
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1258 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will strengthen east of Cape Hatteras today then
move farther offshore tonight into Saturday. Dry weather
returns today with low clouds eventually dissipating. Dry and
cool high pressure will settle across the area this weekend
before sliding off the coast early next week. Temperatures
near normal this weekend will climb back above normal next
week. A cold front may bring rain chances to the area late Wed
or Thu.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes to the previous forecast. Most of the rain has
pushed offshore with cooler and drier air moving in from the
west. However, low clouds and possibly some sprinkles will
linger into at least the first part of Friday as mid- level
energy continues to move through, especially in NC.

Otherwise, cancelled the Coastal Flood Advisory for the lower
Cape Fear River a bit early and raised another one for the late
night/early Friday high tide for there as well as the rest of
the coast. Also, the Gale Warning for north of Cape Fear to
Surf City on Friday still appears to be marginal but will let
later shifts re- examine the need to continue it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Warm front/coastal trough has stalled just inland of Cape Fear
and will struggle to move much farther inland. The wedge will
keep the front close to the coast, setting up a large
temperature gradient this afternoon as the warm air moves over
the coastal counties. Increasing moisture, especially in the low
levels this afternoon coupled with isentropic lift will lead to
expanding showers/rain across the region. Some elevated
convection is also possible as the low at the triple point moves
toward the area. The dynamics associated with the low and its
mid-level trough, isentropic lift and divergence aloft all
suggest a period of 6 hours or so where brief periods of
moderate to heavy rain will be possible. Total rainfall from
this afternoon through late evening will be on the order of
0.50" with some locally higher amounts. Much of that rain will
fall between now and mid-evening at which point the low will
move off the coast and deep dry air spreads in from the west.

Surface low and deep moisture that lead to rain Thu/Thu night
will be offshore Fri morning with deep, dry air spreading over
the region. The low will strengthen east of Cape Hatteras Fri,
tightening the gradient which will crank up wind speeds. Some of
the forecast soundings are showing 30-40kt at the top of the
mixed layer, which would imply potential for gusts around 40
mph. Not ready to go quite that high on gusts as the strength
and position of the low as well as how quickly skies clear will
all have an impact on wind speeds and the depth of the mixed
layer. Although deep dry air moves in lingering low level
moisture will keep afternoon humidity above 35%. Temperatures
will end up near climo Fri afternoon, despite the strong
northerly flow. There is not a lot of cold air with the system
and there is no connection to any Canadian airmass

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The potent mid/upper low will be far off the NC coast Friday
night with height rises expected Saturday as ridging aloft
becomes established from the Great Lakes Region into the Gulf
coast. The deepening NWly flow will allow for a very dry column
through the short term period. Meanwhile at the surface - the
intense oceanic low will move eastward and farther away from the
NC coast as cool surface high settles across the Eastern United
States. Overall, expect clear skies with near normal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather will carry into the first part of the extended as
surface high pressure becomes aligned from the Great Lakes
region into the Carolinas and with ridging aloft. Temperatures
will gradually warm into the first part of the upcoming week as
high pressure modifies and shifts away. Better return flow
becomes established by mid-week ahead of the next front. Will
maintain PoPs Wed into Thu, and a lot hinges on the amount of
any tropical-ish air advecting far enough north from the
northeast Gulf of Mexico. GEFS QPF is limited at this time with
the likely higher amounts crossing Florida and remaining farther
off the Southeast United Stated.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR to dominate across all terminals generally between 06Z and
13z. As subsidence and drier air work their way across the
area, look for ceiling improvements across FLO/CRE/MYR by 16Z
and 19Z for LBT/ILM with VFR dominating. Will see gusty NW to N
winds in the wake of the deepening low off Cape Hatteras, that
will pull further away from the Carolinas thru tonight. Winds
will drop below 10 kt by sunset today and aob 5 kt late this
evening.

Extended Outlook...VFR to dominate through the period as high
pressure settles across the area this weekend, sliding offshore
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Treacherous marine conditions currently
developing with Small Craft thresholds likely to be exceeded in
the next few hours. Low pressure will drag a cold front across
the waters later this evening with the low deepening east of the
Outer Banks. The strength of the low still warrants a Gale
Warning north of Cape Fear for Friday. It is possible the east
end of AMZ252 experiences an hour or 2 of Gale Warning winds,
but with the limited coverage and duration think the SCA will
suffice. The strong north-northwest winds will have a somewhat
limited fetch for much of the waters, but still with prolonged
20-30kt winds and gusts 30-40kt seas will exceed 6 ft away from
shore with potential for 7 ft seas north and east of Frying Pan
Shoals. Seas will be very chaotic with a mix of wind wave
ranging from east to northwest and a longer period swell from
the east- southeast gradually becoming east-northeast.

Friday night through Tuesday...Offshore flow will weaken
during Friday night as the intense area of low pressure moves
farther offshore. Winds will decrease further during Saturday as
high pressure settles across the Eastern United States and
adjacent coastal waters. Excellent boating conditions are
expected Sunday with high pressure overhead, and somewhat Monday
into Tuesday as the high pushes south of the waters resulting
in generally light offshore flow. Seas will be greatest Friday
night into early Saturday with a higher range of seas given
offshore flow and some backswell expected. Seas will improve
further improve during the remainder of the period given the
aforementioned light winds/weak pressure gradient with high
pressure overhead and just south of the waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The full moon accompanied with high astronomical tides will
help support minor coastal flooding through the next few days.
The morning high tide will be the main coastal flood time. In
addition, the lower Cape Fear River from Wilmington south, will
also observe a threat for minor coastal flooding during both
high tide cycles of each day through Saturday. The highest
water levels (close to moderate) are expected with high tide
late Saturday morning.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EST this morning for
     NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM this morning to noon EST
     today for NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM EST this morning for
     SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ250.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 2 PM EST this afternoon
     for AMZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DCH
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...III/SRP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...III