Conway, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

626
FXUS62 KILM 250113
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
913 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion has been updated with the 00Z TAF issuance.

Moderate rip current risk for Pender/New Hanover/Horry(Myrtle
Beach Southward)/Georgetown County Beaches. Was borderline for
Horry County Beaches until NWPS illustrated the SE 8 second
period swell and a southerly short period wave meeting up and
funneling into southern Horry County during Sat aftn.

Some tweaks to the various wx elements this evening into
daylight Sat morning based on latest radar trends, satellite
imagery and model trends.

The Flood Watch remains in tact through 8 PM Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Very high precipitable water and a nearly stationary front,
coupled with mid-level impulses will continue to support the
potential for heavy rainfall through Saturday.

2) Some drying is expected during Sunday, but there will be
some mainly diurnally driven shower/t-storm chances Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...Very high precipitable water and a nearly
stationary front, coupled with mid-level impulses will continue
to support the potential for heavy rainfall through Saturday.

Deep moisture will remain in place across the forecast area
through Saturday. In fact, a swath of very high precipitable
water (>2.3 inches) will be focused along the front and across
the forecast area. The nearly stationary boundary as of this
afternoon was positioned near/along a Surf City to ILM and CKI
line. The front and its associated differential heating coupled
with the seabreeze has supported scattered storms so far this
afternoon. As the impulse moves away from the coast expect a
lull then additional upstream mid- level impulses will help
initiate subsequent rounds of storms overnight into Saturday.
Timing these impulses - along with any diurnal and differential
heating influences will make it tricky. While rainfall has been
lackluster so far today the probabilistic QPF shown for areas
mainly east of I-95 show a most likely outcome of 1-3 inches
with potential higher end scenarios of 2-4". Where any
significant storms occur could easily see isolated/localized
higher amounts of 4-6" and some flash flooding. Could see
slightly better H3 divergence Saturday and with the front
lingering along with the high precipitable water it could be an
active day if things come together. The current plan is to
extend the Flood Watch through 8 PM Saturday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...Some drying is expected during Sunday, but
there will be some mainly diurnally driven shower/t-storm
chances Monday and Tuesday.

Time-height cross sections show the column beginning to dry
some late Saturday night into Sunday as deeper NWly flow begins
to dominate. Moisture will be limited above H7, and expect a
return to more diurnal convection Monday into Tuesday with
lesser areal extent compared to what we have been experiencing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will primarily
affect the area tonight and will likely be covered with PROB30
groups. Shower/tstorm coverage increases during the overnight,
primarily across southeast NC and the coast, toward daybreak
Sat. After daybreak Sat, looking at the immediate coast firing
up convective-wise, thru Sat morning. Will include TEMPO and
PROB30 groups to illustrate with prevailing light showers.
High res models indicate the coastal terminals to experience the
brunt of the convection with the inland terminals on the
"lighter" side of the activity. However, the inland terminals
may observe the IFR stratus being they will be on the "cool"
side of the front as it slowly snakes south and east ward.
Winds generally NE-NW around 5 kt or less across the inland
terminals. And for the coastal terminals S-NW 4 to 9 kt. For
winds, in lieu of going variable in direction, will identify a
"best" wind direction.

Extended Forecast...Potential for MVFR/IFR due to tstorms/showers
Sat evening. The column does begin to dry some later Sat night
into Sunday so less pcpn coverage by that time. Could see some
fog restrictions Sun morning. VFR conditions to dominate there-
after with periodic flight restrictions from diurnal convection
Monday-Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Friday through Wednesday...A nearly stationary front and rounds of
storms will create havoc with wind direction/speed. Scattered
showers/thunderstorms expected across the coastal waters this
afternoon, should increase in coverage overnight into Saturday and
expand into the offshore waters. Overall, outside of any convection
expect seas to be 3 ft or less through much of the period. SWly
winds will prevail south of the front and away from any storms
through Saturday. The flow will veer around to a Nly direction late
Saturday night into Sunday with the old front finally south of the
area. Typical SWly flow will return to the waters Monday and persist
through Wednesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
SC...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for SCZ024-032-033-039-
     054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...DCH
KEY MESSAGES...SRP
DISCUSSION...SRP
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SRP