Conway, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

739
FXUS62 KILM 262333
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
733 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot high pressure will continue this heat wave well through
next week. A cold front may arrive by late Thursday or Friday
with better chances of thunderstorms and more seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Convection across the Cape Fear area is beginning to wind down
now that convective overturning has stabilized the boundary
layer. Outflow boundaries are still heading southwestward toward
the SC state line where hot temperatures continue, but the
boundary may not be deep enough to boost new parcels to their
LFC. Trends are for dry weather to develop by 9 PM with
decreasing clouds and light west to southwest winds overnight.

I considered adding a little patchy fog where rain fell today,
however the airmass is so warm (1000 foot free-air temps
remaining 85-88 F overnight) it`s doubtful we`ll have much depth
of saturation even given clearing skies and light winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unseasonably hot and humid weather continues with plenty of
sunshine and only light winds. This is courteous of a strong
ridge aloft over the Southeast persisting through Sunday.
Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for this weekend (and has
been extended through Monday). Low temps tonight in the upper
70s/near 80 will provide little relief to the heat. Highs Sunday
will again be near, or exceed, 100F (away from immediate
coast), aided by westerly low level downslope flow. Elevated
dewpoints in the 70s will produce heat indices of 110-113F for
Sunday afternoon and an extreme HeatRisk.

As far as precipitation goes, the dry air aloft and subsidence
associated with the strong ridge will hinder shower production.
Piedmont trough, pinned sea breeze, and high dewpoints could
still produce a few scattered showers this afternoon and again
Sunday (if lift can break through the cap), but coverage and
duration of any showers is expected to be limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An Extreme Heat Warning will remain in effect through Monday
evening due to heat indices reaching ~110-115 degrees. Dry
weather will continue through Sunday night with some uncertainty
into Monday afternoon due to convection. Interrogating the CAMs
that go out that far, it looks like the main area for
showers/storms will be isolated to scattered convection with the
sea breeze. However, there does appear to be some support from
aloft that will make its way around the ridge. This would work
to increase coverage of showers/storms, but the spotty nature of
it makes me feel like we`ll see little in the ways of relief
from the heat. Activity should overall decrease through Monday
evening with mostly dry conditions away from the coast Monday
night, the lingering showers making it slightly cooler than
Sunday night. Lows in the upper 70s/lower 80s Sunday night and
mid/upper 70s Monday night. Highs nearing 100 for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The ridge will start to break down through the long term period
with several more small scale disturbances posed to move
through aloft. Into midweek, a Midwestern storm system will
begin to push towards the area with the ridge further breaking
down as areas of low pressure cut into it. With the increased
support aloft increasing rain chances, Heat Advisories (105F
heat index) may return through late week. Towards the end of the
week the system should bring a cold front to us with a trough
aloft, with the probability of seeing 90 degree highs dropping
significantly into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The last of today`s afternoon thunderstorms should decay by 01z
over the coastal waters east of KCRE and KMYR. An outflow
boundary visible on radar imagery may make it through the KCRE
airport around 01z with a shift to NE surface winds expected.
Convective debris mid and high clouds may hang around for a few
hours afterward but VFR conditions appear likely to continue
through the night and into Sunday. Heat will build again Sunday
afternoon and scattered thunderstorms should again develop
across coastal North Carolina possibly impacting the KILM
airport after 19z where I`ve included a PROB30 group for TSRA.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR, with brief restrictions
possible in scattered thunderstorms mainly with the sea breeze
front and Piedmont trough inland. Increasing coverage of
showers/storms is expected Thursday with an approaching cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday...Benign marine conditions continue with Bermuda
high pressure offshore and Piedmont trough inland. Winds
generally out of the southwest around 10 kts. Seas around 2 ft
prevail through Sunday, combination of SE swell and S wind wave.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Benign marine conditions with SW
winds becoming a bit more southerly with the afternoon sea breeze.
Speeds generally AOB 10 kts increasing to around 15 kts late
Thursday with the approach of a frontal system. Seas 1-2 ft with a
ESE 1 ft swell at 8-9 seconds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107.
SC...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...VAO/LEW