Columbia, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

374
FXUS62 KCAE 120047
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
847 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening,
as a weak frontal boundary remains stalled across the area. The
region will then begin to transition to a more summerlike pattern
late in the week, with less organized and more typical pulse storms.
This pattern will persist into the weekend and through the first
half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

- Waning convection through the evening gives way to quiet
  conditions and some low clouds/fog later tonight

We are officially approaching the 7 straight days with
convection mark as another day of widespread showers and storms
transpired. These were primarily across the southern half of the
area along and east of a prominent moisture and instability
gradient that set up along the I20 corridor. These thunderstorms
are quickly waning in coverage and intensity as the sun begins
shining on the other side of the globe and the moon rises here.
Passing clouds are expected tonight but the threat of low clouds
is expected to increase after 3a or 4a. There may be some patchy
fog as well, especially given the low level moisture that is
hanging around. Lows should be in the upper 60s to around 70
most places tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A Bermuda high will remain anchored off the Southeast Coast.
Southerly return flow around this ridge will keep us in a summer-
like pattern with seasonably hot and humid conditions as well as
diurnally-driven showers and storms.

A weak shortwave disturbance that can currently be seen on WV sat
imagery over the FL panhandle will lift northeastward around the
northwestern periphery of the ridge. This feature along with a
stalled frontal boundary over the GA-SC piedmont may enhanced
convective potential during the afternoon and evening on Thursday,
especially along and north/west of the I-20 corridor. Farther south
and east toward the coastal plain, coverage of showers and storms
looks to be more isolated since lift will have to be primarily
reliant on localized boundaries such as the sea-breeze (and even
that may not be well defined with a strong enough gradient winds out
of the south) and where convective inhibition underneath the ridge
will be present. PoPs from the NBM were blended with the 12Z CAMs to
highlight the greater coverage the farther north and west you go.

Sided closely with NBM for Friday, yielding likely chances for
showers and storms area wide during the afternoon and evening.
Although the stalled front may be entirely washed out by Friday, the
inland-propogating seabreeze and perhaps another subtle shortwave
trough rotating northward around the backside of the ridge will
provide a focus for the convection.

Forecast high temperatures (upper 80s to around 90F) and peak heat
indices (95-100F) are similar for both Thursday and Friday.
Interestingly, the NBM probabilities show the greatest forecast
spread out of the next week is on Thursday, but this is likely due
to CAM members and the potential for convection during peak
afternoon heating to prevent forecast highs from being realized.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The typical summer-time pattern continues through the long-term
period thanks to the offshore ridge that will extend westward into
the Gulf Coast states. The heat isn`t expected to be unusual with
forecast high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s actually
right at climo for mid June. However, combined with the humidity -
dewpoints in the mid 70s to occasionally upper 70s - will produce
heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s each afternoon this
weekend. A slight uptick in heat indices are forecast for the first
half of the work week with peak heat indices in the 103-106F range
for the Midlands and CSRA. If the forecast trends any higher, then
the first Heat Advisory of the year would need to be considered.

The pattern will also remain unsettled with diurnally-driven showers
and storms. There is a potential for enhanced coverage of convection
if/when shortwave disturbances track atop the ridge and move into
the area during peak heating. At this point in time, it`s difficult
to time this.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are noted everywhere right now, with IFR and
LIFR restrictions possible by 09z at all sites.

Convection from earlier has begun to wane across the forecast
area. Debris cloudiness is noted across the area but in general
things are quieting down aviation wise. Guidance is much more
aggressive with restrictions developing later on tonight as
clearing develops behind the waning convection. HRRR, LAMP, and
CONShort are all developing widespread stratus/fog after 09z,
persisting through the mid morning hours. It won`t be strongly
forced by subsidence or anything so it shouldn`t persist beyond
15z. However, given the amount of rain we have received over
the last week or so, I think the LIFR forecasts by guidance are
not far off from what will actually occur. The forecast becomes
classic summer thereafter, with cumulus and scattered
showers/storms developing tomorrow afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief flight restrictions are
possible each day with typical summertime thunderstorms
throughout this week and into the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...