Columbia, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

223
FXUS62 KCAE 101915
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
315 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Overcast skies will give way to a mix of sun and clouds from
west to east this afternoon. A few showers or thunderstorms will
be possible later this afternoon and into the evening hours as a
weak frontal boundary moves through the area. The region will
then begin to transition to a more summerlike pattern, with less
organized and more typical pulse convection through the
remainder of the week and into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Overcast skies clear from west to east giving way to partial
  sunshine.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move in
  from the west in the wake of these clouds later this
  afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms may become strong
  to severe.

Afternoon satellite imagery shows the thick clouds that plagued
the FA today are finally clearing out from west to east, giving
way to scattered cumulus. Temperatures should warm up quickly
once partial clearing begins, but opted to lower maximum
temperatures down into the mid-80s to account for the persistent
cloud cover thus far today. The environment behind the
cloudiness remains favorable for convective development as seen
over Northern Georgia and parts of the Upstate and CAPE values
are increasing into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range as shown in the
SPC Mesoanalysis. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase
during the next few hours, but they are not expected to reach
the same level of severity we have seen over the last few days.
Having said that, the SPC maintains a Marginal (1/5) risk for
severe weather today with damaging wind gusts as the primary
hazard. Given the recent bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall,
flash flooding will also be a concern and the WPC also has a
Marginal (1/4) risk for Excessive Rainfall. Convection should
diminish with the loss of daytime heating, with any lingering
activity departing the CWA before daybreak. Temperatures tonight
fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered afternoon convection

Wednesday: A weak cold front will remain stalled across the forecast
area Wednesday providing focus for convective initiation. In the
upper levels of the atmosphere, a mid-level wave will be exiting the
coast with some weak ageostrophic convergence overhead, but taking a
look at forecast soundings reveals the atmosphere still
destabilizing southeast of the front. Given this, have kept chance
PoPs in the forecast mainly south and east of Augusta and Columbia.
Temperatures will remain seasonably warm near 90 degrees.

Thursday: The stationary front will lift north during the day with a
more summertime/ diurnal driven pattern returning to the region. Mid-
level heights begin to rise to near 590 dam as ridging builds in,
but instability remains across the region. As such, more widespread
convection is forecast Thursday. Expect high temperatures again near
90 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Typical summertime pattern will continue with afternoon showers
and thunderstorms

An upper level ridge will remain positioned over the western
Atlantic, with the western periphery extending into the southeastern
states. A similar pattern will exist at the surface, with high
pressure extending into the region from the east. Moisture will
remain prevalent across the region, with model soundings showing
PWAT values approaching 2.0". With a lack of significant upper level
forcing showers and thunderstorms will likely be diurnally driven,
mainly focused along outflow boundaries and the inland progressing
sea breeze. Overall the severe threat remains low, however a strong
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Both high and low temperatures
will remain near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR Conditions Return This Afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms
Possible at all Terminals Later Today....

Afternoon satellite imagery shows the low ceilings that plagued
the FA today are finally clearing out from west to east, giving
way to scattered cumulus. A TEMPO for MVFR ceilings continues
for another hour at CAE/CUB/OGB as conditions improve at those
locations. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase during
the next few hours so a PROB30 for thunderstorms was added to
all TAF sites with this update. Any thunderstorms that develop
should diminish with the loss of daytime heating and come to an
end late this evening. Beyond this, guidance suggests a return
to the low ceilings towards daybreak but it is unclear if this
will be stratus, fog, or a mix of both. The weaker low-level
jet towards daybreak could support areas of fog so added both
to a TEMPO at all terminals. Any low ceilings should improve
after daybreak, giving way to scattered cumulus by the end of
the current TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Brief flight restrictions are
possible each day with typical summertime thunderstorms
throughout the week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$