Berea, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

596
FXUS62 KGSP 150555
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1255 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and a warming trend are expected Friday through Tuesday.
Rain may return to the area for Wednesday and Thursday with mild
temperatures Wednesday and near normal temperatures Thursday..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1240 AM EST Friday: The cold front appears to be east of the
fcst area at this time, with a NW flow aloft taking hold and making
an attempt to mix out the residual low stratus cloud deck east of
the mtns, with varying degrees of success. Some of the cloudiness
is likely to hang on to around daybreak, especially where weak
low level convergence was helping to maintain it over parts of the
western Upstate and northeast GA. Won`t rule out patchy dense fog,
altho the vis has improved over the past few hours.

Dry air and CAA should scour out any morning stratus and fog by
late morning. Then a stratocu field will likely form within some
wrap-around moisture associated with low pressure off the Outer
Banks. A few NW flow upslope showers may linger into the aftn near
the TN border, but otherwise, Friday looks dry. Temps will rebound
nicely, with highs mainly in the mid 60s east of the mountains,
near to slightly above normal. But will be near to slightly below
normal with breezy conditions in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Thu: Ridging surface and aloft will build over the area
through the period. Any lingering NW flow rain showers will end by
Friday evening with dry conditions remaining in place through the
rest of the period. NW flow clouds will linger in the usual
locations across the mountains before dissipating by early Saturday.
Gusty winds continue across the area, with the strongest winds
across the mountains, Friday night and dissipate through the morning
Saturday. With rising heights and thicknesses, along with mainly
clear skies, a warming trend takes place through the period as well.
Lows will be near normal Friday and Saturday nights. Highs range
from near to 5 degrees above normal Saturday rising to 5 to 10
degrees above normal Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thu: A short wave tops the ridge Sunday night but the
associated cold front never makes it this far south as the ridge
rebuilds through Tuesday. The ridge axis moves eastward Wednesday
and Thursday as a deep upper low develops over the central CONUS.
The GFS moves the low into the OH Valley by Thursday with short
waves rotating around the low and across our area. The ECMWF is a
little slower and not as far east but does bring short waves into
the area by Thursday. Despite the slower upper feature movement of
the ECMWF, it is more aggressive bringing in moisture on southerly
flow ahead of the associated cold/occluded front. The GFS is slower
less aggressive, but it has some precip for Wednesday and both do
for Thursday. Both of these and the Canadian agree that any remnant
low from Sara will remain to our south, and any significantly deep
tropical moisture. The GFS and the Canadian bring in significantly
colder air for Thursday but the ECMWF holds it off until Friday.
Given the uncertainty, leaned heavily on the model blend. This means
a dry forecast until late Tuesday with chance of slight chance PoP
through Thursday. Highs will remain nearly steady 5 to 10 degrees
above normal until Thursday then the fall to near normal. Lows rise
steadily to 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Still a mess across the area as WNW
downslope flow was still working on the edges of a residual low
stratus deck. This should keep KHKY in the clear, but will vex
the Upstate terminals and KCLT for a good bit of the pre-dawn
hours with IFR/LIFR restrictions. The guidance is encouraging,
with the downslope improving around the start of operations this
morning, resulting in a quick change to MVFR and VFR as the mixed
out area expands over metro Charlotte. This might not be the case
at KAND, where weak low level convergence may act to hold in the
LIFR restriction until after sunrise. Either way, improvement will
take place everywhere by mid-morning and we should be VFR from
that point onward outside the mtns. Wind should be generally NW
to N. Should be gusty at KAVL after sunrise with the deeper mixing
and channeled flow.

Outlook: High pressure brings dry and VFR conditions back Friday
into early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...PM