Aiken, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

134
FXUS62 KCAE 021833
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
233 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore. This may bring a few showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm mainly across the northern and
western CWA this afternoon and evening. A major warmup begins
Thursday with near record temperatures expected through Sunday.
The next storm system impacts our area Sunday into Monday as a
cold front moves into the area, followed by much cooler
temperatures next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Warming trend beginning today with isolated showers and a
  possible thunderstorm possible during the late afternoon into
  the evening, mainly in western spots.

Surface analysis shows a warm front just south the CWA from NW
GA into the far southern corner of SC along the coast as upper
ridging continues to build into the FA. Low stratus has mixed
out as winds have increased, but we keep some low to mid level
clouds into the rest of the afternoon. Winds continue to move
out of the SE to SSE this afternoon, gusting to around 20 mph
and aiding in increasing moisture with fairly strong isentropic
lift into the western part of the CWA with PWAT`s that reach
upwards of 1.4-1.6" by early this evening. High res guidance
continues to show isolated to at most scattered showers and
possible thunderstorms developing along this warm front as it
lifts toward the upstate mainly after 3-5pm where enhanced
surface convergence looks to set up along the front. Recent HRRR
Bufkit soundings show up to 1600-2100 J/kg of CAPE setting up
as dewpoints rise into the mid to upper 60s and temperatures
reach into the low to mid 80s across the CSRA into the central
Midlands and into the mid to upper 70s across the northern
spots. Deep layer shear remains fairly weak (around 20-30 kts)
and with fairly weak forcing, organized convection is not
expected. However, with moderate instability, strong isentropic
lift, and a lifting weak warm front into the late afternoon and
into the evening, an isolated thunderstorm will be possible,
mainly in the western FA where the strongest lift is and into
the northern Midlands. With moderate DCAPE values in place and
nearly dry adiabatic low level lapse rates, some stronger gusts
could mix down with any more robust updraft that forms.
Lingering cloud cover though may aid in limiting
destabilization, as recent HRRR runs have decreased in overall
shower/storm coverage.

This activity wraps up this evening but lingering low level
moisture brings another night with low stratus likely developing
despite increasing 850 mb flow to around 25-35 kts and thus
increased surface winds. Cloud cover will keep overnight lows
toward the mid to upper 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Steady warmup begins.
- Near record highs Friday.

Throughout Thursday, low level southerly component flow and
warm advection will strengthen over the area. Heights will
consequently build as the broad 500mb flow pattern aloft
amplifies as a series of troughs dig into the SE CONUS. As a
result, well above average temps are expected across the
forecast area as highs climb into mid to upper 80s, despite
widespread cloud cover especially in the morning. Isentropic
lift is fairly weak within the warm advection regime, but enough
upslope flow will likely produce some showers in the Upstate.
During peak heating, some of these showers could sneak into the
western Midlands but latest guidance keeps most areas dry. With
subsidence inversion stronger, removed pops from the western
Midlands.

Friday and Friday night...Upper ridge centered offshore
strengthens a bit and heights aloft rise. Subsidence appears
stronger than Thursday and moisture remains confined to the
low-levels around 850mb. There may be a few isolated showers
around the periphery of the ridge but mainly west of the
Midlands. ECMWF EFI indicates temperatures well above normal. So
went with temperatures above the NBM means, near record highs.
Overnight lows above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Highly anomalous warmth expected with near record high temps
  through Sunday.

There has not been much change in the overall thinking
through the weekend with the long term period dominated by deep
mid- upper level ridging and an extremely strong offshore
surface high. These will yield near or exceeding record high
temps across much of the area starting Thursday and lasting
through Sunday; the timing of when the next front actually
clears the area next week is still uncertain. The ECMWF and its
ensembles continues to be slower than the GFS/GEFS. The NBM pops
remain high through Monday. Regardless, high temps well into
the 80`s or low 90`s are expected during this window, with a
remarkable signal in the EC EFI and NAEFS for anomalous max and
min temps. EC EFI shows consistent 0.9+ with SoT of over 1.0 for
both max and min temps. NAEFS shows near record 500mb heights
off the Atlantic coast with near the 99th percentile heights and
temps through Saturday night. So overall, guidance is flagging
this period as one of the more anomalous temp patterns we have
seen in awhile.

The upper ridge breaks down Sunday into Monday as the upper low
out west moves toward the southern Plains. Given the deep
moisture available ahead of the front, there is some severe
potential but lots to figure out regarding the synoptic forcing
and shear; SPC has a small area of the CSRA in a Day 5 outlook
(Sunday).The ECMWF is slower/less progressive/less amplitude
with northern stream trough than GEFS. CMC ensemble appears
slower too. So front may hang up in the area and qpf could be
higher but in general the guidance indicates 1-1.5 inches
possible. A notable cool-down into the extended range after the
frontal passage. Near-below average temperatures throughout
next week as the deep troughing slowly digs into the eastern
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions at most sites with some lingering MVFR ceilings
into the rest of the afternoon. MVFR to IFR ceilings return
tonight with another stratus deck likely.

Most restrictions have come to an end across the region but
some scattered to broken low level clouds around 2,500 to 3,000
ft are still being seen north of OGB mainly as southeast winds
have picked up to 8-12 kts with gusts toward 20 kts being seen.
A scattered to broken cumulus deck is also being seen pushing
inland from the coast but these are looking to keep around 3,500
to 5,000 ft and thus no restrictions are expected. As moisture
continues to move in some isolated showers or a thunderstorm are
still possible after 20-22z mainly but coverage and chances
continue to be too limited to add mention into the TAF at this
time. Heading into tonight, 25-35 kts of flow at 850mb should
allow winds to remain elevated overnight but despite this,
guidance continues to show another stratus deck developing
mainly after 5-7z with MVFR to IFR ceiling restrictions expected
into Thursday morning but visibility restrictions seem less
likely with this due to the increased winds. Conditions then
improve through the morning.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Another day with the threat of
early morning restrictions continues on Friday with continued
low level moisture in place. Precipitation remains unlikely
through Saturday before the next rain chance moves in Sunday.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$