Scranton, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

261
FXUS61 KBGM 292351
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
751 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Partly cloudy conditions will prevail through tonight and into
Friday before another low pressure system with rain moves up
the east coast Friday night and Saturday. High pressure then
builds into the region early next week bringing much warmer
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
745 PM Update...

A quiet night is expected with variable cloudiness as the area
remains beneath a flat ridge aloft and between weather systems
into early tomorrow afternoon. Remainder of forecast appears on
track per 18Z guidance with very few changes made only to
diminish shower activity quicker this evening.

215 PM Update...

The region is between low pressure systems today with some
breaks in the clouds and a few isolated showers in NY. These pop
up showers will increase in coverage through the rest of the
afternoon with some additional heating but most of the region
will remain dry. A trough digs into the Great Lakes region
tonight into tomorrow though some low level ridging will help
suppress shower activity through at least mid day tomorrow.

A strengthening surface low will develop and move up the Mid
Atlantic coast Friday afternoon into Friday Night. Recent trends
have shifted the low track a little farther to the east which
will mean that the heavier rain associated with it will be
mainly the Catskills and east. Rainfall rates will be steady but
light so there is little risk of any flash flooding or flood
risk overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For Saturday, large amplitude upper level trough covers the eastern
U.S with a surface low tracking northeast through eastern New
England. This feature will bring a widespread rain and showers to
much of central NY/northeast PA but will be winding down in the
afternoon as the surface low tracks well northeast of our area. NBM
has a good handle on this and reflects the variability of the models
this far out.

For Saturday Night, strong and chilly northwest flow and wrap around
moisture enhanced by Lake Ontario will keep cool unsettled and
showery conditions over our area. Models differ in extent and
timing of showers but we don`t expect anything significant.
Hence we will stick with NBM.

For Sunday, continued chilly northwest low-level flow will still
bring chances for some showers on Sunday. It will be quite
chilly for the 1st of June with highs in the upper 50s to mid
60s or so. Temperatures in the morning will start off in the
40s.

For Sunday night, surface high pressure ridge builds in late with
clearing skies and diminishing winds. This will lead to low
temperatures from the high 30s into the 40s. Looking at NBM at
this time there is less than a 5% chance of getting cold enough
for widespread frost. However, some of our deeper valleys in the
central southern tier could get clearing quick enough for some
potential for frost. We will keep an eye on in future shifts.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For Monday and Tuesday, upper level ridge builds across the
eastern U.S. with more sunshine, southerly flow and much warmer
temperatures. For Wednesday, medium range models suggest
another upper level low under the upper level ridge, mainly off
the east coast. The GFS is quickest with the next system and
breaking down the eastern upper ridge. Hence GFS has QPF by
Wednesday evening. The other deterministic models have
precipitation in the form of showers and a few storms mainly
Thursday. Given how far out it is, used NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR ceilings will persist through the period. MVFR is likely to
develop overnight and primarily affect the terminals along and
east of I-81 with the highest confidence occurring at KRME-KBGM
and KAVP. Any restrictive stratus mixes out Friday morning with
variable VFR ceilings into the afternoon. Showers work into KAVP
late in the day with lower confidence for KELM and KBGM to be
addressed with later updates.

Winds generally from the West under 5 KTS tonight and 5-10 KTS
on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday night...Restrictions with rain,
breezy.

Sunday...Low pressure leaving with lowering chances of showers
and restrictions.

Monday into Tuesday...Mostly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG/JAB
NEAR TERM...AJG/JAB
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...AJG/JAB