Ross, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

446
FXUS61 KPBZ 141312
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
912 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Near-normal temperatures continue early week with occasional
flash flood and precipitation chances. A flash flood watch is in
effect for the I-80 corridor today through the afternoon.
Temperatures warm up towards the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Morning and early afternoon flash flooding threats will be
  confined to the I-80 corridor in a flood watch, while
  afternoon chances may be more confined to Pittsburgh and
  south.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Surface convergence north of the stationary boundary will
continue as the aforementioned mid-level wave moves up to and
north of Pittsburgh, allowing for rain chances with perhaps a
rumble of thunder through the morning. While HREF maximum rain
rates tend to show a bit lower with this round, approximately
0.5 to 1 in/hr with slightly less instability, coverage may be a
bit more widespread, PWATS will be slightly higher (on the
order of 1.7" to 1.8" (1.78" on the 12Z sounding) or >90th
percentile of climatology. There is at least some training
potential along the boundary as evidenced by morning
observations and radar. This will support a marginal threat of
excessive rainfall conditional on training. This has prompted
the issuance of a flash flood watch through 4pm today for the
I-80 corridor.

How this morning round shapes up may affect how an afternoon
round of storms sets up. Cloud cover and morning rain may keep
temperatures a tad bit cooler and the environment more stable to
the north, but south of Pittsburgh, the airmass may be
uncontaminated with perhaps a fractionally lower low-cloud
fraction. This might be more supportive of thunderstorms with
higher rain rates in near-daily-maximum PWAT air in the
afternoon (1.75 to 1.85). With better surface heating in this
environment, one might expect flash flooding potential
unconditional of training yet again in the afternoon with and
more intense updrafts in efficient warm rain processes through a
deep, saturated column in weak flow. Some CAMs hint at the
highest storm coverage along the east-west axis intersecting
Pittsburgh or just north on a modest thermal gradient. While
coverage and intensity may decrease after sunset, flash flooding
could not be ruled out in training yet again.

All in all, cloud cover, rain chances, and deep saturation
should keep daytime highs slightly cooler than Friday, and lows
around 5 to 10 degrees above average yet again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Continued storm chances with flash flooding potential continue
  Sunday and Monday.
----------------------------------------------------------------

By Sunday, the mid-level disturbance and corresponding surface
low will approach the upper Ohio Valley, along for a continued
saturated environment (with PWATS near the 90th percentile),
warm rain processes, and mostly-diurnal storm chances in weak
flow. WPC has increased the flood risk some, particularly for
northern West Virginia (slight risk of excessive rainfall) in
the area where there is currently the highest confidence in the
best moisture and forcing as the low drags east and storm
motion may be a bit slower on the northern fringes of the weak
low. HREF max 1hr precipitation rates are the highest we have
seen seen thus far, up to 2" to 3" an hour in very localized
spots. This threat maximizes between 12pm and 8pm.

Monday chances will depend more the trough departure timing.
Should the trough pull off faster (American, Euro ensembles; 65%
of membership), flooding chances will be lower. Should the
trough be slower (Canadian ensembles; 35% of membership), flood
chances may linger, more confined to northern West Virginia
again on the northwest side of the low.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A mid-week warmup will be followed by increasing late-week
  severe potential.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

By Tuesday and Wednesday, there is some indication of a return
to quasi-zonal flow to even weak ridging, with 80% membership in
clustering suggesting heights between 583dm and 586dm and NBM
highs back into the mid to upper 80s, there is increased
confidence similar heat lingers into at least Thursday at this
point with most ensemble spread encompassed in the 80s.

Beyond that, into Friday and beyond, there is some indication
of troughing with both timing and intensity uncertainty. Though,
in the last 24 hours this has trended slower and weaker,
keeping much of the late week temperature spread in the low to
mid 80s, providing some, but not dramatic relief. We will also
be keeping an eye on severe potential in the transition from
heat to weak troughing, with CIPS and CSU machine learning
showing increasing probabilities into Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Light to moderate rain showers and IFR/LIFR restrictions are
ongoing for areas north of I-70 this morning, while farther
south there is no rain and a mix of MVFR/VFR to start the TAF
period. This trend continues through at least mid morning, after
which ceilings should see some minor improvement to MVFR across
much of the area except FKL/DUJ where IFR will linger awhile
longer as a steady band of rain drifting generally west to east
takes its time exiting the area.

Breaks of sun (especially around and south of PIT) during late
morning and afternoon will facilitate deeper mixing. Given the
lack of a thermal capping inversion, even modest heating should
be sufficient to invigorate more robust updrafts by early
afternoon, with tstms possible for a few hours south of I-80.
Although prevailing conditions will favor MVFR during this time,
drastic drops in vsby are possible (30-40% probability) within
the very heavy rain of afternoon storms, as are occasional
breaks to VFR in between bursts of rain/storms.

Deep convection tapers towards sunset with the loss of daytime
heating, though scattered light showers linger through tonight
as cigs/vsbys drop back down to IFR or worse after 03-06z.

Outlook...
Restriction potential with rain will continue into early next
week with little change in pattern as a series of disturbances
crosses the area.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ008-009-015-
     016.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...Milcarek
SHORT TERM...Milcarek
LONG TERM...Milcarek
AVIATION...Cermak/Rackley