Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

111
FXUS61 KPBZ 231749
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1249 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain and drizzle continue across the region this
afternoon. Dry weather prevails on Christmas Eve. A system
returns rain overnight into early Christmas Day, especially
south. Another storm on Friday brings a wintry mix north and
east of Pittsburgh with rain south of the city. Temperatures
remain above to well above average through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Light rain and drizzle to continue into the evening
- Dry conditions return overnight
- Above normal temperatures
-----------------------------------------------------------

A passing upper shortwave and weakening warm front continue to
spur precipitation across the region. Temperatures have risen
above freezing region wide and any lingering frozen
precipitation has wound down.

Still, light rain and drizzle continue across much of the
region. Forecast soundings support ample low-level saturation
continuing drizzly conditions into the evening hours, lasting
longest in the ridges. Areas outside of the ridges may not see
any more measurable QPF in areas of lingering drizzle. Along the
ridges another 0.10 inches of rain could fall.

Light southerly flow today encourages weak WAA and high
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s region wide (around 10
degrees above average). Drier air works in this evening in the
wake of a weak cold frontal passage as high pressure builds
across the Great Lakes. Behind the front, winds turn NWerly but
ample cloud coverage helps keep low 5-10 degrees above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and cloudy Wednesday with slightly cooler, but above normal
  temperatures
- Showers on Christmas Day morning with above normal temperatures
----------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday will still feature a good bit of mid-level jet induced
upper level cloud coverage with and, despite rising heights and weak
850 mb warm advection, slightly cooler temperatures owing to veering
northwest flow in the wake of the FROPA. It`ll otherwise be dry with
plenty of subsidence and dry near-surface air under high pressure.
Lows on Christmas Eve are likely to be above normal under the
increased cloud coverage and light southerly flow.

We remain in a deep layer northwest flow setup for Christmas Day as
the first in a series of weak wave slides through the Ohio Valley.
Its surface reflection will be cyclogenesis across IL/IN with the
low quickly diving through our area in the morning hours. How far
north the warm front can reach, and thus how warm area locales get
on Christmas, is still in question as ensembles attempt to resolve
subtle differences in the mid-level height field. An
optimistically warmer solution with a farther north warm front
suggests near 50 reaching as far north as Pittsburgh while a
colder solution sits in the low 40s. Precip-wise, most will see
rain with light south to southeast flow out ahead of the system
proving lackluster for cold air intrusion. The exception could
be north of Pittsburgh where, if there`s enough forcing and
moisture dependent on warm front positioning, some patchy
freezing rain is possible. 925-850 mb temperatures will be
solidly above freezing areawide, so not seeing much of a threat
for a snow mix, and will have to monitor surface temperatures
for precip type impacts. Amounts will be light for most with the
fast moving nature as the chance of >0.1" ranges from 40- 80%
from Pittsburgh and south, highest south of I-70, and >0.25"
around 40% in northern WV.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- More widespread precip on Friday with a wintry mix possible
- Another system on Sunday followed by some lake effect snow
  potential early next week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensembles then suggest another, slightly deeper, wave following the
same track on Friday and another surface low traversing the region.
A longer period of northerly component flow ahead of the low
may allow for colder air to be better entrenched ahead of it and
open the door for more wintry precip types. Right now, this
remains a tricky forecast that will be highly dependent on the
track of the surface low and, similar to Thursday, how far north
the warm front reaches. NBM MaxT for Friday shows a sharp
contour in spread basically suggesting the boundary could be as
far south as a line from Canton to Cadiz to Uniontown or as far
north as Mercer to Kittanning to Indiana. Guidance still waffles
on precip onset time, and there are roughly three areas to
watch with this system:

1) US-422 and north, as well as into the PA ridges: This is
where the highest confidence currently lies for wintry precip
types including snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Even warmer
solutions still keep the surface warm front south of this
general area, and persistent ESE surface flow does not bode well
for warm advection to kick surface temps up above freezing. NBM
often warms too quickly in these setups, so once the 850 mb
warm nose overtakes the area, the threat for a longer period of
freezing rain and/or sleet could come into play. Especially if
precip onset time is a bit earlier, we could see a brief period
of wet snow as the sub-cloud layer wet-bulbs, though there`s
some doubt that we`d even have enough moisture to allow snow to
reach the ground in that scenario. Current probability for
measurable ice is rather high at 70%+. We will continue to
monitor this area for potential impactful ice. Eventually,
surface flow is progged to flip more S to SW which would promote
stronger warm advection and cessation to freezing rain.

2) US-422 to I-70 (including Pittsburgh metro): This is where the
least confidence lies in surface temperatures owing to much
uncertainty in warm front placement and timing. Should it reach
farther north quicker and allow for above freezing surface temps to
filter in early, there would be very minimal threat for ice and
rather just rain. Should the colder and slower southern placement
verify, there may be a period of freezing rain/sleet at onset before
warm air does eventually overtake and transition to plain rain.
There may also be a brief period of wet snow at precip onset,
largely dependent on earlier arrival timing, but with a quick
transition to rain/freezing rain as the 850 mb warm layer should be
safely through the area in the morning hours. NBM MaxT spread
suggests highs could be in the low 50s or the mid to upper 30s
at PIT further illustrating that uncertain frontal placement.
In short, a conditional ice threat exists in this region and
warm front placement will be a significant determining factor
before a changeover to plain rain.

3) I-70 and south: This region should be safely in the warm sector,
even in a colder solution, and see the upper 50s to even low 60s for
highs with plain rain. Some elevated thunderstorms are even possible
with steep lapse rates atop the warm advection driven inversion as
NBM prob thunder highlights an elevated area in far SW PA and
northern WV.

A series of continuing shortwaves will provide periodic
precipitation chances into the weekend with the next system on
Sunday whose current track suggests less winter precip locally, but
uncertainty in positioning still exists. We may see a transition to
some lake effect snow come the beginning of next week in a deeper
northwest flow pattern in the wake of the low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Restrictions in rain and drizzle continue into the evening
- Drizzle winds down tonight
- General scattering expected Wednesday
------------------------------------------------------------

Light rain and drizzle continue across the region at this time.
IFR/LIFR conditions continue at most ports with patches of 1/4SM
fog being observed. Continued low level moisture keeps drizzle
likely into the evening hours before drier air begins to work
in. Some CIG improvement is expected prior to 00z but IFR looks
likely through the overnight period at most ports.

Restrictions last through 12z before skies begin to slowly
scatter out. Moisture trapped beneath the subsidence inversion
will be stubborn and a SCT to BKN stratocu field in the
1.5-2.5kft range seems possible Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...
VFR is expected to return by Wednesday afternoon under high
pressure. Low pressure returns restriction and rain potential
for Thursday. Another low will maintain restrictions and rain
Friday, with a wintry mix possible for FKL and DUJ. VFR is
expected Saturday under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...MLB
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...AK