Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

994
FXUS61 KPBZ 130815
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
415 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions continue with periodic showers and
thunderstorms through middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and storms return today
- Marginal risk of excessive rain

---------------------------------------------------------------

A stalled front across the region should be the focus of
convection today. A renewed push of southerly flow will pump
PWAT values around 1.5 or higher, at least 90th percentile or
better for this time of year. Cloud coverage should somewhat
mitigate diurnal destabilization, but there still will be
MUCAPE around the 400-800 J/kg range.


This coupled with low MBE velocities, and warm cloud depths
ranging from 11-12kft points towards a locally heavy rainfall
and flash flooding threat today, and WPC has maintained the
Marginal Risk previously in place. Any shower/storm coverage
should increase this afternoon as convective temperatures are
met. Exact placement is difficult as it is in most summertime
situations, but overall should be focused around the quasi-
stationary boundary previously mentioned.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Thunderstorm chances with heavy rainfall continues Saturday.
- Temperatures will dip closer to normal but still humid with
  warm overnight lows.
----------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday looks to be a similar setup to today though with a
potentially higher flood threat with slightly higher PWATS and
potential "primed" areas from rainfall that may be observed
today. MUCAPE remains marginal, but all of the ingredients
remain for slow moving, efficient warm rain process convection.
WPC has maintained the Marginal Risk for excessive rain for
Saturday as well.

Given the cloud cover and higher precipitation probability,
temperatures will dip closer to normal over the weekend but still
remain quite humid with dew points in the upper 60s and little
relief at night with lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Precipitation chances continue into next week.
- Temperatures favored to climb above seasonal normals.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

By Sunday, surface low pressure is favored to develop across the
Ohio Valley as an upper wave approaches. This will begin to push the
stalled boundary to the east but precipitation chances still
continue as it slides by. Latest clustered ensemble runs have
trended deeper and slightly slower with the upper wave
progression, and in this scenario, Sunday may see continued
flooding and low severe threats. If a faster scenario (lower
probability) takes hold, both of those threats would lower and
temperatures would be cooler.

Temperatures are favored to rise again throughout the week and
eventually end up back above normal, but daily rain chances continue
with passing waves of low pressure. Uncertainty grows by mid-week
with spread in MaxTs around 5-8 degrees. The pattern looks to remain
active with machine learning guidance pointing toward low end severe
chances through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
General VFR is expected through this evening with light wind,
though restrictions will be possible this afternoon with showers
and thunderstorms. Probability for iso/sct convection increases
after around 18z, but coverage will likely be spotty. Continued
to carry PROB30 groups for most sites during the afternoon
timeframe to account for this. Afternoon storms will be fairly
disorganized, but will carry downburst potential.

Widespread rainfall with embedded thunderstorms becomes more
likely closer to 00z, continuing into the overnight. Thunder
probs will gradually ease through the night. Ceiling swill begin
to lower after 00z, with widespread IFR likely by 09z Saturday.
Wind remains light through the period.

Outlook...
Restriction potential with rain will continue through the
weekend and into early next week with little change in pattern
as a series of disturbances cross the area.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...Rackley