Milwaukie, Oregon 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

749
FXUS66 KPQR 101101
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
401 AM PDT Sun May 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will maintain dry and warm conditions
through early next week. A weak shortwave trough will bring
increased cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow.
Temperatures rebound on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure re-
builds. Precipitation chances return on Wednesday as a trough
approaches the West Coast. Another trough from the Gulf of
Alaska will maintain precipitation chances and a trend toward
cooler temperatures by the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday...Satellite imagery shows
a weak shortwave trough slowly moving into the region today.
This shortwave will slightly brush the Pacific Northwest and
bringing mid to high level clouds across the CWA. While we will
likely see no precipitation with this shortwave, we will get a
brief reprieve from the warmer daytime highs thanks in part to
widespread cloud cover an relatively cooler onshore flow. So,
while we will remain dry, said cloud cover and onshore flow will
drop daytime highs towards the upper 50s to mid 60s along the
coast and in the Cascade. Interior valley locations are expected
to see daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Looking towards Monday and Tuesday, there has minimal changes
in model ensemble guidance. Said guidance is showing a return
of high pressure over the Pac NW, which will bring a return of
clear skies, warm daytime highs for Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures return to the 70s to near 80s by Monday from the
coast to the Cascades, with the warmest temperatures expected
within the interior valleys. Looking at Tuesday, models are
still showing this as the hottest day of the week. Current
guidance is showing highs in the low to upper 70s along the
coast, mid 70s to low 80s for the Cascades and low to upper 80s
for the interior valleys.

Looking towards the middle part of next week, 500 mb WPC
clusters show at least some weak troughing or a weak low moving
over the northwestern coast of CONUS shown via lowering 500 mb
heights. This continues to support at least some cooling off,
think highs in the 70s rather than the 80s, for the middle of
the week and continuing through the end of the week.

The next chances for precipitation return on Wednesday as the
aforementioned trough approaches the West Coast. The majority,
approx 70%, of ensemble members show this trough tracking south
of our area, either toward the California/Oregon border or
further south into California. As a result, chances for
precipitation are currently 15-25% west of the Cascades and
25-40% across the Cascades. In addition, southerly flow from
this pattern would bring increased instability and thus a 15-25%
chance for thunderstorms for the Willamette Valley and across
the Cascades. The other scenario depicted by 25% of ensemble
members has the trough swinging directly through the Pacific
Northwest; in this case, we would see increased moisture and
chances for precipitation.

Continuing to look at the WPC 500 mb clusters, show a more
significant pattern change for Thursday and Friday. However,
while the Grand Ensemble does favor more troughing over the Pac
NW, approx 30% of ensemble members are favoring a ridge of high
pressure returning to western CONUS. Overall, am maintaining
the cooling trend for the latte part of the week, but as for
precipitation chances and timing, that remains uncertain. /42

&&

.AVIATION...Southwest flow aloft with northerly flow at the
surface will continue as upper level ridge slowly moves eastward
as a weak shortwave trough moves across the airspace. Said
shortwave trough will keep scattered to broken high clouds
streaming across the region. Predominately VFR conditions expected
for inland locations, while the coast will experience MVFR/IFR
conditions as marine stratus remains anchored to the coast through
the majority of the TAF period. There is around a 15-20% chance
for LIFR conditions along the coast through 20Z Sunday as well as
a 10-20% chance for a brief period of VFR along the coast from 21Z
Sunday through 03Z Monday.

For the Willamette Valley from KSLE southward, models are hinting
at lower stratus along the Cascade foothills that may backbuild
to KSLE and KEUG from 12Z-22Z Sunday. However, probs for MVFR
remain around a 15-25%. Overall, expect MVFR to IFR conditions
along the coast with predominately VFR conditions inland through
the TAF period. Winds generally out of the north/northwest below
10 kt.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with high clouds streaming across the
area with light northwest winds increasing in the afternoon. /42

&&

.MARINE...North/northwest winds across all waters will continue
through the majority of today as a weak trough quickly moves
across all waters. Overall, expect winds of 6 to 10 kt with gusts
up to 20 kt along the coast. The highest winds are expected in
zones PZZ253 and PZZ273 with less than a 10% chance of isolated
gusts up 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft at 10 to 12 seconds.

Monday, weak high pressure returns across all waters which will
maintain northerly winds across all waters. As high pressure
briefly builds, northerly winds will increase resulting in gusts
up to 25 kt for zones PZZ252, PZZ272, PZZ253 and PZZ273. Thus,
have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the zones starting Monday
afternoon through at least Monday night. Seas will also build
towards 5 to 7 ft on Monday in response to the increasing winds.
Looking towards Tuesday through at least Thursday conditions
return to a more benign pattern with north to west winds, with
gusts below 20 kt and seas 5 to 7 ft. Towards, Friday a slightly
more active pattern looks favorable as a low drops out of the Gulf
of Alaska towards the region. /42

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ252-
     253-272-273.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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