Medford, Oregon 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

170
FXUS66 KMFR 221149
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
349 AM PST Mon Dec 22 2025

.DISCUSSION...Light showers linger over coastal areas, the
Cascades, and Modoc County early this morning. Inland activity
should decrease through the day, while light showers may continue
along the coast. Breezy winds continue over east side terrain, but
are safely out of hazardous ranges. Overall, today offers a short
break before activity is expected to resume in the middle of the
week.

An upper trough remaining in place over the Pacific Ocean will keep
southerly or southwesterly flow aloft. This flow looks to guide a
pair of surface lows towards the area. The first low will bring
showers to Siskiyou and Modoc counties on Tuesday morning with more
widespread activity continuing into Wednesday morning. The highest
precipitation amounts are forecast to be in the Shasta Valley region
(Dunsmuir, Mount Shasta City, Weed, McCloud) where 2 to 4 inches of
precipitation is expected in this timeframe. Other parts of Siskiyou
county as well as Coos and Curry counties could see 1 to 2 inches of
precipitation. Initial Tuesday morning snow levels of 4000-5000 feet
may allow for light snow showers of parts of Highways 89 and 97. In
western Siskiyou County, Sawyers Bar Road west of Etna could get 2
to 6 inches of snowfall. Cascades passes could also see 2 to 6
inches of snowfall. For these areas, the rise in snow levels may
turn snow to rain or rain/snow mixes. This shift may bring locally
slippery conditions. Terrain in Siskiyou County could see 6 to 12
inches of snowfall, with 18 to 24 inches possible over higher peaks
and ridgelines.

For this first surface low, gusty winds will also be a consideration
over terrain especially east of the Cascades and in the Shasta
Valley. Gusts of 45 to 55 mph are in the forecast for these areas.
A High Wind Watch covers a generalized area where these high winds
are possible, with additional guidance likely to narrow down areas
where High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories will be needed.

A second surface low would affect the area from late Wednesday into
early Friday. The path of this system has varied in guidance, making
high confidence in its impacts difficult to find, but a general
picture is building. With southerly flow continuing, western
Siskiyou County and the Mount Shasta region as well as Curry County
and the Cascades would remain areas of concern. Current guidance
does not show the same wind concerns as the first system, but a
forecast drop in snow levels late Thursday into early Friday could
make snowfall on Interstate 5 between Weed and Dunsmuir, along
Highway 89, Sawyers Bar Road west of Etna, and through the Cascades
a concern. Given the holiday, this is obviously an important period.
As confidence grows in the path of this second surface low, expected
impacts can be fully addressed.

Considering hydrologic concerns, river rises are expected but a
current absence of snowpack is helping to reduce immediate river
flooding concerns. Continuing precipitation over western Siskiyou
COunty may case rock slides in areas with unstable surface
conditions. And localized small stream floods or nuisance ponding in
areas with poor drainage will be possible in areas with moderate to
heavy precipitation.

Long-term deterministic imagery shows the upper trough breaking down
late Friday, with a weak ridge allowing for a break in activity
through the weekend and into early next week. Meteogram guidance
indicates activity resuming towards midweek of late December into
early January, but the signals are relatively scattered and coarse
at this point. -TAD


&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z TAFs...Scattered showers continue over areas
west of the Cascades as well as over Modoc County. Showers should
continue to decrease over inland areas through the day, but light
showers may continue over coastal areas. Fog has brought IFR/LIFR
visibilities Medford terminal and will stick around through the
early morning but should clear out before the afternoon. VFR
levels are expected across the area today, with weak signals for
fog in the Umpqua Valley and possibly returning to the Rogue
Valley later tonight into early Tuesday morning. -TAD


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Sunday, December 21, 2025...Gusty
southerly winds are building steep seas in waters north of
Brookings through this morning. In the afternoon, winds increase
and build very steep and hazardous seas in all waters at and north
of Port Orford and in outer waters south of Port Orford. Local
areas of gale gusts are possible in waters north of Cape Blanco.
Winds ease late Monday into Tuesday, but fresh swell looks to keep
steep seas in all waters through Tuesday night.

Current guidance keeps below advisory seas in the forecast
through Wednesday, with an impactful system building steep to very
steep and hazardous seas with a combination of gusty southerly
winds and southerly swell. The details of this system continue to
shift in guidance, making a high confidence forecast difficult at
this time. Some amount of unsettled seas is expected for Thursday
and Friday, so please check back for future updates.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for ORZ029>031.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
     ORZ027-028.

CA...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     CAZ080-082>085.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for CAZ081-084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this
     morning for PZZ350-370.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
     Tuesday for PZZ350-370.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this
     evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$

TAD/TAD/TAD