Keizer, Oregon 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

503
FXUS66 KPQR 222247
AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
247 PM PST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled and progressive weather pattern remains in place
across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as multiple
disturbances continue rotating inland from the Pacific. Periods
of rain at lower elevations and snow in the Cascades will
persist through midweek. Increasing attention is focused on the
potential for a significant wind event on Wednesday, as ensemble
guidance continues to converge on a solution. Details remain
uncertain as the signal for impactful winds has increased and
decreased for various ensembles. Conditions may gradually trend
quieter late in the week into the weekend as ridging attempts to
build over the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Now through Sunday...
Broad upper-level troughing over the northeastern Pacific
continues to steer a steady stream of shortwave disturbances
into the Pacific Northwest, maintaining an active weather
regime. Through the remainder of today and into the evening,
another organized disturbance and accompanying frontal boundary
will move inland. This will result in renewed shower coverage
and strengthening southerly winds, particularly along the coast
and exposed terrain.

Coastal headlands and beaches remain favored for stronger wind
gusts, generally in the 35 to 45 mph range, with isolated higher
gusts possible. Inland valleys will see breezy conditions (gusts
around 25 mph, with isolated gusts up to 30 mph), remaining
below advisory thresholds for most locations. Given recently
saturated soils, even moderate wind gusts may be sufficient to
produce isolated tree damage or sporadic power outages. Winds
are expected to ease later tonight as the disturbance shifts
east.

By Tuesday, short-term ridging should temporarily suppress
shower coverage. Precipitation will become increasingly terrain-
focused, favoring the coast, Coast Range, and Cascades, while
much of the interior lowlands experience a relative lull in
activity. This break will be brief, but it may provide several
hours of drier conditions across the Willamette Valley.

Forecast confidence decreases notably beginning Wednesday as
the larger-scale pattern becomes more amplified and complex.
Guidance depicts the parent trough evolving into a closed low
while dropping southward, allowing additional shortwave energy
to rotate northward toward the Pacific Northwest. This pattern
introduces a wide range of possible outcomes, particularly with
regard to wind impacts.

Ensemble guidance has pivoted with the most recent update, where
the EPS now has the meso-low tracking inland rather than along
the coast, resulting in a weak pressure gradient and less
impactful winds. However, the GEFS still suggests that this low
will track northward along the coast, which would allow for
stronger winds. Additionally, high-res model guidance (WRF and
NAMnest) still suggest the possibility for strong and impactful
winds. To give more detail on this scenario, winds will
initially come out of the east (due to the pressure gradient
from the low on the coast) and then shift southerly to
southwesterly as the low tracks north. The window for potential
damaging winds (45 to 65+ mph) remains between 6 AM to 2 PM
Wednesday across most of western Oregon and southwest
Washington, including the I-5 corridor (most locations will only
observe peak wind gusts for 1-2 hours). Such winds would likely
result in widespread tree damage and power outages.

While this remains a lower-probability outcome relative to the
full ensemble envelope, the increasing consistency within
higher-resolution and select ensemble guidance warrants close
monitoring. Should upcoming model runs continue to trend in this
direction, wind-related headlines may become necessary.

Beyond midweek, ensemble guidance generally favors a gradual
eastward progression of the amplified trough, allowing shower
activity to continue at times, especially near the coast and
higher terrain. Toward late week and into the weekend, a
majority of solutions suggest at least a temporary period of
ridging, which could bring a short-lived stretch of drier and
calmer weather. Confidence in the duration and strength of this
break remains moderate at best, but it represents the most
likely window for improving conditions in the extended forecast.
~12

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Past heavy rain continues to drain into slower responding
rivers, resulting in continued minor river flooding for the
Pudding River at Aurora. Expect the Pudding River at Aurora to
fall below flood stage by late tonight into Tuesday morning. The
latest river forecasts across the region can be found at:
www.water.noaa.gov/wfo/pqr. Please be sure to never drive
through a flooded road and heed any remaining road closure.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions are a mix of MVFR to VFR across the region
with widely isolated showers. Winds increased as a front came into
the area with mostly gusts in the 20-30 kt range, a few 30-40kts
along the coast. Winds will drop be 10 kt from 02-05z Tuesday.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions primarily expected through
the rest of the daylight hours with MVFR cigs the remainder of the
TAF period. Some returning light showers in the area after 00z
through Tuesday. -91

&&

.MARINE...A robust frontal system will continue to push across all
the waters today. This will bring breezy southwesterly winds
across all waters through this evening. Current Bouy obs are
showing gusts up to 40 kt with seas of 10-12 ft at 8 to 10
seconds. As a result, will maintain the current Gale Warning out
across all waters including the Columbia River Bar. Tonight, winds
are expected to fall with gusts of 20 kt or less, seas will remain
in the 10-12 ft range. Therefore, have issued a Small Craft
Advisory starting this evening through Tuesday night as seas are
expected to remain elevated even after the winds have subsided.


Marine conditions briefly settle down Tuesday to Wednesday, but a
low pressure system moving northwards from California looks to
bring elevated winds and seas across all waters. The current
forecast has southerly gusts up to 45 kt across all waters and the
Columbia River Bar. Seas are also expected to build towards 11-14
ft. As a result have issued a Gale Watch starting late Tuesday
night. It should be noted, that there is a lot of uncertainty as
to the track and overall strength of this incoming low. So, please
keep an eye on the forecast as it could easily change over the
next 72 hours. /42

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ210-251>253-
     271>273.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Tuesday
     for PZZ210-251>253-271>273.

     Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon
     for PZZ210-251>253-271>273.
&&

$$

www.weather.gov/portland

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