Tulsa, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

520
FXUS64 KTSA 130452
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1052 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 936 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Thunderstorms have recently developed from SW KS into the TX
Panhandle within the corridor of strongest warm moist advection.
The forecast is in line with the latest guidance with this
convection steadily increasing in coverage while spreading
eastward overnight and then on eastward across the forecast area
through the day Wednesday. Evening update will increase
thunderstorm coverage into tomorrow otherwise precip chances and
timing are on track. Mild overnight lows with increasing cloud
cover and sustained winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Surface high pressure moving into the region tomorrow night will
lead to decreased winds and clear skies. That combination along
with the drier air should lead to frost formation across parts of
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas early Thursday
morning. An advisory may be needed for a few counties if this
scenario still looks likely at this same time tomorrow. With
surface high pressure still having influence on the region
Thursday night/Friday morning, more of the area may be susceptible
to frost/freeze conditions given the closer proximity to the
center of the surface high. Through this same period, the daylight
hours will feature dry conditions and high temperatures that are a
few degrees above normal.

Winds will start to increase from the south early in the weekend
as surface high pressure finally moves far enough east of the area
to decrease its influence and another storm system approaches
from the west. Rain chances will increase mainly Sunday night and
into Monday as the system moves out of the southwest United
States/northern Mexico northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Some
minor timing differences exist regarding how quickly the
precipitation increase occurs, with low POPs on Sunday afternoon
in the NBM initialization appearing valid given this uncertainty.
The rain should end from west to east Monday night and into
Tuesday as the upper support shifts northeast of the area, but
another system will quickly follow on its heels mid week. The
evolution of this system is the one to watch, with a few model
solutions supporting some potential for winter weather mid to late
week. Plenty of uncertainty regarding that system`s evolution
continue to exist, but it bears watching.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms had recently developed across
N-Central OK late this evening ahead of an approaching storm
system. Expect shower and storm coverage will increase in this
area overnight then move east and impact E OK sites during the
early morning hours (most likely 09-15z). This activity will
continue to move east with potential impacts for NW AR sites
primarily between 14-18z. Cigs decrease from west to east during
the morning and afternoon hours, with medium potential for a
period of MVFR conditions across E OK & NW AR. Skies will tend to
clear late in the forecast period as a cold front pushes east. As
this occurs, sfc winds will also shift to WNW, gusting up to 20-25
kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  66  40  67 /  30  60   0   0
FSM   49  69  43  68 /   0  40   0   0
MLC   52  71  41  69 /  10  20   0   0
BVO   49  65  36  68 /  60  60   0   0
FYV   47  66  36  65 /   0  60   0   0
BYV   46  64  41  64 /   0  60   0   0
MKO   51  67  39  66 /  10  50   0   0
MIO   50  63  39  64 /  20  60   0   0
F10   52  68  40  68 /  20  50   0   0
HHW   50  73  42  69 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43