Tulsa, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

193
FXUS64 KTSA 221123
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
523 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 354 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

 - Warming trend continues today.

 - Mild weather this week with shower/thunderstorm chances mainly
   Monday night/Tuesday and again on Thursday.

  -Mild and dry conditions Christmas Day over much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 354 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

The warming trend will continue today, but south winds will be on
the increase, so it may still feel a bit chilly. With moisture
return being delayed, some fire weather concerns will exist across
mainly northeast Oklahoma today. Cloudiness across parts of
southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas early this morning is
expected to thin out after sunrise, with afternoon high
temperatures warming into the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 354 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Cloudiness will be on the increase tonight as moisture begins to
increase. The better surge of moisture will hold off until during
the day Monday, and clouds will thicken and lower as the day
progresses. A few light showers may develop Monday afternoon, and
there may even be a few patches of drizzle, especially across
parts of southeast Oklahoma late in the day.

More significant showers, and eventually isolated thunderstorms,
will hold off until later Monday night and Tuesday as the main
upper level storm system begins to affect the area. The system
looks slower to clear the area, so rain chances will continue in
parts of the area well into Tuesday night.

We will be between systems Christmas Day, so most areas will
remain dry, with temperatures remaining on the mild side.
Afternoon highs on Christmas Day will range from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

The next upper level storm system will affect the area possibly as
early as late Wednesday night, but more likely Thursday into
Thursday evening. The models continue to differ on the track of
this system, with the GFS much farther north than the ECMWF/UKMET.
Given the track record of these models, the southern solution is
likely most plausible, but regardless rain chances will be rather
high Thursday and have raised pops a bit above the NBM. A few
thunderstorms will be possible as well, especially across southern
parts of the forecast area.

Yet another upper level storm system may bring a few showers late
Friday into early Saturday, but moisture quality is questionable
behind the previous system, so stayed with the NBM pops for now.
Mild weather will continue through the entire forecast period,
with overnight lows being unseasonably mild with all the cloud
cover expected this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the forecast
period. SCT to BKN cloud layer around 5 kft will persist early
this morning for SE OK & NW AR sites, but is expected to dissipate
by afternoon. South sfc winds increase this afternoon and through
the evening... gusting to near 20 kts. Mid & low clouds are
expected to increase by late evening, with cigs falling to low VFR
category by the end of the forecast period. Additionally, LLWS is
expected primarily across NW AR sites after 06z tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  43  55  47 /   0   0  20  70
FSM   53  36  54  46 /   0   0  20  60
MLC   55  44  58  50 /   0   0  20  80
BVO   54  37  55  43 /   0   0  20  70
FYV   51  37  53  45 /   0   0  20  70
BYV   52  37  53  43 /   0   0  20  70
MKO   54  40  56  46 /   0   0  20  80
MIO   52  40  53  44 /   0   0  20  70
F10   55  42  58  47 /   0   0  20  80
HHW   54  41  58  50 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43