Tahlequah, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

419
FXUS64 KTSA 200452
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1052 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1051 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

 - Higher grassland fire weather conditions develop most
   afternoons in the next week, but especially for this
   afternoon.

 - Dry and mild conditions continue into the weekend. Much above
   normal temperatures likely next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1050 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Strong zonal flow is present across the CONUS with above normal
heights and temperatures across the southern Plains. A steep
pressure gradient is promoting strengthening southerly flow today,
with breezy winds expected by the afternoon hours. The mild, dry,
and breezy weather will promote some fire weather potential this
afternoon, with highs in the 50s. Winds will remain elevated
tonight with lows mainly in the 40s under mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1050 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Saturday will start warm given ongoing southerly winds, with
temperatures quickly climbing into the mid 60s. A dry cold front
will then move through during the afternoon and evening hours,
bringing somewhat cooler temperatures into Sunday, but still above
normal for this time of year. Low clouds Sunday across southeast
OK may keep temperatures down, so lowered below NBM guidance by a
few degrees.

Heading into next week an anomalous area of high pressure will
envelope much of the country, focused on the southern Plains. Mild
and humid (for this time of year) southerly flow will quickly
increase temperature and moisture levels. After reaching the 60s
Monday, widespread 70s to perhaps even low 80s are excepted Tuesday
through Friday. These are truly exceptional temperatures for this
time of year, upwards of 30 degrees above normal. Multiple
temperature records, both for record highs and record high lows
(warmest low on record for a day), are in jeopardy. Ensemble
guidance by many metrics show temperatures throughout the
atmosphere will be near or above climatological maxes for this
time of year. Any way you slice it, a very unusual pattern. The
most anomalous readings will be focused across eastern OK, some
low clouds at times across southeast OK and northwest AR may keep
temperatures down a few degrees from their potential. Warm
temperatures may persist beyond the day 7 forecast, but ensemble
guidance continues to hint at a cool down with a chance of rain
towards next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with sct-bkn high
clouds. South winds will remain gusty through most of the night
with strong LLWS, before a weak cold front moves southward
through the area Saturday with a shift to lighter west, then north
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  63  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   39  67  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   46  69  41  60 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   39  61  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  64  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   42  61  35  52 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   43  65  39  58 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   38  60  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
F10   45  67  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   43  69  48  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14