Tahlequah, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

953
FXUS64 KTSA 072339
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
639 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 635 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

 - Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms through tonight.
   Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main concerns.

 - Moderate flooding on Polecat Creek near Sapulpa through Sunday
   morning.

 - A few storms could become marginally severe Sunday afternoon
   and evening. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large
   hail, but tornado threat is non-zero.

 - Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines
   likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Expanding cluster of showers and thunderstorms currently moving
across far southeast OK with a few stronger embedded cells
displaying some rotation on the far edge of local area. This will
need to be watched over the next couple of hours as it further
expands east and north this afternoon in a region of stronger deep
layer flow closer to the base of upper level trough. With
increasing instability through the afternoon, storms with severe
potential should continue to develop into northwest AR and part of
northeast OK.

Heavy rainfall potential remains through today for much of the
local areas with PWAT near climatological max and persistent low
level moisture advection. Thus storms will be efficient rain
producers and produce locally excessive rainfall amounts through
this afternoon. Most of the above mentioned activity is forecast
to shift to the east by this evening.

A somewhat concerning signal has emerged in some of the latest CAM
data as instability continue to re-expand north this evening
beneath continued relatively strong flow at the base of the upper
trough as it slowly lifts northeast. Most CAMs show fairly robust
convection breaking out in a corridor across parts of northeast OK
and far northwest AR late this evening, and some potentially
lingering into early Monday morning. This will not only lead to
another round of severe potential, it will also continue the
flooding threat beyond 06z expiration of current watch. Thus have
expanded the watch til 18z Monday for a couple of counties in NW
AR along the MO border, and a few NE OK counties where the
strongest signal currently is shown. This may need to be expanded
farther south and/or west depending on later trends in data.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Aside from lingering shower and thunderstorm potential during the
morning, Monday will be a quieter day as the upper trough
continues to move away front he region and upper ridging begins
to expand over the Southern Plains. A period of hot and humid
weather will ensue for the first half of the week at least, with
heat headlines likely needed one or more days given the recent
rainfall and it`s potential impact on dew points. More unsettled
pattern with increased showers and thunderstorm potential is
expected to return for the later part of next week as upper ridge
weakens with the passage of a strong upper tough across the
Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this evening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop late this evening and overnight and
potentially impact the northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
Arkansas sites. This activity may linger into Monday morning at
the far northwest Arkansas sites. MVFR ceilings will develop at
all sites by late tonight and will persist Monday morning before
lifting to VFR Monday afternoon. South winds will gust to near or
above 20 knots at times during the day Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  90  77  91 /  50  10   0   0
FSM   73  91  76  93 /  40  10   0   0
MLC   75  90  77  91 /  20  10   0   0
BVO   71  90  75  91 /  70  20   0   0
FYV   71  86  75  88 /  60  30   0   0
BYV   70  86  73  89 /  60  40   0   0
MKO   72  88  75  89 /  50  10   0   0
MIO   70  88  75  90 /  90  60  10   0
F10   73  89  75  90 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   73  89  75  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for OKZ057-058-062-063.

     Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for OKZ055-056-059>061-064>071-
     073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ARZ001-002.

     Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for ARZ010-011-119-120-129-219-
     220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05