Stillwater, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

198
FXUS64 KOUN 130451
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1051 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1049 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

- Elevated showers & thunderstorms across most of our area
  overnight.

- Marginal risk for severe storms this evening across far western
  Oklahoma.

- Next chance for rain/storms on Sunday/Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 109 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Both a mid-level shortwave trough over eastern New Mexico and a
longwave through moving over the Colorado Plateau will move toward
the Plains tonight. There is some potential for showers to develop
early this evening in the western part of the forecast area with the
approach of the shortwave, but most of the shower and thunderstorm
development will occur ahead of the longwave trough that moves
toward the central and southern High Plains tonight. The forcing
will be the strongest across northern Oklahoma and the highest
precipitation chances will be associated with this. Surface based
instability will be limited as surface moisture axis is to the west
of the forecast area across west Texas and into the Texas panhandle.
Enough elevated instability does develop though that we could see
isolated strong to marginally severe storms in the west with hail
being the primary severe weather threat, but the potential looks
relatively low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 109 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

The showers and thunderstorms overnight may linger past sunrise in
the east, but should be exiting quickly. A cold front moving into
the area late tonight will move across the area on Wednesday
ushering in cooler air. Daytime highs will be roughly 10 degrees
cooler Wednesday compared to today, except in the southeast where
temperatures will warm before the cold front moves through. The
cooler airmass will be more noticeable on Thursday morning as the
surface ridge axis moves into the area and lows will be in the lower
30s north to mid 40s southeast. Southerly winds will return Thursday
as the surface ridge moves east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

The warming trend continues Friday into the weekend with upper 60s
to lower 70s highs.  Another but larger amplitude trough in the
upper jet coming off the Pacific starts setting up across the
Western U.S. This next system coming from the west will bring rain
chances back into our forecast for Saturday and Sunday.  Preciptable
water forecast suggest an abundant return of moisture to fuel this
next two-day rain system with a potential cooling trend into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Storms have developed along a line through western Kansas and the
northern panhandles in addition to a few isolated storms out ahead
of the line in the panhandles and in north central Oklahoma. These
storms will make their way eastward, generally weakening and
becoming more scattered as they cross into Oklahoma.

In the wake of these showers and storms, some brief MVFR ceilings
may be possible, though chances are too low to mention at any
particular site. Additionally, low level wind shear may briefly
increase as the low level jet passes over the region.

A cold front will move through Wednesday, bringing gusty northwest
winds behind it and clearing out any clouds.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  55  63  39 /   0  40  10   0
Hobart OK         70  51  66  36 /   0  30   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  74  57  69  41 /   0  20   0   0
Gage OK           69  43  61  33 /   0  60   0   0
Ponca City OK     71  52  62  35 /   0  60  20   0
Durant OK         73  52  74  44 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...14