Stillwater, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

886
FXUS64 KOUN 120403
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1103 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1102 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

 - Severe storms are possible through the overnight hours. Main
   hazards are damaging wind gusts, large hail, and flash
   flooding.

 - Temperatures "cooling" slightly below average early to middle
   of the week, gradually warming into next weekend.

 - Low chances for showers and storms continue much of the week,
   with highest chances today and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

A mid-level trough will continue to move across the Plains today,
and will provide enough large scale ascent for scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening hours. Sufficient
instability will support stronger updrafts with the initial
development for large hail concerns. Weak deep-layer shear will
support pulse-like storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts
as they collapse. The primary area for these storms to develop
are across north central to central and down to southwestern
Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and evening.
Additional complex of storms may move off the high plains of Texas
and move into southwestern portions of the area late tonight into
the overnight hours. The primary hazard with this activity would
be damaging wind gusts.

With the potential for numerous rounds of precipitation, flooding
will be possible across much of the area. 1-2 inches is expected
across a broad area, with local amounts up to 4 inches possible. A
flood watch is in effect from 21Z Monday to 12Z Tuesday for all
areas excluding northwest and southeastern Oklahoma.

Bunker

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Lingering showers and storms are possible Tuesday morning across
much of the area. This activity should diminish in
coverage/intensity in the morning. Additional thunderstorms are
possible Tuesday afternoon across much of the area. A few stronger
storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts and small
hail. Tuesday will kick start much cooler temperatures across the
area. Afternoon highs overall will get up to the upper 80s to low
90s.

Low rain/thunderstorm chances will continue into Wednesday, with
similar temperatures across the area. A mid-level ridge will start
to approach the area Wednesday from the west, but we likely won`t
feel the affects from this until later in the week.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Upper ridging will begin to rebuild across the southeastern US as we
head into the end of the week into the weekend. This should lead to
a rebound in temperatures, with highs pushing near or slightly
above seasonal averages (mid to upper 90s) by Saturday and Sunday.
Rain/storm chances are expected to decrease during this period
but not disappear altogether as the center of the upper ridge will
be far enough from the area to allow for at least slight chances
(10-20%) for storms to continue into the weekend.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Scattered thunderstorms continue tonight, mainly affecting southern
Oklahoma and north Texas. Reduced visibilities due to heavy rain and
gusty erratic winds will accompany storms. Outside of convection,
winds will generally be light and variable. There`s some signal for
thunderstorms again this afternoon and evening, but confidence is
too low for mention in the TAFs.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  69  87  71 /  30  60  20  20
Hobart OK         96  68  90  69 /  20  80  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  97  71  91  71 /  20  80  30  20
Gage OK           88  64  88  65 /  40  40  10  10
Ponca City OK     88  69  88  69 /  60  40  10  20
Durant OK         95  72  93  73 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ007-008-012-013-
     016>031-033>042-044>046.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14