Stillwater, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

053
FXUS64 KOUN 090346
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1046 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1046 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

    - Late week elevated fire weather

- Near record temperatures possible on Saturday

- Strong cold front late in the weekend or early next week

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Low temperatures tonight will fall into the mid 50s north to low 60s
south with mainly dry conditions, although a couple showers may
develop overnight in western Oklahoma on the nose of the low-level
jet. Chances for this are fairly low, with PoPs capped around
10%.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Fairly similar conditions to today are expected on Wednesday as
upper ridging remains nearly stationary across the southwestern US
and extends into our region. Mid-level temperatures will increase
slightly, which will help high temperatures a couple degrees
warmer than today`s values, with highs pushing back to the upper
80s to mid 90s.

Another round of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be
possible Wednesday night as a shortwave drops southeastward across
Kansas and the low-level jet moves a bit further eastward into our
area. Coverage is expected to be higher than tonight, but chances
are still only 20-30%. While chances are relatively higher earlier
in the day Thursday, widely scattered precipitation could linger
into the afternoon Thursday. Otherwise, another warm day is
expected with above average temperatures continuing.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Monday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

By Friday into Saturday, the mid-level ridge across the western U.S.
will expand eastward toward the Southern Plains in tandem with the
low-level thermal ridge. Hot conditions are likely on Saturday with
highs in the 90s to near 100 deg F. Probabilistic guidance indicates
roughly a 20% chance of reaching 100 deg F across southwest Oklahoma
and adjacent parts of north Texas. Some locations may even get
close to record highs Saturday afternoon. The hot and dry
conditions may result in elevated fire weather conditions across
the west.

By late Saturday into Sunday, a cold front will advance southward
across the Southern Plains as a large-scale trough amplifies across
the Great Lakes. Ensemble spread indicates uncertainty on the timing
of the aforementioned front. As a result, there could be a north
to south temperature gradient for high temperatures Sunday.
Cooler air will arrive early next week in the wake of the cold
front, but it remains to be seen how much cool air will advect
into the Southern Plains. That said, guidance has trended towards
a more amplified trough with stronger cold air advection, with
NBM now showing highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows
potentially in the 40s in many spots early next week. In fact, the
cooler end of guidance (NBM10-25th percentile) is even showing
lows in the 30s in much of northern Oklahoma. No precipitation is
currently forecast with this front.

Mahale/Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Light winds will vary between easterly and southerly. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will continue.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  59  87  63 /   0  10  10  20
Hobart OK         90  62  94  63 /   0  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  91  61  94  63 /   0  10  10   0
Gage OK           88  57  91  55 /   0  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     83  55  88  59 /  10   0   0  20
Durant OK         85  56  88  57 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14