Stillwater, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

726
FXUS64 KOUN 121712
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 123 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

- Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms between today and
Friday, mainly along and southeast of I-44.

- Warming up into the weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Precipitation coverage during the day on Wednesday was less than
anticipated, owing in part to a weaker/further northeast progression
of the cutoff low and lower-than-anticipated instability. With that
said, regional radar mosaic shows multiple areas of convection with
cooling cloud tops in central Texas. With the trough continuing to
lift north, there`s good reason to believe CAM guidance as it brings
that blob of moderate rain north-northeast into our southeast
Oklahoma counties between about 5 am and 11 am this morning.

Weak instability will continue with MLCAPE not exceeding 1,000 J/kg,
but the bigger concern will be extremely moist tropospheric profiles
(modeled PWAT values around 1.75 inches, well into the 95th
percentile range for this time of year) and extremely weak
tropospheric wind profiles (model soundings show tropsopheric-mean
winds around 15 knots). This will encourage slow-moving, vociferous
downpours. Overall, the risk for heavy rain looks to be
relatively confined to the immediate downstream regions from the
ongoing convection blob - roughly from Marietta toward Coalgate
and points east. But in that area, it wouldn`t be surprising to
see someone pick up 2 inches of rain this morning. Another area of
showers is likely to develop in the western portions of the Green
Country and wrap back westward toward north central Oklahoma.
Overall rainfall totals do look to be a bit lighter here.

Following this morning round of showers and storms, the upper low
will begin to depart and precipitation chances will drop from the 60-
80 percent range in southeast Oklahoma to more like 20-40 percent
through the rest of the day and tonight. High temperatures will
remain on the cooler side near and east of I-35 where anvil debris
and cooling from showers occurs. Out in western Oklahoma and western
north Texas, sunshine will be more prevalent and highs will get into
the mid-80s.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Guidance has continued to trend much slower and stronger with the
upper-level low during the day tomorrow (almost exactly the opposite
of what ended up happening on Wednesday, so take that with a grain
of salt). Welcome to the season of low model predictability.
Interestingly, that trend toward lower heights just east of our area
may end up leading to a warmer day across much of our area - models
now show just enough of a surface wave remaining in southern
Missouri that it veers out surface winds along and west of I-35,
with temperatures subsequently jumping well into the 90s in our
downslope-prone areas. Given the soil moisture in the area, it`s not
a surprise to see NBM showing an area of 100-103 heat indices in
southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. WBGTR values look to
stay out of the "extreme" category, so heat headlines don`t look
like they`ll be necessary. With that said, it does look like a
rather unpleasant introduction to summer.

On the precipitation front, the short-term period continues to look
low-predictability at best. There`s a chance that wraparound showers
hang on in the eastern corner of our area tomorrow morning with the
cutoff low slowing down. As temperatures rise tomorrow afternoon,
the NSSL WRF is a major outlier in depicting convection initiation
and upscale growth into a couple of clusters within a highly
unstable northwest flow regime. That said, a few other HREF members
do try to develop at least some storms in that unstable airmass, so
it bears watching.

As we move into Saturday, things start to look a little more
traditional for June with a subtropical ridge located over
AZ/NM/Mexico and the southern Plains on the northwest flow
periphery. That will let temperatures heat up even another degree or
two out west and several degrees in the eastern zones, with a chance
for storms to move into northwest Oklahoma Saturday night off of the
high terrain.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Global guidance continues to depict a deamplification of the ridge
on Sunday and Monday, with the eastern lobe of it reached the Llano
Estacado. Interestingly enough, there does look like there will be
15-30 knots of 500 mb flow coming from the due north on the
downstream periphery of the ridge. That would seem to argue for a
pattern favoring High Plains development and storms reaching toward
the western parts of our areas in the evening, particularly with the
early-summer humid airmass still in place. As for temperatures
themselves - if those 500 mb heights do in fact start pushing 591-
594 dam, mid-to-upper 90s seem like a pretty reasonable landing
zone, with maybe some low 100s in the southwest OK/western north
TX heat bullseye.

Global models also continue to show a trough reaching its way into
the Great Plains toward the middle of the week, though significant
timing uncertainties remain. Regardless, this trough argues against
the self-reinforcing "heat dome" that NBM seems to be leaning
toward, so if I had to hedge my guesses on how NBM will verify with
temperatures from next Wednesday onward, I`d lean toward it biasing
high. Furthermore, if that trough is able to penetrate through the
ridge and bring southwest or even westerly flow to the Southern
Plains again, chances for organized thunderstorms would increase.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Varied flight category (between mainly VFR & MVFR) is forecast
during the upcoming period. Areas of low stratus continue to
thin/erode generally from west-to-east across the area early this
afternoon. This will transition western terminals
(KWWR/KCSM/KSPS/KLAW) to prevailing VFR conditions sooner than
areas further east. Low stratus is expected to re-emerge early on
Friday morning (after ~07-09 UTC).

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  89  71  91 /  20  20  10  10
Hobart OK         67  96  71  97 /  10  20  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  69  95  75  96 /  10  20  10  10
Gage OK           63  94  67  95 /   0   0  20   0
Ponca City OK     66  85  67  88 /  20  20  10  10
Durant OK         69  87  73  89 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...09