Stillwater, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

355
FXUS64 KOUN 231135
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
535 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 412 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

- Areas of fog possible northwest this morning. Drizzle and light
  showers developing today. Rain chances increase tonight into
  Tuesday.

- Mild temperatures for Christmas.

- Another storm system brings shower and thunderstorm chances
  Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Clouds have spread over the area this morning with the low-level
moisture increase. The fog so far has been confined to far
northwest Oklahoma where temperatures were able to cool
radiational before the higher dewpoint began moving in. Will
watch trends, but with the surface moisture advection waning
behind the initial surge, currently think the potential of dense
fog is low except in the far northwest where the Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued.

Higher dewpoints are lurking to the south and as this moisture
spreads into the area, we could see some patchy drizzle or small
areas of light rain. Showers will start developing this evening
(possibly as early as this afternoon) as the mid-level trough
approaches from the west. There has been a signal of a east- west
enhanced band of showers developing with frontogenesis above the
surface as the low-level cyclone develops in the southwestern
portion of the forecast area. It`s hard to place this projected
band too specifically, but the best signal is a little north of
the Interstate 40 corridor somewhere between an Arapaho- Enid-
Ponca City line to an El Reno-Edmond-Cushing line. Even as showers
become more widespread through the evening as the mid-level
trough approaches, there continues to be a signal of a persistent
east- west band north/northeast of the surface low, so have
adjusted POPs with this in mind.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 412 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

The showers and thunderstorms developing tonight will persist in
the east Tuesday morning near and ahead of a cold front moving
through the area. Shortwave energy digging into the base of the
large-scale mid-level trough will amplify the trough over the area
and maintain shower/storm potential into the afternoon and early
evening Tuesday ahead of the front. But this trough and the
associated precipitation move east of the area Tuesday night.
Mid-level ridging builds over the area behind this system on
Wednesday keeping Christmas Day dry and mild. The next mid-level
trough approaches Wednesday night/Thursday and we could start
seeing precipitation develop ahead of this system after midnight
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 412 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Showers will increase Thursday morning ahead of this storm system
and become widespread during the day. The model trend is for this
system to potentially be opening up from a closer low to an open
trough as it moves into the Plains. But almost all intensity and
storm path scenarios shown over the last few model runs bring high
chances of showers into the area. The timing has also slowed down
a little with the main forcing moving into the area during the day
Thursday and this may allow additional time for low-level moisture
advection and additional destabilization over the area, although
the widespread cloudiness and shower/storm development will be
working against destabilization by limiting diurnal heating.
Regardless it looks like thunderstorms will be possible on
Thursday. The current timing of this system suggests precipitation
will be moving out Thursday night/Friday morning. Another mid-
level trough close behind this one is shown to move over the area
Friday and Saturday, although moisture will be more limited in the
wake of the Thursday system and precipitation chances will
probable be confined so southeastern Oklahoma. It looks to be mild
and dry after the Friday/Saturday system moves out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Lowered category is expected at all terminals through the period.
Increasing moisture advection is leading to widespread stratus
development early this morning. Cigs range from MVFR central/south
to IFR at northwest terminals.

Similar conditions are expected through the day, with gradual
expansion of IFR (or lower) cigs into this evening. Additionally,
scattered to numerous areas of light drizzle are forecast by this
afternoon, with chances for thunder late in the period at
KOKC/KOUN/KLAW/KDUA.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  48  55  41 /  10  60  20   0
Hobart OK         63  47  58  41 /  10  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  68  51  62  44 /  10  10  10   0
Gage OK           54  39  55  35 /  10  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     55  45  53  36 /  20  50  30   0
Durant OK         62  54  63  46 /  10  60  70  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ004-005.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09