Owasso, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

178
FXUS64 KTSA 132322
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

 - Low daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through
   the forecast period. Storms will become increasingly confined
   to the higher terrain across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest
   Arkansas during the afternoon hours.

 - Near or above average temperatures, with heat index values near
   or above 100 degrees late this week, this weekend, and into
   early next week. Heat headlines may be required for some
   locations beginning on Friday.

 - A cooler and wetter weather pattern looks probable by midweek
   next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Northeast-to-southwest oriented mid/upper level trough axis
continues to push across the forecast area early this afternoon.
Weak lifting ahead of the axis has already caused storm initiation
across portions of far southeast OK and west-central AR early
this afternoon. Main impacts associated with stronger thunderstorm
activity will be brief heavy rain in slow-moving storms, which
may lead to localized flooding, gusty outflow winds, and cloud-to-
ground lighting. Neither widespread flooding nor severe
thunderstorms are anticipated. Isolated convection may linger
into the early-mid evening hours before nocturnal cooling ends
precipitation chances through the remainder of the night.

For tonight, expect another seasonably mild mid-August night with
overnight lows bottoming out in the upper 60s to lower 70s
underneath partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Winds stay light
and variable to near calm. No impacts expected.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Deterministic model and ensemble data are in good agreement that the
mid/upper level ridge, currently position over the Great Basin,
will shift eastward over the Plains tomorrow. Temperatures return
closer to seasonal average tomorrow and will rise above average
starting Friday, with temperatures remaining above average through
the weekend and into the early part of next week. Average high
temperatures will range from the mid-upper 90s Friday-Tuesday.
Likewise, heat index values are expected to climb each day beginning
tomorrow. Values will be on the cusp of Heat Advisory criteria in
the typical "hot" locations tomorrow, perhaps maybe even reaching
advisory criteria for a couple of hours in isolated locations. Will
forgo a Heat Advisory for Thursday at this time, but may need to be
considered if T/Td trend warmer. By Friday, heat headlines will
likely be needed for some portions of the forecast area during the
afternoon hours. In fact, heat headlines appear likely each
afternoon through at least Monday (maybe into Tuesday) next week for
much of the forecast area as peak heat index values rise between 105-
110 deg. Despite the unseasonably hot temperatures in the long-term,
there will be (low) daily chances (10-20%) of diurnally-driven
showers and thunderstorms, especially across the high terrain areas
of northwest AR and southeast OK. Otherwise, most locations will
remain dry.

Another pattern change looks probable by midweek as a potent
mid/upper level synoptic trough forms over eastern Canada and digs
southward over the Northeast/Great Lakes/Midwest regions. This will
cause the summertime ridge to retrograde over the Four Corners
region and produce meridional flow aloft, with eastern OK and
northwest AR residing on the far eastern periphery of the ridge.
This pattern is indicative of pushing surface cold fronts and
mid/upper level shortwave troughs through the region. Long-range
deterministic models show just that, a much cooler and wetter
pattern by Wednesday. Will continue to stick with the NBM solution
for temperatures and precipitation chances at this time, but the
forecast will likely be refined and more detailed by this weekend
or early next week.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  95  76  97 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   74  97  76  98 /   0  10   0  20
MLC   72  95  75  97 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   67  95  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   69  94  70  94 /   0  10   0  10
BYV   69  95  70  95 /   0  10   0  20
MKO   72  95  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   69  95  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
F10   70  94  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   72  94  73  94 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05