McAlester, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

226
FXUS64 KTSA 130929
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
429 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

  - Rain and thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend, with
    potential for a limited severe weather threat Saturday into
    Sunday, mainly in eastern Oklahoma. Continue to monitor the
    forecast for updates and additional details as they become
    available.

  - Warming trend and humid conditions going into next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The upper low responsible for the rain the past couple days is
centered near the Oklahoma/Kansas/Missouri border area early this
morning. This system will continue moving slowly northeast today,
with the most widespread rain today across northwest Arkansas and
far eastern Oklahoma. A few showers and storms may also occur
across the rest of the area early this morning and again late this
afternoon, but coverage will be much lower than it will be farther
east. Afternoon high temperatures will remain in the 70s again
where rain is most prevalent, with the rest of the area warming
into the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Overall, unsettled weather will continue over the weekend with
general upper troughing just east of the area and the potential
for a couple upper level disturbances to drop southeast in the
northwest flow aloft over our area. Scattered showers and storms
are expected to develop late tonight into Saturday morning, mainly
across parts of northeast Oklahoma, and move southeast Saturday
morning before dissipating. With a warm, moist, and unstable
airmass in place, a couple late afternoon and evening storms will
also be possible, and a strong or severe storm cannot be ruled
out.

There is a signal in some of the data for a more organized MCS to
drop southeast into our area either late Saturday night/Sunday
morning, or late Sunday night/Monday morning, or both, so pops
will be maintained during this time period. In general, have gone
above the NBM pops this weekend into Monday to account for these
possibilities.

Very warm and humid conditions will prevail much of next week,
with afternoon heat index values climbing to near or above 100
degrees in some places. At least low shower and storm chances will
continue through at least midweek, with late Wednesday and
Wednesday night perhaps offering a better chance of showers and
storms as a weak surface boundary tries to push into the area
before washing out.

An upper ridge finally begins to build more strongly over our area
by the end of next week, which will likely bring an end to most of
the rain chances for awhile.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR ceilings will gradually transition to MVFR, then expected to
drop to IFR as the night progresses. Transition timing has been
very slow thus far, so confidence with regards to timing is low at
this time. Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
will remain possible through much of the forecast period,
especially across the northwest AR TAF sites. Periods of lowered
visibilities will also remain possible through midday, especially
where showers and drizzle are occurring. Ceilings and visibilities
should improve to VFR around noon or just after noon, with
isolated showers and thunderstorms remaining possible. Winds will
remain light through the period, but will shift from
south/southeast to more out of the west or west-nothwest during
the daytime Friday.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  69  88  70 /  30  30  30  20
FSM   84  69  89  71 /  70  40  30  20
MLC   86  70  89  70 /  40  30  30  20
BVO   83  67  87  67 /  20  20  20  20
FYV   79  65  87  67 /  80  30  30  20
BYV   76  64  87  66 /  80  30  30  20
MKO   83  68  88  70 /  50  30  30  20
MIO   79  66  87  68 /  60  10  20  20
F10   85  68  89  69 /  40  30  30  20
HHW   86  72  88  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...67