McAlester, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

137
FXUS64 KTSA 231725
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1125 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1121 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

 - A few areas of fog may develop Wednesday morning, particularly near
   the Red River and the Kansas border.

 - Well above normal temperatures persist through Saturday. Daily record
   highs are expected with monthly record highs also possible.

 - The next cold front arrives Saturday night, and will usher in
   much more typical temps for this time of year along with a
   chance of showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1059 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Low level moisture surged into the area overnight with dew points
near 60 F across the area. Lingering low clouds associated with the
moisture will decay into the afternoon as the moisture depth is
fairly shallow. Noticeable warming will occur this afternoon,
with widespread 70s expected. The warmest locations will approach
80 F. Record highs are expected at each of our climate sites.

Another very warm night is expected tonight with lows mostly near
60. The one exception may be across the far northwest portion of the
forecast area where a boundary is situated, and temperatures will
cool more effectively to the northwest of it. Areas of low clouds
and fog may develop again overnight, with the best chance northwest
of that boundary and close to the Red River.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1059 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Any areas of low clouds or fog will clear by mid morning Wednesday
with very warm temperatures developing for the afternoon. Widespread
70s are expected with a few of the warmest locations possibly
touching 80 F. The atmosphere supports the potential to be a few
degrees warmer but some high clouds and the high moisture content in
the boundary layer will keep temperatures from reaching their full
potential. A similar story is expected for Christmas. Record highs
are lower on Christmas, so the current forecast would suggest record
highs for all of our climate sites.

As the low level flow becomes more SW for Friday and Saturday this
will increase the downslope component and reduce moisture advection.
This change will probably increase temperatures 1-3 F over the mid
week period, particularly for the southern half of the area. Much of
southeast OK and west-central AR will reach 80 F these days, with
mid to upper 70s continuing north of I-40.

The pattern changes Saturday night into Sunday as a strong cold
front moves through. Up to this point ensemble guidance has been
mostly dry, with just a few showers possible for areas southeast of
I-44. However ensemble guidance has been successively correcting the
trough to be more consolidated and further to the southwest each
run. The result is a colder trough and better chance of
precipitation. For now did not totally lean into this outcome, but
the forecast may need adjustments in the days ahead if trends
continue. Monday looks cool and dry, with a return of warming
southerly wind by next Tuesday. &&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Dense fog/LIFR conditions at KBVO will burn off by late morning.
MVFR ceilings at KMLC and KFSM may spread north into the remaining
northwest Arkansas sites this morning before the clouds scatter
out around midday. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail
this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Fog at KBVO has dissipated, and MVFR ceilings will continue to
lift/scatter early in the forecast period with VFR conditions
prevailing through the rest of afternoon and most of the evening.
Some return of low clouds and fog in similar orientation observed
today, is expected back late tonight an Wed morning. Fog potential
at KBVO may be reduced by increasing high clouds, but potential
remains for MVFR or IFR conditions at most sites late tonight and
part of Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  60  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   76  60  79  59 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   78  62  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   73  52  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   73  60  76  61 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   73  60  75  62 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   77  61  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   73  60  77  61 /   0   0   0   0
F10   78  61  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   75  62  78  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14