Guymon, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

695
FXUS64 KAMA 160537
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1237 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- Isolated chance for thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday in the
eastern combined Panhandles.

- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions on Sunday and Monday
  across the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Tonight, winds will remain gusty until precipitation dissipates,
where winds will likely bottom out to less than 10 MPH sustained
winds. Winds tonight could remain breezy (up to 20 MPH) in the SE,
where pressure gradient remains dense. Relative humidity recovery
will be poorest in the southwestern CWA, where retreating moisture
will not reach overnight before pushing back east.

On Saturday, minimum relative humidities of 5-10% are expected to be
widespread as the retreated dryline pushes back east. Breezy wind
conditions on both sides of the dryline along with these low
relative humidities will lead to widespread critical fire weather
across the combined Panhandles. The dryline will likely set up over
the easter Panhandles for much of the day, pushing east into the
evening. It is possible for isolated convection to initiate off of
the dryline tomorrow afternoon/early evening. However, questionable
forcing along the dryline is the main concern. It will likely take
deep mixing (due to the elevated mixed layer) in order to initiate
convection. The best chances for convection look to be in our
northeast CWA, where we see better H700 Theta E advections into the
late afternoon/evening hours, which could degrade capping enough to
allow for isolated convective initiation.

Overnight Saturday, the dryline retreats back into the eastern
Panhandles. A tighter pressure gradient and upper-level support
arriving in the form of trough ejection into the panhandles will
increase wind speeds, likely to advisory levels on Sunday. Poor RH
recovery overnight Saturday in the central and western combined
Panhandles, minimum RH values of 5-10% across much of the
Panhandles, and increased wind speeds will likely bring widespread
critical and possible extreme fire weather conditions. A lack of
obvious forcing along the dryline on Sunday will make deep mixing a
necessity for any convective initiation for the eastern Panhandles.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Sunday`s pattern persists into Monday, with strong winds and poor RH
recovery in the western Panhandles. When relative humidities bottom
out on Monday (down to 5-10%) critical to extreme fire weather
concerns will return. Precipitation chances look to be a similar
story to the weekend, with a diffuse dryline setup over the eastern
Panhandles with lacking forcing and deep mixing necessary for any
initiation.

The cold front has begun to trend slower, likely reaching the OK
Panhandle overnight Monday into Tuesday. This will be monitored
closely as we gain more confidence in the short term, as this will
lead to gusty winds and a wind shift from SSW to N, which will make
any ongoing fires behave erratically.

The cold frontal passage will knock down high temperatures
throughout next week, warming back up as we approach the end of the
forecast period. A wetter pattern is being hinted at for the middle
of next week, with an upper level shortwave upstream providing
synoptic support for weak surface lifting mechanisms and lingering
moisture. However, whether beneficial rainfall will come from this
wetter pattern is still uncertain.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

As of late tonight, latest radar and satellite was seeing storms
and their expected cloud cover breakdown, which will leave all
terminals at VFR for the overnight. The only thing that may need
to be watch is brief reduction to visibility due to smoke from on
going wildfire in the area. However, expectations do not see any
reduction in visibility being enough to drop any of the terminals
to MVFR conditions. Otherwise, look for surface winds to pick up
around KAMA around sunrise with other terminals following in the
late morning and early afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

For today, a surface low just off the southern Front Range will
see the Panhandles under our more typical down-slope wind set up.
This unfortunately means that very dry and hot conditions will
continue to be present for another day as locations see single
digit relative humidity values and 90 to near triple digit highs.
Winds will mostly be out of the southwest to south for the day
with speeds thankfully only around 15 to 20 mph with gust upwards
of 35 mph. One thing that may need to be watch will be the
northwestern Panhandles however. Currently latest CAMs have seen
this areas still hold onto some weak instability during the
afternoon. While this instability is not looking strong enough to
trigger more thunderstorms, it could lead to pyro-cumulus
development from any fire that are currently present or start in
the area. Otherwise, very poor overnight recovery looks to follow
for the western and northern portions of the Panhandles that nigh
with some places barley reach relative humidity values of 20
percent.

Sunday will see increasing winds with an approaching upper level
system that will induce typical dry-line scenario. Unfortunately,
present models have seen the dry well east of the Panhandles,
which will result in much of the area under very dry and windy
conditions for the day. Relative humidity values are expected to
be as low as 5 percent with winds gusting out of the southwester
to 40 to 45 mph. This will lead to RFTIs upwards of 7 across the
western two thirds of the combined Panhandles. Monday is expected
to be a repeat with a potential for winds to gust slightly higher
at time in the 45 to 55 mph range. Although lightning will not be
of concern, any remaining embers from ongoing fires will have a
potential to spark new fires. Sunday has a 10 percent chance to
see significant fires, with Monday having as high as a 30 percent
chance. A cold front is expected late Monday with low confidence
on the exact timing of the front. Generally, for now, expecting
the front to enter the Oklahoma Panhandle in the late
afternoon/evening time frame.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ001>020-317.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for TXZ001>020-317.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ001>003.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...11