Guymon, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

566
FXUS64 KAMA 021149
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
649 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 444 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

-Light rain showers to isolated thunderstorms possible tonight.
 Will not rule out wetting rain as we get further into the
 overnight hours, mainly for the eastern Panhandles. Very strong
 wind gusts 40-55 mph could occur with these storms.

-Elevated fire weather conditions today due to very low RH values
 for the central and western Panhandles.

- A pattern change will occur late this week into the weekend
  which will result in cooler temperatures, widespread chances for
  rain, and the potential snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Dryline is well off to the east and with the front through the
area west to northwest flow will usher in drier air for a good
chunk of the Panhandles. Highs will be cooler today, but still in
the 60s to lower 70s. Main upper trough is diving down over
southern Nevada and that southwest flow ahead is what`s keeping
the mild conditions going for today and again tomorrow. But we are
starting to tap into some mid level moisture and with subtle
waves of disturbances embedded in that southwest flow, it looks
like we`ll be able to pull off some showers and storms again
tonight. They will be pretty similar to the storms we just had
this past evening as about 100-200 J/kg of elevated CAPE around
the 500mb region and ample lift from the shortwave, with a strong
inverted V sounding to support very strong to possibly isolated
damaging wind gusts. That will be how the pattern starts off, but
the moisture column is expected to saturate a bit more through the
night and we may transition to more of just showers to storms
with some light to moderate rainfall in the mid to early mo
-Low to moderate chances to see some low end measurable rain, not
 a wetting rain, across the southeastern combined Panhandles
 tomorrow night.rning
hours.

Highs on Thursday look to be just a bit cooler than we expect this
afternoon. Dry southwest flow will continue as we don`t expect
much rain, other than maybe some lingering morning showers. As we
head into Thursday night we`ll start tapping into that Gulf
moisture a lot more and the PWAT`s will be on the rise to about
0.70-0.90". Pops will begin to pick up Thursday night into Friday
and by Friday morning nearly all Panhandles will be >80% chance of
rain.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Friday and Saturday will be quite active as the upper trough
continues to track southeast and looks to be centered down near
the El Paso, TX area. This will continue to pull up more moisture
to the Panhandle, added to it the subtle impulse waves that will
add some enhanced forcing and lift, as well as favorable exit
region of the upper level jet and we may manage to pick up well
over an inch of liquid for most of the Panhandles when the event
is done and over. The biggest challenge with this event will be
determining the winter impacts and just how much of an impact it
will be, as we monitor this cold air push from the north, and how
deep it will be.

As it stands, cold enough air for most areas to change over to
snow as early as midnight Friday night across the north and
potentially around 6-8AM on Saturday across the south. As it
stands model soundings support nearly 12 hours of light to
moderate snow. Should this pan out, would argue that despite it
being April and the higher sun angle, minor to moderate impacts
from accumulating snow are certainly possible. And given the
projected path of the disturbance to the northeast and be centered
over Lubbock Saturday evening, puts the Panhandles in a good
position to be under the deformation zone and pick up quite a bit
of moisture, possibly in the form of all snow. Right now the
probability of exceeding 1" of snow for everything north and west
of the HWY 60 corridor is about 70 percent. Latest guidance is
bringing the higher impacts to the southwest Panhandles, and that
falls well in line with that deformation band of precipitation
that looks to impact that area.

This will be a short lived winter system as we move into Sunday
temperatures will be back in the 50s, and then we`ll transition
to high pressure and warmer temperatures back in the mid 60s to
start next week. By mid next week we`ll be mostly in the 70s.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites. Winds will
be in the 15kt range, with possible gusts to 25kts and out of the
west to northwest through about 00z. Thereafter they will come
around in the 10-15kt range to a more southerly direction. Cigs
overall will be mainly mid and high clouds in the SCT-BKN range.
KAMA will see some -SHRA and may even see some -TSRA after 03z
tonight. Currently no mention of -TSRA as confidence in thunder is
not high enough at this time.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                67  44  68  42 /   0  40  10  80
Beaver OK                  68  40  68  41 /   0  30  30  50
Boise City OK              61  33  64  34 /   0  10  10  20
Borger TX                  70  46  71  44 /   0  40  10  70
Boys Ranch TX              67  43  69  41 /   0  20  10  70
Canyon TX                  67  44  68  41 /   0  50  10  80
Clarendon TX               71  47  69  45 /   0  60  10  80
Dalhart TX                 63  34  65  35 /   0  10  10  40
Guymon OK                  66  36  68  38 /   0  10  20  40
Hereford TX                66  41  68  39 /   0  40  10  80
Lipscomb TX                69  45  66  44 /   0  50  20  60
Pampa TX                   68  44  68  43 /   0  50  10  70
Shamrock TX                72  47  69  45 /   0  60  10  70
Wellington TX              74  48  69  46 /   0  60  10  70

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...89