Warren, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

332
FXUS61 KCLE 120549
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
149 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to influence the region into Tuesday.
A cold front will sweep east through the area on Wednesday,
followed by high pressure which is expected to persist into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak surface trough is resulting in a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms generally along and just west of the I-71 corridor
this afternoon, though updrafts continue to struggle given an
unfavorable mid-level environment and weak forcing. A stronger
surface trough is located off towards the west across portions
of northern Indiana and eastern Michigan which is resulting in
more established updrafts and increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. Much of this activity should remain off to the
north and west of the region, though can`t rule out brief
impacts across far Northwest Ohio, including the Toledo area.

Apart from a few isolated to scattered showers and storms along
a lake breeze between Cleveland and Erie in the afternoon, attention
then turns towards Tuesday evening and overnight as a cold
front approaches the Great Lakes region. Ahead of the front, a
mid- level shortwave will result in scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms across northern Indiana and Michigan
Tuesday afternoon. The expectation is for this convective
activity to arrive across Northwest Ohio around sunset or
shortly thereafter. The primary threat with this cluster of
storms would be strong wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph. The potential
for severe- level winds in excess of 58 mph appears low at this
time. This pre-frontal area of showers and storms will continue
to push east across the rest of the area overnight into
Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will remain above average on Tuesday with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat indices reaching into the
mid-90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and storms associated with the pre-frontal feature
Tuesday night will exit east of the area by Wednesday morning.
Will then need to monitor the convective environment and how
well it is able to recover by Wednesday afternoon as the cold
front sweeps east through the area. Some models do indicate the
potential for decent shower and thunderstorm coverage along the
front Wednesday afternoon, particularly along and east of the
I-71 corridor, so will be something to watch in future forecast
iterations. Otherwise, high pressure will build south across
the Great Lakes on Thursday, which should favor a mainly dry and
quiet forecast into Thursday night, though can`t rule out a
stray shower or storm near the US-30 corridor, closer to the
front.

Seasonable temperatures are expected for Wednesday and Thursday
with highs in the low to mid-80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly quiet weather is expected for the start of the long term
period as high pressure becomes established across the region.
The pattern may become more active on Sunday into Monday as
low- level moisture and instability gradually creep up ahead of
an approaching cold front from the north. Above average
temperatures are favored for the long term period, with highs
generally ranging in the mid to upper 80s. Saturday appears to
be the warmest day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Generally expect VFR conditions through at least this morning.
Patchy fog may at inland terminals and across NW OH tonight,
however most guidance suggests that visibilities will not be
reduced below VFR. Isolated diurnally-driven showers may develop
across northwestern Ohio and along the lake breeze in NE OH/NW
PA this afternoon into early this evening. Given the widely
scattered and somewhat disorganized nature of any
showers/storms, most terminals with rain chances have PROB30
groups with potential for a brief period of non-VFR conditions
in precipitation. Confidence is somewhat higher at KTOL/KFDY so
have VCSH for this afternoon/early evening.

A cold front will advance east towards the area tonight,
resulting in increasing rain chances across the western half of
the area late in the TAF period. Still a lot of uncertainty in
the coverage and timing of showers, but currently thinking that
the best rain chances will remain west of KCLE/KMFD through 06Z
Wednesday. Non-VFR conditions are possible in any showers that
move directly over terminals.

Light southerly winds continued through tonight before becoming
a bit more southwesterly and increasing to 5 to 10 knots late
this morning into this afternoon. A lake breeze will produce a
period of more westerly flow at KCLE and northerly flow at KERI
this afternoon. Light southwesterly flow is expected to develop
after 00Z Wednesday.

Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with
non-VFR conditions are forecast through Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally expect quiet marine conditions on Lake Erie for the
next several days. Winds will largely be southwesterly at 5 to
10 knots today with a period of onshore flow likely due to a
lake breeze this afternoon into early this evening. Winds will
become more westerly as a cold front approaches on Wednesday and
shift to the northeast behind the front Wednesday night through
Thursday. Winds in the open waters may briefly reach 10 to 15
knots behind the front late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Light east/northeast winds are expected as high pressure
continues to build into the region Friday with offshore winds
around 5 to 10 knots develop Saturday. Daily lake breezes are
likely during the afternoon both Friday and Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15