Warren, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

195
FXUS61 KCLE 160607
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
207 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Timing and impacts of thunderstorms for Saturday have become more
refined. Otherwise, no major changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periodic showers and thunderstorms possible this weekend with a
passing warm front with a few possible strong storms on Saturday.
Additional rain/thunderstorm chances increase again mid-week with a
cold front passage.

2) There will much warmer temperatures across the region Monday and
Tuesday being on the southern side of the warm front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1:
Late this evening a warm front will lift north across the region
with temperatures and dew points increasing behind it. There will be
a remnant complex moving across northern Indiana up into Michigan
that will enter northern Ohio around 12Z tomorrow morning. This
feature may have some stronger storms along with it as it enters the
CWA with bulk shear of around 35-45 knots and MUCAPE values being
marginal around 500-1000 J/kg. Lapse rates will be lacking given the
time of day this feature will pass through as well.
Showers/thunderstorms may have a brief lull as the morning
precipitation exits off to the east by mid-day. In the afternoon,
there will be a weak shortwave moving across the Ohio Valley that
will help support additional showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon
into the evening. With the break in precipitation mentioned above,
there may be some opportunity for instability to increase in the
western two-thirds of the CWA and less so with the eastern portion
given showers may linger over into peak heating preventing ample
warming. Regardless, with the morning precipitation across the
region, how much the area clears out and destabilizes again will be
the main question. Though with decent flow aloft, as mentioned above
with the bulk shear, there has been a marginal risk of severe
weather introduced for the western two-thirds of northern Ohio for
Saturday. This is due to the isolated strong to damaging wind threat
across the region with the morning convection as there is less
confidence during the afternoon/evening in potential strong to
severe weather. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to exit out
to the east Saturday evening as the shortwave support moves off.

With the warm front stalling out to the north of the region by
Sunday morning, there will continue to be some shower and
thunderstorm chances, though will generally be on the low end. An
additional shortwave may pass through the region Sunday afternoon
that could help support a few more showers as well. Precipitation
chances decrease into Monday as the drier air moves into the region.

Precipitation chances return to the region mid-week as a low
pressure system enters the Great Lakes region. PoP chances will
increase Tuesday ahead of the low and with increase moisture flow.
There still some uncertainty of when the cold front will be and will
impact any thunderstorm chances across the region. Additionally,
there looks to be some potential for severe weather with this system
on Tuesday, so will need to monitor how it progresses as the forcing
with the cold front will be key to the development.

KEY MESSAGE #2:
As the warm front lifts north of the region tonight, temperatures
will begin to warm to be well above average by Monday and Tuesday.
850 temperatures will rise to 16-18C across the region that will
help support highs in the mid to upper 80s with a few spots possibly
touching 90. The warmest of the days will be Monday as there will be
clear skies allowing for temperatures to warm. Tuesday won`t be
quite as warm as cloud cover will begin to move into the region from
the west, though highs will still be around the mid 80s.
Additionally, dew points will climb as well with the increased south
to southwesterly flow across the region. Dew points will climb up
into the low to mid 60s on Monday and close to 70 on Tuesday. Not
expecting any heat related headlines for either day, though given
how early in the season it is, there will be a heat risk. From the
NWS Heat Risk product, it has been highlighting the region with
moderate heat risk for both Monday and Tuesday, and approaches major
in a few locations for heat related impacts. With moderate level
heat risk, this highlights days with increased impacts due to heat,
and to promote precautions for outdoor plans and/or those with heat
sensitivities. Temperatures will begin to moderate Wednesday as a
cold front moves through the region with precipitation expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR early this morning. A warm front will lift east-northeast
across the area this morning/early afternoon. There will likely
be scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded storms with
the warm front. While the potential for thunder with this first
round is somewhat ambiguous due to marginal instability,
confidence in at least some showers is fairly high within a few
hour window at all terminals and is reflected in the TAFs.
Confidence in what happens between mid-afternoon and evening
behind the warm front is lower. A disturbance aloft may be
enough to spark a second round of showers and storms, but
confidence in enough warmth and instability building that
quickly behind the initial round of precipitation is lower.
Potential for afternoon showers/storms is higher farther south
and lower to the north. Mainly handled the afternoon activity
with PROB30 groups due to lower confidence. Confidence in drier
weather returning increases into tonight. Some MVFR ceilings
will likely be around at times this afternoon into tonight as
low-level moisture increases.

Mainly light south winds in the 5-10kt range early this morning
will shift more southwest today, increasing to 10-18kt with
gusts 20-25kt during the midday and afternoon hours. Winds
become lighter and lose their gusts this evening and tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon and evening, though chances are lower. Non-VFR likely
at times in showers/thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds in the 10-20kt range are expected over
the lake today. Winds may be a bit gusty at times in the
nearshore late this morning and this afternoon...current
impression is any gustier winds will be too short-lived for a
Small Craft Advisory, though trends will be monitored. Either
way, waves up to 2 feet in the nearshore waters and 2 to 4 feet
in the open waters through early this evening. Winds and waves
diminish tonight into early Sunday, with winds turning more
easterly at under 15kt on Sunday. Winds turn back to a more
south to southwest direction Monday and Tuesday. Winds will
generally be 10-20kt early this week over the lake, but will
need to watch for winds to briefly reach 20kt sustained with
higher gusts Monday and Tuesday afternoons, particularly in the
western nearshore waters. Waves will generally be 2 to 4 feet in
the open waters and up to 2 feet in the nearshore early in the
week. Can not rule out some eventual consideration for a Small
Craft Advisory Monday or Tuesday afternoons in the stronger
south-southwest winds, especially west of Cleveland.
Thunderstorm potential increases Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan