Warren, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

320
FXUS61 KCLE 051755
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
155 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. A cooler pattern for
the next few days will allow for periodic precipitation chances
and possible light snow accumulation across northeastern Ohio
and northwestern Pennsylvania Monday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few rounds of precipitation are expected this week with lake
effect rain/snow showers likely in northeastern Ohio and
northwestern Pennsylvania. Light snow accumulations are possible
within the snow belt region Monday night into Tuesday.

2) Much cooler, below average temperatures are expected through the
middle of the week until temperatures moderate by the second half of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will briefly build south of the region today providing
some relief from the rain the region has seen the past several days.
Upper level troughing will move in today and persist across eastern
Canada for the first half of the week that will provide support for
the periods of precipitation. There maybe some light rain showers
across far northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania today
through late this evening with flow shifting to be more westerly
around the trough creating upsloping conditions. A shortwave will
move through the region on Monday with more moisture that will
provide better support for precipitation starting Monday morning.
There maybe some rain/snow mix to start the day on Monday, but
most of the precipitation will transition over to mainly rain
throughout the day. Most of the precipitation should be confined
to northern Ohio into Pennsylvania, though scattered
precipitation is possible elsewhere. With the colder air and
persistent northwesterly flow, there will be support for lake
effect/upslope snow showers across the snow belt. The ground
should still be fairly warm from the past week which should
inhibit the snow accumulation, but 1-3" are possible in
northwestern Pennsylvania with less than an inch expected in the
rest of the snow belt. Any snow showers should end by Tuesday
afternoon as ridging begins to build in and the upper level
troughing exits.

The pattern will shift again as high pressure builds in Tuesday
evening with a couple days of dry weather expected during the
middle of the week. Rain chances return Thursday night into
Friday morning, though there is still plenty of uncertainty in
the timing with this system.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
As the surface low pressure system from last night exits out into
eastern Canada, a much cooler air mass will move in from the
northwest starting today. High temperatures today will be much
cooler than yesterday by 20-30 degrees, only climbing into the mid
to upper 40s. The below average temperatures will continue through
Tuesday night with persistent northwesterly flow over the region.
Overnight lows will be at their coldest Tuesday night behind a low
pressure system exiting out to the east with lows down into the low
to mid 20s. Some areas in northeastern Ohio and northwestern
Pennsylvania could see lows in the teens. Temperatures will begin to
moderate and climb back to around seasonally average as the upper
level trough exits to the east and west to southwesterly low level
flow takes hold on the region. By the end of the week, temperatures
will be back to being slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Mainly VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon as ceilings
remain just above MVFR (~3.5kft). Ceilings will briefly scatter
out later this evening, followed by another round of MVFR
ceilings and rain showers approaching from the west overnight
into Monday morning. Some snow may mix in at YNG/ERI where vsbys
are expected to fall as low as IFR at ERI Monday morning.
Elsewhere, rain showers are expected with primarily VFR vsbys.
Redevelopment of rain showers is expected towards the end of the
TAF period Monday afternoon.

Winds are generally out of the west this afternoon, 12 to 18
knots with periodic gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Winds will diminish
to 10 knots or less overnight, gradually shifting towards the
southwest, before increasing out of the west late Monday
morning, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely Monday night into Tuesday morning in
rain and/or snow showers, particularly across the snowbelt.
Non-VFR may return in scattered rain showers Thursday night into
Friday.


&&

.MARINE...
A trough with elevated winds will be over Lake Erie today. The Small
Craft Advisory has been expanded to the western basin and will be in
effect for all nearshore waters through this evening. Winds will
tend to be 20-25 knots with waves as high as 4 to 6 feet from
Cleveland eastward. A ridge builds over the lake tonight with
improving conditions. A stronger cold front will cross Lake Erie on
Monday night with winds shifting to the north at 15 to 25 knots.
This will yield waves of 4 to 7 feet east of the Lake Erie Islands,
and likely result in additional Small Craft Advisories. High
pressure builds east across the Great Lakes on Tuesday bringing
light wind and wave conditions. A warm front will lift back north on
Wednesday with winds shifting out of the south, then increasing into
the 15 to 25 knot range Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     >149.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...10