Toledo, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

328
FXUS61 KCLE 231742
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1242 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track from the Upper Midwest across the Central
Great Lakes, lifting a warm front north tonight, followed by a weak
cold front settling back south on Tuesday morning. High pressure
will build overhead later Tuesday. The high will shift to New
England but continue to influence the local weather through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1230 PM Update...
Adjusted temperatures with this update to reflect current
observations which are a bit cooler than previously forecast.
This has resulted in the high across far NE OH and NW PA
dropping to near freezing today. As a result, the initial onset
of showers across this area should remain primarily as snow
versus a rain/snow mix which was forecast before. With that
adjustment, there was not a significant difference in snowfall
expected, although it did push accumulations of 1-2" into
Ashtabula County. Will continue to monitor temperatures trends
through the evening for any additional changes needed.

930 AM Update...
With this update, slightly delayed the onset of rain showers
across the western portion of the CWA given the latest model
guidance. Onset of showers is now closer to 3PM, gradually
spreading east from there. Some models do hint at some light
snow showers across far NE OH and NW PA as the warm front pushes
north this morning, but given little support opted to keep any
mention out of the forecast. Aside from that, the temperature
and other components of the forecast remain unchanged.

630 AM Update...
Forecast remains on track for today. Only changes this morning
were to increase cloud cover and adjust hourly temperatures to
reflect trends.

Previous discussion...
A dry airmass is in place to start the near term as high pressure
departs to the east. Low pressure is over Iowa early this morning
and is expected to track east northeast across the Great Lakes
Region ahead of a shortwave trough. This system is forecast to
bring precipitation to the area late today into tonight as a
warm front lifts north. The 00Z soundings out of DTX and ILN do
a good job showing the dry layer in place below 800mb that must
be overcome for rain/snow to begin today. Given the residual dry
air and with the support of the models have slowed down the
timing of the precipitation slightly for most locations.
Temperatures will be quite chilly this morning with values in
the teens in the east but this slower onset gives surface
temperatures a little more time to warm. Southerly winds will
be breezy, pushing temperatures above the freezing mark for most
areas. The forecast calls for a brief rain/snow mix towards the
I-75 corridor between 3-6 PM before changing over to rain.
Precip type will be in question at times today as we start off
with an inversion around 1500 feet this morning with warmer air
aloft. A 40-45 knot low level jet will pump warmer air aloft
into the 1-3C range with some melting of frozen precipitation.
In addition, evaporational cooling is expected in the layer
below. Will carry a rain/snow mix towards Toledo and Bowling
Green, and then to the east and southeast from there. Locations
along and east of I-77 are more likely to see a rain/snow mix
with precipitation beginning after sunset and primarily snow for
the Youngstown area northeast into Pennsylvania. In addition
could also see a brief window of sleet at the onset as the
boundary layer rapidly cools. Accumulations range from about an
inch in Geauga County to 1-3 inches in NW Pennsylvania.

Winds shift to the west northwest late tonight into Tuesday. A mid-
level dry-slot will wrap into the system with most of the
precipitation done by morning. The exception is scattered snow
showers near Lake Erie where enhanced convergence along the
lakeshore will allow for additional snow showers from about
Lake/Geauga County eastward. Temperatures on Tuesday will be
similar to today, generally in the 35-40 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level ridging regime will begin to take shape across the
Central and Eastern CONUS Tuesday night through Thursday which
should favor a mostly dry forecast with slightly above average
temperatures expected. The only caveat is that there will be an
embedded weakening upper-level shortwave trough moving east across
the Great Lakes on Wednesday which could kick off isolated to
scattered light rain showers, though confidence remains low on
coverage.

Near to slightly above-average temperatures are expected for the
short term period with highs in the low to mid-40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The first half of the long term period appears to favor a mostly dry
and quiescent forecast as broad upper-level ridging encompasses much
of the Eastern CONUS through Friday and perhaps into the first half
of Saturday. Confidence continues to increase on a more active
pattern developing by the end of the weekend into early next week as
ensemble guidance is in relatively good agreement of an upper-level
trough moving east across the Great Lakes on Sunday. Confidence
remains lower on exact surface low pressure evolution, but opted to
go likely PoPs on Sunday given the upper-level trough passage.

Above-average temperatures will dominate the long term period with
no wintry precipitation in sight. Highs in the mid to upper 40s on
Friday will rise into the low to mid-50s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Widespread VFR conditions this afternoon will gradually diminish
as a low pressure system moves a cold front across the area
tonight. Ahead of the boundary, widespread showers are expected
to push east, initially impacting western terminals around 20Z
with onset of showers for eastern terminals closer to 00Z. The
bulk of these showers will remain rain along and west of I71,
with rain/snow mix expected across the central terminals, and
snow expected for eastern terminals. Will continue to monitor
the trends in temperatures, but cannot rule out a few flakes
mixing in across the entire area.

As the begin, ceilings will drop to MVFR with visibilities
generally in that range as well. Behind the cold front,
conditions will further deteriorate to IFR ceilings and
visibilities, possible to LIFR where the heaviest rain or snow
showers persist. These conditions will gradually improve back to
MVFR Tuesday morning, but terminals east of I71 will linger in
IFR through the end of the period.

In addition, a strong LLJ will push northeast across the area,
increasing south-southwest winds to 10-15 knots this afternoon,
gusting up to 25 knots. Local enhancement of winds is possible
at KERI due to downsloping. These winds will gradually diminish
to 5-10 knots and shift from the west-northwest Tuesday morning
behind the departing cold front. One exception to this is
KYNG where wind gusts seem less likely, but with the strong LLJ
opted to include LLWS of 40 knots from 23Z today to 06Z
Tuesday. After 06Z, the LLJ should shift east and winds of 5-10
knots from west-southwest will become dominant.

Outlook...Non-VFR is possible with scattered rain showers on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the far eastern basin of Lake
Erie later this afternoon into Tuesday morning, resulting from
elevated south to southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to
30 knots ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Opted to
exclude all other nearshore zones given lower confidence in coverage
of 20-knot winds coupled with the marginal offshore wind direction.

Otherwise, a relatively quiet marine period is in store through the
end of the week with light offshore flow of generally less than 10
knots expected.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...Campbell/KEC
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Kahn