Parma, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

290
FXUS61 KCLE 270157
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
957 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak quasi-stationary front located across the lower Great
Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley will drift around the area through
Monday. An upper level ridge will build from the Central U.S.
into the Ohio Valley Monday and Tuesday with hotter weather. A
stronger cold front will arrive midweek with cooler and drier
weather for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THe forecast area has been fairly worked over with several
batches of showers and storms during the afternoon and evening
hours and some stability settling in with darkness. A couple
batches of storms continue along the I-70 corridor and these may
continue to clip the south periphery of the forecast area.
However, shower activity will be fairly scattered tonight and
have paired back some of the likely and categorical PoPs,
especially since a large majority of the forecast area is dry at
the present time. There are hints that activity will fill in
more toward sunrise as the front shift back south across the
area and have likely PoPs returning toward the end of the
tonight period.

Previous Discussion...
The main weather message for the near term period includes more
very warm and muggy conditions in the forecast along with
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The higher rain
chances will favor the afternoon and evening hours associated
with diurnal convection from maximum heating.

We have a very moist, tropical-like airmass across the Ohio
Valley and lower Great Lakes this weekend. Precipitable water
ranges from 1.80" to 2.00"+ which is near the maximum value for
this time of year. There is a weak quasi-stationary frontal
boundary located across the lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio
Valley this afternoon. This weak surface front will drift or
meander near our area through Sunday night. There is a large
upper level ridge currently over much of the southeastern U.S.
Our area is on the northern edge of this ridge and the mid level
steering flow is basically parallel to the weak surface front.
MLCAPE values are 1500-2500 J/KG this afternoon and DCAPE of
700-1000 J/KG. Effective deep-layer shear is modest at 25-30
knots. This atmospheric setup will favor scattered convection
with heavy rainfall rates and likely some gusty winds. There
could be a couple strong to severe storms that may produced a
few isolated damaging wind gusts this afternoon into the
evening. SPC has the area highlighted in a marginal risk for
severe weather today. WPC has the area highlighted in a marginal
to slight risk for excessive rainfall and flash flood threat.

Most of the convection will gradually decrease in intensity and
coverage as the evening progresses into the overnight hours.
Widely scattered or chance POPs will remain through the
overnight into Sunday morning. The nearly stalled front will
again be the focus for redevelopment of convection over northern
Ohio into NWPA Sunday. POPs will increase as well towards midday
and the afternoon Sunday. Rain chances will start to taper off
from north to south towards the evening as the surface boundary
sags southward into central Ohio. High temperatures will climb
back into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees Sunday afternoon.
Heat index values will be in the upper 90s. Convection on Sunday
will be similar in nature as today with localized heavy rainfall
and gusty winds possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The heat and humidity will crank back up for Monday and Tuesday.
That weak front will finally wash out and the large upper ridge
over the southern CONUS will build into the Ohio Valley for a
couple days. Our rain chances will go down to slight POPs but
the main weather story for Monday and Tuesday will be the return
of excessive heat. High temperatures will likely range from the
upper 80s to lower/mid 90s. Surface dewpoints will be in the
lower to middle/upper 70s with very humid conditions. Heat index
values will range from the upper 90s to 104 degrees potentially.
We will monitor trends over the next day or so for a possible
Heat Advisory headline needed for the Monday and Tuesday
timeframe.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some relief from the heat and humidity will arrive with a
stronger cold front pushing southward across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley on Wednesday. We will increase POPs for
scattered showers and storms along and ahead of the cold front
midweek. A large upper level trough will carve out across the
Great Lakes into the Northeast CONUS for the end of next week. A
large surface high pressure system will drop southward from
southern Canada into the Great Lakes Thursday through Saturday.
Temperatures will be very pleasant with lower humidity levels.
High temperatures will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s.
Overnight low temperatures will be very nice in the 50s, away
from the lakeshore, for a few nights.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Unsettled weather continues as periods of showers and
thunderstorms impact terminals through the TAF window.
Scattered showers with some isolated thunderstorms are
gradually moving east across terminals this evening. Highest
confidence in TSRA will be KCLE/KMFD and points east. Lower
confidence in VCTS/TSRA at KTOL and KFDY through the rest of
tonight. Expect for this round of showers and thunderstorms to
exit late tonight. Another round of showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and early evening.
Low confidence in exact timing and location of thunderstorms
so opted to continue PROB30 for terminals south of the Lake Erie
lakeshore.

Generally anticipate VFR across terminals with showers
and thunderstorms likely reducing conditions to MVFR at times
through tonight. Given saturated low levels, today`s rainfall,
and light winds overnight, patchy fog may develop late tonight
into early Sunday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible through Sunday in scattered showers
and thunderstorms with a boundary lingering in the area. Non-
VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will generally be variable and 10 knots or less through
early evening before shifting to the west/southwest and
increasing to 10 to 15 knots later tonight through Sunday
morning. Winds should diminish to 10 knots or less in the
western basin by Sunday afternoon, but winds and waves may
remain elevated in the eastern basin through the afternoon.
Southwest winds under 10 knots are expected late Sunday through
much of Monday before onshore flow develops and winds increase
to about 10 knots behind a cold front Tuesday into Wednesday.
Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots are expected as high pressure
begins to build into the region on Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...13
MARINE...15