Mentor, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

603
FXUS61 KCLE 201115
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
615 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Milder today, another cold front tonight and colder Sunday,
then high pressure early next week and milder into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure influences from the south as low levels are beginning
to warm advect in this progressive pattern for the southern Great
Lakes. Quick moving upper level tracks through the northern Great
late Saturday into Saturday night with a surface cold front coming
through around the 00Z Sunday time frame. Ahead of the cold front,
temperatures will have experienced a rebound from the raw day on
Friday, and will be back above freezing again with upper 30s east to
lower 40s west. Late Saturday/Saturday night cold front will largely
be a dry system, but the cold advective northwesterly flow sets up
another brief lake effect pattern for Sunday after 12Z. This will be
low QPF/snowfall in the forecast, and should only see around 1-2
inches in the northwesterly flow favored snowbelt regions. The sharp
cold air advection at the surface in the wake of the cold front
brings temperatures back down below freezing area wide for highs on
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure moving in Sunday night will mark the end of the back
and forth pattern of temperatures with a wholesale change of the
longwave pattern across the entire CONUS. A ridge aloft will begin
building over the Rio Grande Valley and western Gulf Coastal region
that will extend northward through the plains. This will not prevent
systems from affecting the CWA, and will see a warm front with low
end POPs Monday night followed by a weak cold front Tuesday. But
Arctic air should remain locked north of the lower Great Lakes as we
head into mid week in what will be a significantly milder pattern
upcoming for the region heading into the long term portion of the
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level ridging to the west remains dominant through midweek/end
of the week with an expected surge of significantly milder air for
the 25th/26th. 850mb temperatures will climb into the lower teens,
which should translates to 50s area wide for both days. Likely will
not see a more seasonal type airmass until late weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR expected through the TAF period for most. There is a low
probability for MVFR ceilings after 6-9z tonight behind a cold
front, mainly at ERI, CLE, and YNG, though confidence is too low
for inclusion at the moment. Minor lake effect snow could
develop over far Northeast OH and Northwest PA near the end of
the TAF period, with some potential for localized visibility
restrictions.

4-10kt south-southeast winds early this morning will turn south
and increase to 10-18kt with gusts to 25kt this afternoon. Winds
will lose their gustiness tonight, though as a cold front moves
through overnight tonight winds will shift more west and could
gust to 25kt, especially at northern terminals. With a strong
low-level jet working through the area today and limited mixing,
at least until the afternoon, have some low-level wind shear
included for at least a few hours at most TAF sites.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings behind a cold front
on Sunday. Non-VFR possible in rain and/or snow showers Monday
night into early Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
South-southwest winds will be on the increase today ahead of a cold
front that will cross Lake Erie the first half of tonight. Expect
southerly winds to increase to 20-30kt, strongest in the open waters
of the central and eastern basin late this morning through early
this evening. Winds shift west tonight as the cold front crosses and
continue at 20-30kt, strongest across the eastern basin. Waves are
expected to peak at 6-12 feet across much of the central and eastern
basin this evening through early Sunday. Winds and waves gradually
subside from west to east Sunday into Sunday night as high pressure
quickly builds into the upper Ohio Valley. There are some questions
regarding how well very strong flow aloft mixes down over the
relatively colder waters of Lake Erie ahead of the cold front. The
greatest potential for strong winds to mix down and possibly reach
gale force will likely be the first half of tonight along and just
behind the cold front. That said, the majority of reliable guidance
keeps winds just below sustained gale at the standard 10m height on
Lake Erie with some typically "hotter" models showing a brief gale
between about 0-6z on the east end. While a brief gale can not be
ruled out on the east end in that window, a high-end Small Craft
Advisory seems to better capture the flavor of this event. Those
have been issued and kick in quickly at 14z/9 AM this morning, with
the gale watch for the east end dropped in coordination with BUF.

After quiet conditions on Monday, the next frontal passage will take
place on Tuesday. A marginal Small Craft Advisory may be needed for
parts of the lake with that frontal passage.

Ice is packed against the Canadian shoreline in the western basin,
with some ice also packed against the western side of the Lake Erie
Islands. Some ice exists east-northeast of the Islands in the
central basin. It is expected that another round of windier weather
and generally milder temperatures will continue to shift around and
ultimately shrink ice over Lake Erie over the next several days.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for LEZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LEZ146>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for LEZ149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sullivan