Mentor, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

008
FXUS61 KCLE 150107
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
907 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly builds in from the north tonight through
Sunday. A frontal boundary over the Ohio Valley will lift north
as a warm front Monday night as low pressure moves into the
Great Lakes region. A cold front will move east across the area
on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
900 PM EDT Update...
Skies have cleared across most of the area so have decreased
cloud cover across portions of northern Ohio and NW PA with this
update. As of now, it looks like the best conditions for patchy
fog late tonight into Sunday morning will be at inland locations
along and east of the I-71 corridor.

Previous Discussion...
A negatively tilted upper-level trough extends from northeast
Indiana towards the Mid-Mississippi Valley (AR/MO/IL/KY/TN
area). An area of confluence from the central part of this
trough into the northeastern quadrant (which is collocated with
the surface stationary front) will yield a narrow corridor of
shower and thunderstorms into the southern part of our forecast
area across central Ohio with a few isolated showers elsewhere.
Coverage is expected to be a lot less than what we saw across
northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania earlier, though there
could be isolated instances minor flooding where any
thunderstorms are able to persist, especially given very moist
environment and somewhat slow storm motions of around 10-20
knots (depending on exact location).

The stationary front gradually sags south of the forecast area and a
drier airmass associated with high pressure builds in from the
north. Aside from some isolated showers skirting across the southern
part of the forecast area Sunday afternoon, the rest of the near
term period should be precipitation-free. Patchy fog may be possible
in some locations tonight and again Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
That front gradually lifts north across the area Monday afternoon
into Monday night, with persistent southwest flow advecting
increasingly warm, moist air into the region Monday night through
Tuesday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be possible
Monday afternoon in our south and east, becoming increasingly more
likely by Tuesday and Tuesday night. Most model guidance has Tuesday
with relatively benign thunderstorm activity Tuesday
afternoon/evening due to modest instability and rather limited
shear. The 12Z NAM randomly has like 1500-2500 J/kg MUCAPE and 40
knots of deep-layer shear, which is a massive outlier compared to
most other model guidance. It develops this in response to a compact
shortwave trough currently over the Great Plains region, with
convective influence causing it to become more intense than would
otherwise expect. Currently going to throw out this model due to it
being an extreme outlier but could be worth watching in the coming
days.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper-level trough approaches from the west as it moves into the
Great Lakes region Wednesday into Wednesday night. This is generally
when warmth, moisture, and synoptic-scale lift will peak for the
most likely precipitation chances of the work week (60-70% PoPs on
Wednesday and Wednesday night). Based on current model guidance,
there is a good chance for severe weather, with MUCAPE around 1500-
2000 J/kg and 30 knots of deep-layer shear. Current D5 SPC outlook
has primary severe weather risk located to our west, though the past
few runs of model guidance have a slightly more open trough rather
than a closed low, progressing a bit faster (shifting the threat a
bit farther east). 00Z GFS ML severe weather probabilities are
similar to what SPC has, though 00Z ENS ML has severe weather
probabilities maximized farther east over the Ohio Valley, which
better matches the trends observed in the broader model data. Either
way, Wednesday will be worth watching.

By Thursday, most model guidance have the low and associated upper-
level trough into eastern Ontario and southern Quebec with the cold
front moving through. Any showers and thunderstorms will likely be
associated with either the primary cold front or a secondary cold
front/trough during the afternoon/evening hours. It`s possible there
could be a few stronger storms, especially if the slower model
guidance is correct, though it seems unlikely as a reversal in
trends would be needed. Friday should should quiet as high pressure
builds in, and despite the cold frontal passage, temperatures really
won`t cool down too much.

Saturday onward looks active as persist southwest flows advect warm,
moist air to the region. Already have mid to upper 80s in the
temperature forecast with our first 90 degree days possible late
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Skies have cleared considerably and most locations are VFR with
scattered MVFR in lower clouds across southern and southeastern
terminals. This trend will likely persist for the first few
hours of the TAF period before lower ceilings and patchy fog
begin to develop across the majority of the area overnight. Most
TAF sites have a shot at MVFR/IFR conditions overnight into
early Sunday morning with the highest confidence at
KMFD/KCAK/KYNG and lower confidence at KFDY/KCLE. KERI may be a
bit challenging early Sunday morning; winds may be a touch too
high for lower stratus/fog development, but some guidance places
non-VFR conditions right along the lakeshore for a period
overnight. Opted for a more optimistic VFR forecast for KERI
with a TEMPO for MVFR conditions early Sunday morning; will make
changes if confidence increases in either direction. Flight
conditions will gradually improve Sunday morning into Sunday
afternoon with VFR anticipated at nearly all terminals by mid to
late afternoon Sunday. Can`t rule out a few showers clipping
KCAK/KYNG Sunday afternoon and evening, but confidence in precip
will be highest to the south of all local TAF sites.

Winds will be out of the east/northeast at 5 to 10 knots through
the majority of the period with light and variable winds
anticipated inland from Lake Erie overnight into early Sunday.
Gusts to 15 to 20 knots are possible during peak diurnal mixing
Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in patchy fog and lower ceilings
early Monday morning. Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and
thunderstorms Monday through Thursday, best chance Tuesday
afternoon and Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
A nearly stationary boundary lingers south of the lakeshore today,
allowing for winds to persist from the northeast at 15-20 knots this
afternoon. These conditions have allowed for waves along the
lakeshore to build to 2-4 feet, with highest waves across the
central and western basins. Opting to maintain the Small Craft
Advisory through 00Z this evening given that wave heights will
continue to reach around 4 feet, but opting to get rid of the Beach
Hazard given the wind direction and moderate risk for rip currents.

As a high pressure system nudges south, winds tonight will weaken to
5-10 knots but remain from the northeast. A brief increase in winds
up to 15 knots may occur Sunday afternoon, but should be very
marginal for any additional headlines needed. By Sunday night, the
high pressure again becomes dominant with northeast winds of 5-10
knots. Winds finally shift on Tuesday to gain a more south-southwest
direction as a warm front lifts north across the area. As the parent
low moves across the region midweek, winds are expected to increase
from the southwest to 15-20 knots and will be another period to
watch for additional headlines.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15/Saunders
NEAR TERM...15/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...15
MARINE...04