Mason, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

312
FXUS61 KILN 150418
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1218 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will move slowly east across the Ohio
Valley tonight through Sunday, leading to occasional showers and a
chance for thunderstorms. Temperatures will gradually warm through
mid week, but daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will
continue.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TODAY/...
The very slow moving surface boundary is showing slow progression
south, and is currently over SE IN, SW OH and extending through south
central Ohio. A weak low pressure center is migrating along the
frontal boundary and is currently over far SW Ohio. Thunderstorms
activity lingers, but rainfall intensity diminishing. Flood Watch for
flash flooding has been allowed to expire, with a couple of FFWs
still in effect, but rates diminishing so conditions should improve
within the next hour or two.

Instability diminishes overnight, but scattered precip coverage
should remain, though sinking south with the boundary progression.
Overnight lows still on track from lower 60s in the north and upper
60s in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The frontal boundary will push slowly south Sunday into Sunday night
as the mid level trough axis shifts slowly east across the upper
Ohio Valley. As we slightly destabilize again through the day, expect
scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to become more
widespread Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening, with the
highest pops across our southeast. The pcpn should then dissipate
through Sunday night as we lose the instability and the trough axis
moves off to our east. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees with lows Sunday night in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The region remains under a relatively weak flow pattern aloft at the
start of the extended period. A weak shortwave looks to move through
the larger flow Monday, providing a resurgence of deep moisture
(PWATs back to 140% of normal). At the surface, Tds remain in the
upper 60s/low 70s with daytime high temps reaching the low/mid 80s,
so we remain in "the air is soup" mode. As the shortwave moves
through, scattered showers and storms are once again introduced into
the forecast for Monday afternoon and evening, potentially lingering
into Tuesday morning. No real signal for severe threat- very little
forcing/ shear.

By mid-week, we`ll be on the cusp of a broader pattern change thanks
to a few different factors... First, to our north, a low pressure
system scooting by the Hudson Bay will drag a weak surface cold
front all the way down through the Mid-West. This will be the focus
for redevelopment/intensification of a secondary area of low
pressure that will be moving off the leeward side of the Rockies.
This secondary feature will be the next organized weather system to
the region.

Surface flow turns southerly again by Tuesday afternoon, pumping
additional moisture and warmth into the region. Overnight lows
Tuesday night only fall to the upper 60s/low 70s. Thanks to this
continued WAA, Wednesday looks to be the warmest and muggiest day of
the week. Feels like temps have been tickling Advisory criteria in
spots the last few runs, but we`re not quite there yet. As the
system to our west draws closer, we`ll be open warm sectored for a
period (likely on Wednesday) before the trailing cold front swings
through (Wednesday night? Thursday?). Given the ample warm sector
and more potent forcing/shear associated with this system, this does
open up the possibility for a severe weather threat. However, timing
will play a large role in how things evolve and we`re still a bit
far out for details.

After the system pulls off to the east, we should experience a brief
reprieve in moisture and maybe a few peeks of sunshine to end the
work week in the post frontal subsidence regime.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows an east west oriented frontal boundary
draped across the area. Moderate instability developed across
southern Ohio/southeast Indiana and northern KY - south of the
frontal boundary. This has led to scattered showers and thunderstorms
ahead of weak low pressure that is moving into the Tri-state region.
As the low moves east of the area expect shower/thunderstorms to
diminish this evening. The front will slip a little south overnight.

Lingering low level moisture will lead to widespread MVFR cigs
dropping to IFR later tonight into early Sunday morning. Some MVFR
fog development will also be possible overnight into early Sunday.
Ceilings will lift back to MVFR later Sunday morning and then trend
to VFR through the afternoon.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again be possible on Sunday
with the best coverage of storms across the south during the
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Several rounds of storms possible through Wednesday,
causing periods of MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings and visibilities.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AR