Cleveland Heights, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

773
FXUS61 KCLE 030819
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
419 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and frontal boundaries oscillating back and forth
through the area will bring waves of showers and thunderstorms
with moderate to heavy rain at times through the weekend.
Conditions then turn cold early next week with light snow
possibly making a brief return.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The synoptic scale upper level pattern through the near term, and at
least the short term also, is going to continue to be dominated by a
persistent deep trough over the four corners region with
southwesterly flow through the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
This will keep a continuous feed of low level moisture into the
southern Great Lakes with oscillating frontal boundaries carrying
waves of low pressure through them, and thus, multiple rounds of
rain. For the current near term period, cold front will push the
extensive line of convection through the CWA by morning, with
lingering light amounts through around the noon hour. After this
second wave of moderate/heavy rainfall since Wednesday morning, will
get another needed hydro break with some recovery time this
afternoon. 18Z Thursday to 00Z Friday is largely dry with POPs
getting reintroduced this evening. Cold front will begin to lift
back northward through the Ohio Valley as a warm front Thursday
night into Friday, although staying south of the CWA. Strong low/mid
level frontogenesis sets up in this area north of the warm front.
The biggest question will be the northward extent, in which the NAM
is most aggressive in putting the highest concentration of the
low/mid level forcing in our CWA. Much of the other guidance keeps
it more south of the CWA, and will go with this favored solution for
now. Another brief period of drier weather for Friday keeping most
of the precipitation south through 21Z or so, then lifting back
north again as the warm front nears the southern CWA border with yet
another round of rain into the short term forecast period.
Temperatures remain on the milder side for today, but cool into the
50s for Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The low and mid level flow largely remains parallel to the frontal
boundary cutting through the CWA, in this case, a warm front that
continues to slowly push northward. This is the next round of
convection/rain Friday night, assisted by the low level jet over
65kts again now that the CWA is back in the warm sector. Cold front
then drops back through again 12-18Z Saturday. One final wave of low
pressure to ride up along the frontal boundary towards the Ohio
Valley, but by now, the four corners trough is exiting, weakening,
and now awaiting absorption into a larger trough axis to the north
that is dominating the middle third of the country. With the upper
level energy exiting, the surface low pressure system will do so as
well. Colder air will also begin to make its presence known Sunday
as cold air advection has a better chance to anchor into place over
the southern Great Lakes. Prior to the cold front Saturday, 60s
should be prevalent for the CWA. Total QPF from this morning through
Saturday night remain at 2.5 to 4 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Colder in the long term and back into a snow shower potential after
a sharp cold front drops southward through the lakes Monday with a
reinforcing shot of colder air. Late Monday night into Tuesday
becomes more winter like, and snow shower potential ramps up,
possibly for the Tuesday morning commute. Cannot ignore the
potential for light accumulations during this time frame, and highs
largely in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the CWA. Improvement
expected Wednesday and Thursday with gradual airmass modification
under high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A line of thunderstorms between I-71/I-77 continues to move
east across the area, generally consisting of ceilings around
2-5kft, visibilities in the 2-6SM range, and the potential for
gusts in the 30-40 knot range. General tendency should be for
thunderstorms to weaken in intensity as they move east. The
cold front will move through the area late in the TAF period
with rain coverage decreasing and winds veering while remaining
with westerly gusts in the 20-30 knot range. MVFR ceilings
should still remain for a couple hours after the bulk of the
thunderstorms exit this morning but should quickly improve to
VFR conditions by mid to late morning. Rain showers return from
the south after 00Z this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings may continue across the region
Thursday night into Friday with some non-VFR visibility possible
in showers and storms, mainly towards the southern part of the
forecast area. Non-VFR more likely areawide in showers and
thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday with non-VFR ceilings
continuing into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will gradually ease out of the southwest to 10-15kts
later today before turning westerly and then northwesterly
tonight at the same rate. Expect constantly varying wind
directions around 10- 15kts thanks to frontal boundaries that
travel north and south across Lake Erie with areas of low
pressure also moving through, and wave heights averaging 1-3ft
through the weekend. A late Monday cold front brings northwest
winds 20kts Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ003-006>011-017>021-
     027>032-036>038-047.
PA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ142>145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26