Cleveland Heights, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

193
FXUS61 KCLE 081945
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
345 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will continue to lift across the area tonight. A
cold front will cross the area Monday with a trough lingering
over the region through Tuesday. High pressure is expected to
build over the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday before a cold
front drops south towards the area by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of about 3 PM EDT, a weak surface low and warm front were
located across eastern Ohio/western Pennsylvania. These features
will lift east of the area this evening, allowing any associated
precip to exit with them. A few stray showers and perhaps a
rumble of thunder are possible behind the low late this
afternoon into this evening, but generally expect a lull in
precipitation once stratiform rain exits late this
afternoon/early this evening. Some patchy fog may develop across
inland NE OH/NW PA tonight, but any fog should diminish as
winds increase early Monday morning.

The lull in precipitation will be brief as a cold front crosses
the area Monday. A line of showers will likely move into the
I-75 corridor by 08Z/4 AM Monday before reaching Erie/Youngstown
by early to mid-afternoon. Rain will most likely exit to the
east with the front late evening, however the arrival of an
upper trough axis may push another (weakening) round of showers
into western zones Monday night. A few thunderstorms are
possible Monday morning, however instability will likely be
somewhat limited until peak diurnal instability late
morning/afternoon. The best chance of thunderstorms will
generally be along and east of the I-71 corridor, but there`s
still some uncertainty in when and where convection will
initiate and how much clearing/destabilization occurs before
then. Either way, it won`t take much for organized convection to
develop since effective bulk shear values will be in the 40-50
knot range as the front crosses the CWA.

As of now, it appears that instability/shear will be best
aligned east of the I-77 corridor Monday afternoon, where there
is currently a Slight Risk for severe weather (as shown in the
SWODY2). Given the marginal CAPE/high shear values, damaging
wind gusts will be the main threat, but there is still a low-end
risk of hail and a few tornadoes. A slower frontal progression
may result in a westward expansion of the severe weather risk,
but morning cloud cover could result in lower instability and an
overall lower severe weather risk. PWATs could be as high as
the 90th percentile (1.5 inches) for this time of year so heavy
rainfall rates are possible, especially in thunderstorms. Precip
should generally be progressive, however some high res guidance
members suggest that localized spots may receive up to 2 inches
of rain in a short period of time in eastern zones which could
result in localized flooding.

Tonight`s lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with highs
most likely climbing into the 70s on Monday. Rain/extensive
cloud cover could result in slightly cooler highs. Cold air
advection behind the cold front will result in overnight lows in
the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The deep mid/upper trough across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
regions Tuesday morning will be very progressive, lifting into New
England by evening as broad mid/upper ridging centered over the
eastern Rockies and Plains expands eastward. This will allow a large
surface high to build east into the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys
late Tuesday. Daytime heating beneath the lingering cold pool aloft
will generate a few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday aided by a final shortwave dropping through in the early
afternoon. Kept chance to slight chance PoPs for this potential, but
conditions will be completely dry by evening as the high builds in.

The broad upstream mid/upper ridge will continue to strengthen
across the Plains Wednesday and Wednesday night, with the surface
high taking up residence over the Mid Atlantic and Appalachians.
This will set up broad WNW mid/upper flow across the southern Great
Lakes on the far northeastern periphery of the ridge for mid to late
week, with SW low-level flow and resultant warm/moist advection.
Temperatures and humidity levels will increase in response to this
more typical summertime pattern, but the chances for convection
remain more uncertain and lower confidence. All deterministic
guidance suggests a rather potent mid/upper shortwave dropping
through the WNW flow across the northern and eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday night or Thursday, which could sag a cold frontal boundary
southward toward the region. The bulk of the forcing will likely be
north of our area, but with the front potentially sagging in from
the north and pooling moisture/instability, added slight chance PoPs
in far NE Ohio and NW PA Wednesday night.

Highs in the low/mid 70s Tuesday will warm into the upper 70s/low
80s Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will drop into the mid/upper 50s,
with generally low/mid 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Warm and humid conditions will continue Thursday along with
chance/slight chance PoPs for convection as the frontal boundary
remains nearby. Uncertainty increases Friday through next weekend as
a series of shortwaves start to deepen the longwave mid/upper trough
across the eastern Great Lakes, resulting in the cold frontal
boundary slowly sagging through the region as the mid/upper ridge in
the Plains retrogrades farther west. At the same time, a closed low
stuck underneath the broad Plains ridge will drift toward the
Mississippi Valley and potentially advect deeper moisture into the
sagging frontal boundary, but guidance differs on the movement of
this closed low and timing of features. Stuck with NBM PoPs and
temperatures through the period, with elevated chance for
showers/storms Friday into the weekend, peaking during afternoon and
evening heating. Highs in the low/mid 80s Thursday will gradually
cool into the upper 70s/low 80s Friday and mainly mid/upper 70s
Saturday and Sunday given the potential clouds, precip, and
deepening trough across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Mixed bag of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions in haze/rain/mist are
present across the area as of about 18Z. Rain will continue to
lift east/northeast across NE OH/NW PA through this afternoon,
although a few trailing showers can`t be ruled out this
afternoon into this evening. The majority of the precipitation
should exit the region by no later than 00Z this evening.
Ceilings may be a bit finicky throughout the TAF period;
several guidance members suggest that widespread IFR conditions
will persist across NE OH/NW PA through this evening (and
possibly through the remainder of the TAF period), but obs have
generally been a bit more optimistic than guidance for the
majority of today. Confidence in IFR conditions is highest at
KYNG late tonight as low stratus and possibly some patchy fog
likely develop due to lingering low level moisture and light
winds, but can`t rule out a period of IFR conditions at
KYNG/KCAK/KERI through tonight.

The next round of rain will move into the vicinity of KTOL/KFDY
after 08Z/4AM Monday as a cold front approaches from the west.
The rain will move east across the area through Monday morning
before likely reaching KERI by the end of the TAF period.
Thunder chances are relatively low Monday morning, but have
introduced PROB30 for thunderstorms at KMFD/KCLE close to the
very end of the TAF period. The better chances for thunder east
of these locations will be after 18Z Monday. There`s still some
uncertainty in where the thunderstorms will initiate, but will
continue to refine timing in subsequent updates.
Showers/thunderstorms will likely produce at least scattered
non-VFR ceilings and visibilities.

Winds will be variable and under 10 knots through this evening
before shifting to the southwest and increasing to about 10
knots later tonight through the rest of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR is possible with a line of showers and
thunderstorms that is expected to move east across the area on
Monday. Non-VFR due to lower ceilings could linger into Monday
night. Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally quiet conditions are expected on Lake Erie through the
week as pressure gradients remain weak. SW winds will increase to 5-
15 knots tonight and Monday as a cold front crosses the region,
turning WSW and increasing to 10-20 knots behind a secondary cold
front Monday night into Tuesday. This will build wave heights to 2
to 3 feet in the central and eastern basins, but as of now,
conditions should stay below Small Craft headline criteria. Winds
will back more SW and remain mostly around 10-20 knots Tuesday night
and Wednesday before decreasing to 5-10 knots Wednesday night and
Thursday. Winds gradually turn E to NE behind a sagging cold front
Thursday night and Friday, with speeds increasing to 10-20
knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...15
MARINE...Garuckas